2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[SFLcane]

The CPC hazards forecast has areas on weeks 2 and 3 in Western Atlantic and MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/SU37TzZ.png

Hi Luis, hmmm that's interesting right on cue to start cv season.

[WiscoWx02]

As mentioned, the 12Z GEFS has strong Caribbean shear starting August 12th. That continues for about a week but then decreases to near normal Aug 20-23 while the strong shear zone shifts just to the north of the Greater Antilles.
Meanwhile as SFLcane showed, E US 500 mb ridging takes over on this run 8/19-8/23, which if it were to verify would potentially open the door to the E US for anything that might be in the W Atlantic then. Hopefully that would be shortlived if it happens.

Yes indeed looks like quite a bit of shear. Here is the 18Z GFS animation from 120 to 258 hours. Maybe an early indicator of the El Niño shear which we could see later as we head into September and October across the Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/0NxnYBWR/gfs-shear-atl-fh120-258.gif

Reality is starting to set in that we are in an El Nino it seems. Ben Noll alludes to what is most likely in my opinion, a stunted Atlantic hurricane season. Ben Noll also agrees in one of his comment responses that warm SST’s aren’t likely to win the battle against subsidence and shear the Atlantic will be facing through peak season. We aren’t seeing El Nino’s full blown effects yet, but they seem to be just on the horizon.

[Category5Kaiju]

As mentioned, the 12Z GEFS has strong Caribbean shear starting August 12th. That continues for about a week but then decreases to near normal Aug 20-23 while the strong shear zone shifts just to the north of the Greater Antilles.
Meanwhile as SFLcane showed, E US 500 mb ridging takes over on this run 8/19-8/23, which if it were to verify would potentially open the door to the E US for anything that might be in the W Atlantic then. Hopefully that would be shortlived if it happens.

Yes indeed looks like quite a bit of shear. Here is the 18Z GFS animation from 120 to 258 hours. Maybe an early indicator of the El Niño shear which we could see later as we head into September and October across the Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/0NxnYBWR/gfs-shear-atl-fh120-258.gif

Reality is starting to set in that we are in an El Nino it seems. Ben Noll alludes to what is most likely in my opinion, a stunted Atlantic hurricane season. Ben Noll also agrees in one of his comment responses that warm SST’s aren’t likely to win the battle against subsidence and shear the Atlantic will be facing through peak season. We aren’t seeing El Nino’s full blown effects yet, but they seem to be just on the horizon.

There are these though:
 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1688982935825956864




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1676998934479400960




Especially with the Atlantic quiet now, it's tempting to place blame on the El Nino, but there are several caveats to this season that I believe need to be considered as they may allow this season to not behave like a typical Nino season. I have yet to hear anything about major westerly shear in the basin too, as that would be characteristic of an El Nino; if you look at deep shear plots currently, shear is actually below average in many parts of the Atlantic.

For instance, here is the shear right now in the Atlantic:


That's not very El Nino-like.

[Ianswfl]

As mentioned, the 12Z GEFS has strong Caribbean shear starting August 12th. That continues for about a week but then decreases to near normal Aug 20-23 while the strong shear zone shifts just to the north of the Greater Antilles.
Meanwhile as SFLcane showed, E US 500 mb ridging takes over on this run 8/19-8/23, which if it were to verify would potentially open the door to the E US for anything that might be in the W Atlantic then. Hopefully that would be shortlived if it happens.

Yes indeed looks like quite a bit of shear. Here is the 18Z GFS animation from 120 to 258 hours. Maybe an early indicator of the El Niño shear which we could see later as we head into September and October across the Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/0NxnYBWR/gfs-shear-atl-fh120-258.gif

Reality is starting to set in that we are in an El Nino it seems. Ben Noll alludes to what is most likely in my opinion, a stunted Atlantic hurricane season. Ben Noll also agrees in one of his comment responses that warm SST’s aren’t likely to win the battle against subsidence and shear the Atlantic will be facing through peak season. We aren’t seeing El Nino’s full blown effects yet, but they seem to be just on the horizon.

If this were 2005 with the exact SST and heat content profiles in the ATL, imagine what that season would been like! Probably 4 more storms and another major thrown in too!

[Ianswfl]

As mentioned, the 12Z GEFS has strong Caribbean shear starting August 12th. That continues for about a week but then decreases to near normal Aug 20-23 while the strong shear zone shifts just to the north of the Greater Antilles.
Meanwhile as SFLcane showed, E US 500 mb ridging takes over on this run 8/19-8/23, which if it were to verify would potentially open the door to the E US for anything that might be in the W Atlantic then. Hopefully that would be shortlived if it happens.

