WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cyclenall]

Dora is my favorite hurricane this decade in the Epac. I have even better time tracking this than Hector. Had a pinhole twice now annular as many expected. No mention of rapid intensification in the discussion.

Does the eye temperature have to be uniform area-wise or is it just the absolute warmest spot?

[Kingarabian]

Just caught in the abyss that is almost Cat.5 but is not. I would say 150MPH. Fantastic show it put on. From a pinhole eye to this.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the EPAC has finally had its most intense hurricane since Barbara in 2019 (finally a hurricane with a sub-945 mbar pressure and that was also a solid Category 4 hurricane )

[Yellow Evan]

Can see the southeasterly shear impinging on the CDO.

[weeniepatrol]

Can see the southeasterly shear impinging on the CDO.

That SWly flow is quite obvious but resilient Dora wants to continue exploring.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

Satellite images indicate Dora still has the classic structure of
a well-organized hurricane with a clear eye. The initial intensity
is held at 125 kt, which is closest to SAB and TAFB final T-numbers
of T6.5/127 kt.

Dora has maintained its westward heading at a slightly faster 18
kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged. A building ridge
to the north of the hurricane will steer Dora to the west at a
similar speed for the next several days, keeping it well south of
Hawaii. The latest track forecast is very close to the previous
prediction with only minor updates.

The storm is currently in an environment of light vertical wind
shear, over relatively warm waters, and still exhibiting annular
structural characteristics. Global models forecast Dora to move
into a drier environment early next week and the wind shear is
expected to increase by the end of the forecast period. Therefore,
gradual weakening is predicted, though the intensity forecast is on
the higher end of the guidance. As stated in the previous
discussion, intensity fluctuations are possible given the storm's
small size and structure. The NHC intensity forecast is quite
similar to the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 13.1N 138.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 12.8N 144.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 12.5N 152.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 12.4N 155.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 12.5N 159.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 13.1N 167.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 14.6N 174.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[Yellow Evan]

Still super symmetrical with a 17-18C eye - cloud tops just warmer due to lower tropopause.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

A little less symmetrical now but I doubt it has weakened much.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 6.5.

TXPZ21 KNES 061228
TCSENP

A. 05E (DORA)

B. 06/1200Z

C. 13.0N

D. 139.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT OF 6.5
AFTER A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 6.0 DUE TO A SLOW DEVELOPING TREND
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PT AGREES WITH DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2023080612, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1392W, 120, 948, HU

[Hurricane2022]

It's sad that current satellite data only supports an estimate of 120 - 125 kt. I think Dora is likely a C5 hurricane.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1688121201858887680

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Eugene is on the verge of becoming a hurricane this morning.
Scatterometer data from overnight indicated that the maximum winds
were 55-60 kt, and a GMI microwave pass now shows the development of
a partial eyewall. The storm isn't as impressive on conventional
satellite imagery, however, with the central dense overcast
weakening during the past several hours. Intensity estimates range
from 45-60 kt, and 60 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed, based
on the improved microwave structure and overnight scatterometer
data.

The storm has today to strengthen in marginally conducive
conditions before it crosses over very cool waters overnight.
Eugene should weaken steadily on Monday and Tuesday due to the lack
of instability over the cool waters. Most of the guidance shows
Eugene losing deep convection in 36-48 hours over sub-23C waters,
so post-tropical status is moved up to day 2 in this forecast. No
significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, which
remains close to the intensity consensus.

Microwave data show that Eugene is moving faster to the west-
northwest at about 16 kt. This general motion is anticipated with
some reduction in forward speed during the next day or two while the
storm moves on the southern side of a mid-level ridge. Eugene
should reach the western periphery of the ridge on Tuesday, which
will cause the weakening system to turn and move more slowly
northward. Model guidance has trended westward on this advisory,
and the official forecast follows the trend at longer range. The
global models degenerate the system into a trough in 3-4 days.

Eugene will likely produce areas of heavy rains and gusty winds
across southern portions of the Baja California Sur today as it
passes to the south of the peninsula. Interests there should
monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 21.8N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.9N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.2N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 25.2N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 26.0N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 09/0000Z 27.0N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z 28.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Hurricane2022]

Dora has reached the central Pacific basin and the next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at 2100 UTC/1100 AM HST. Users will not need to go exploring for future information on Dora, which will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov.

[Ntxw]

https://imageshack.com/i/pmVg8UZEp
https://imageshack.com/i/pmz4m8jfp
It's sad that current satellite data only supports an estimate of 120 - 125 kt. I think Dora is likely a C5 hurricane.

I've felt this way as well. Dora has given us some of the best views of a west-tracker we could ask for, top tier for days. Fully expect this to continue now that is annular. There is another shot at C5 when she goes poleward south of Hawaii.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

This is just so stable.

[Fancy1002]

Let’s all give it up to Dora for exceeding everyone’s expectations.

[Ntxw]