Yes indeed looks like quite a bit of shear. Here is the 18Z GFS animation from 120 to 258 hours. Maybe an early indicator of the El Niño shear which we could see later as we head into September and October across the Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/0NxnYBWR/gfs-shear-atl-fh120-258.gif

Reality is starting to set in that we are in an El Nino it seems. Ben Noll alludes to what is most likely in my opinion, a stunted Atlantic hurricane season. Ben Noll also agrees in one of his comment responses that warm SST’s aren’t likely to win the battle against subsidence and shear the Atlantic will be facing through peak season. We aren’t seeing El Nino’s full blown effects yet, but they seem to be just on the horizon.

It could, because as Mark Suddith has pointed out it seems the peak of season has been pushed back like 2 weeks or so it seems now unlike in the 90s and earlier for example. I think Derek pointed this out too before the peak of season is moving later. So if it can hold off until later maybe it does.

[Jr0d]

I noticed CAPE values above 3500 for Miami and Key West from last night's weather balloon sounding. I dont think I have ever seen higher values from weather balloon data. ( 0Z 8August23 )

https://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/

[jlauderdal]

I noticed CAPE values above 3500 for Miami and Key West from last night's weather balloon sounding. I dont think I have ever seen higher values from weather balloon data. ( 0Z 8August23 )

https://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/

Need to get member GCAPE in the discussion.

[REDHurricane]

CFS with an interesting run this morning...

[tolakram]

As mentioned, the 12Z GEFS has strong Caribbean shear starting August 12th. That continues for about a week but then decreases to near normal Aug 20-23 while the strong shear zone shifts just to the north of the Greater Antilles.
Meanwhile as SFLcane showed, E US 500 mb ridging takes over on this run 8/19-8/23, which if it were to verify would potentially open the door to the E US for anything that might be in the W Atlantic then. Hopefully that would be shortlived if it happens.

Yes indeed looks like quite a bit of shear. Here is the 18Z GFS animation from 120 to 258 hours. Maybe an early indicator of the El Niño shear which we could see later as we head into September and October across the Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/0NxnYBWR/gfs-shear-atl-fh120-258.gif

Reality is starting to set in that we are in an El Nino it seems. Ben Noll alludes to what is most likely in my opinion, a stunted Atlantic hurricane season. Ben Noll also agrees in one of his comment responses that warm SST’s aren’t likely to win the battle against subsidence and shear the Atlantic will be facing through peak season. We aren’t seeing El Nino’s full blown effects yet, but they seem to be just on the horizon.

Looking at the long range GFS and believing what it says is a pretty risky bet. I don't see that anything has changed yet, except August angst.

[Woofde]

Yes indeed looks like quite a bit of shear. Here is the 18Z GFS animation from 120 to 258 hours. Maybe an early indicator of the El Niño shear which we could see later as we head into September and October across the Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/0NxnYBWR/gfs-shear-atl-fh120-258.gif

Reality is starting to set in that we are in an El Nino it seems. Ben Noll alludes to what is most likely in my opinion, a stunted Atlantic hurricane season. Ben Noll also agrees in one of his comment responses that warm SST’s aren’t likely to win the battle against subsidence and shear the Atlantic will be facing through peak season. We aren’t seeing El Nino’s full blown effects yet, but they seem to be just on the horizon.

Looking at the long range GFS and believing what it says is a pretty risky bet. I don't see that anything has changed yet, except August angst.

August angst for sure! I do love how consistent it is year after year. Another 10 days and everything starts to magically come to life. The climatology chart shows we are very much normal at the moment.

[Jr0d]

I have noticed that its like a switch turns on around August 15th- 20th. I tell people all the time the hurricane season doesn't really start to August 15th and many are confused are try to tell me it's June 1st like I didn't know. Maybe the NHC should declare August 15th thru October the "active hurricane season). 10 years ago I would hace thru October 15th...now I would call all of October active.

Like clock work the Ensembles are coming alive around August 20th...who would have guessed?

[Category5Kaiju]

As we wait for activity to perk up again in the Atlantic, I recently thought of a rather interesting, fun analogy to think about in the meantime. Hear me out here.

There was a video game I remember playing 8 years ago called Until Dawn. For those of you who aren't exactly familiar with this game, it's a horror and mystery game, and the plot involves 8 young adults who go on vacation in the Canadian wilderness and have to square off against evil flesh-eating demons. One unique aspect of that game I recall was how intricate it was, especially how minor decisions you make at certain points in the storyline for a certain character could lead to all other characters surviving, a certain number of characters surviving, a sole survivor, or a total party kill. How each character survives or dies and his or her exact story in the end hinges on the player's decisions.

So, how does this relate to Atlantic hurricane seasons? Every year, certain variables come in play that affect the season as a whole. We can perhaps predict broad-scale season and storm behavior, but intricacies are harder to pinpoint. For example, if the ocean and atmosphere "choose" to have a ridge/trough, warm ssts, ENSO warmth, and decent humidity at the right place and right time, then the next thing you know you have Hurricane Andrew about to hit Miami. Or perhaps it's a strong out-to-sea fish storm like Hurricane Sam. Or perhaps the ocean and atmosphere "decide" on a set of factors to be present or not present at a certain time, and you get a complete basin shutout like 2013. Or you get a season-long storm frenzy like 2005 or 2020. Or you get a 1961 or 2022 with a dead August but then destructive September hurricanes. My point here is that much like the setup of Until Dawn, minor "decisions" that the ocean and atmosphere make can have unforeseen, long-term impacts on the exact nature of the overall season.

There's a reason why individual storm behavior and strength can't be predicted far in advance and why no two seasons are the same. This is what makes tracking a given year in the Atlantic fun and why we should remain alert for what this year has in store (especially considering many bullish forecasts and how the Atlantic hasn't exactly behaved like a normal El Nino year so far).

[jlauderdal]

I have noticed that its like a switch turns on around August 15th- 20th. I tell people all the time the hurricane season doesn't really start to August 15th and many are confused are try to tell me it's June 1st like I didn't know. Maybe the NHC should declare August 15th thru October the "active hurricane season). 10 years ago I would hace thru October 15th...now I would call all of October active.

Like clock work the Ensembles are coming alive around August 20th...how would have guessed?

Climatology is a pretty good indicator, look at the distribution of hurricanes over time
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

October most active for Florida.

Meanwhile, its all about the heat for the time being.

[toad strangler]

I have noticed that its like a switch turns on around August 15th- 20th. I tell people all the time the hurricane season doesn't really start to August 15th and many are confused are try to tell me it's June 1st like I didn't know. Maybe the NHC should declare August 15th thru October the "active hurricane season). 10 years ago I would hace thru October 15th...now I would call all of October active.

Like clock work the Ensembles are coming alive around August 20th...how would have guessed?

Climatology is a pretty good indicator, look at the distribution of hurricanes over time
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

October most active for Florida.

Meanwhile, its all about the heat for the time being.

August historical snapshot. Courtesy of Michael Lowry weather

[Ntxw]

One good lesson learned this early season is that hot SSTs do not necessarily translate to big activity. This is actively being shown in the Atlantic and EPAC of reverse effect. EPAC is generating ACE with normal to below normal SSTA (Dora) while Atlantic is dealing with dry air and unfavorable winds, regardless of SST. It's the atmosphere that really is the determining player.

Suspect activity may pick up in the Atlantic once the hemispheric pattern cools and breaks down the stagnant trough-ridge pattern in the mid latitudes.

[Jr0d]

Not sure the exact statistics, but something like 90% of hurricanes for between mid August thru October. Its why I say the season does not really start until August 15th.

Just like almost every year before, the models come alive in this time frame...like clock work.

When I was younger this also coincided with school starting back up.

[SFLcane]

Things should get going in about 6-10 days...

Very interesting presentation from Phil k this morning.

[cycloneye]

Things should get going in about 6-10 days...

Very interesting chat with Phil k this morning.

https://i.postimg.cc/HnjsBkBt/jjj.png

Had things to do so did not hear it.. What were the highlights Adrian?

[SFLcane]

Things should get going in about 6-10 days...

Very interesting chat with Phil k this morning.

https://i.postimg.cc/HnjsBkBt/jjj.png

Had things to do so did not hear it.. What were the highlights Adrian?

Just uploaded some more pics.

[cheezyWXguy]

One good lesson learned this early season is that hot SSTs do not necessarily translate to big activity. This is actively being shown in the Atlantic and EPAC of reverse effect. EPAC is generating ACE with normal to below normal SSTA (Dora) while Atlantic is dealing with dry air and unfavorable winds, regardless of SST. It's the atmosphere that really is the determining player.

Suspect activity may pick up in the Atlantic once the hemispheric pattern cools and breaks down the stagnant trough-ridge pattern in the mid latitudes.

Isn’t the premise behind an active season despite an El Niño that warmer than normal ssts would lead to more rising air to counter the suppression caused by El Niño?