2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

The various ensembles are suggesting E US ridging 8/21-4 followed by a hint of a trough moving in 8/25-6. That period as is often the case may be a risky one for the CONUS.

Can you post?

I have nothing specific to post or link to, but based on a general assessment of the 3 main ensembles by looking at the mean H5 along with the individual members.

[HoustonFrog]

As some of the models are suggesting I’m Hoping the little disturbed area entering the SE Bahamas/Eastern Cuba can bring a little pocket of moisture to south Louisiana or S/E Texas for some much needed rain, I’d take some heavy clouds at this point.

Yeah I'd take virtually anything but 100+, high humidity, no clouds here in Houston. Brutal summer.

[wxman57]

As some of the models are suggesting I’m Hoping the little disturbed area entering the SE Bahamas/Eastern Cuba can bring a little pocket of moisture to south Louisiana or S/E Texas for some much needed rain, I’d take some heavy clouds at this point.

Yeah I'd take virtually anything but 100+, high humidity, no clouds here in Houston. Brutal summer.

The heat isn't so bad, but the lack of rain isn't helping my lawn. Here in SW Houston, I've measured about 2 inches of rain since early June. Zero rain at all since July 7th. At least we have a few clouds around, not like back in 1980. Not as dry as 2011, either, where I had measured only 5 inches of rain between early January and August 10th. I miss seeing towering cumulus and thunderstorm activity across the city. Tried watering my lawn for 3 hours yesterday morning but it's still crispy today.

[MississippiWx]

The area just east of the Bahamas has my interest. There have been some ensemble members toying around with it developing as it heads to the Gulf. It's the only game in town and has an interesting look, so might be worth watching the next few days.

[HoustonFrog]

As some of the models are suggesting I’m Hoping the little disturbed area entering the SE Bahamas/Eastern Cuba can bring a little pocket of moisture to south Louisiana or S/E Texas for some much needed rain, I’d take some heavy clouds at this point.

Yeah I'd take virtually anything but 100+, high humidity, no clouds here in Houston. Brutal summer.

The heat isn't so bad, but the lack of rain isn't helping my lawn. Here in SW Houston, I've measured about 2 inches of rain since early June. Zero rain at all since July 7th. At least we have a few clouds around, not like back in 1980. Not as dry as 2011, either, where I had measured only 5 inches of rain between early January and August 10th. I miss seeing towering cumulus and thunderstorm activity across the city. Tried watering my lawn for 3 hours yesterday morning but it's still crispy today.

I'm north side, and yeh zero rain since early July/late June. We've at least picked up some wind past few days.... clouds are mostly non existent up here it seems. Maybe a little more than two weeks ago.

My daily read of SCW is painful

[Spacecoast]

The area just east of the Bahamas has my interest. There have been some ensemble members toying around with it developing as it heads to the Gulf. It's the only game in town and has an interesting look, so might be worth watching the next few days.

0z EPS shows ~35% probability of depression in 3-4 days.

6z Euro also has vort heading into gulf in 2-3 days

[SouthFLTropics]

The recent GFS runs are throwing me for a loop. Typically, it is the GFS that is blowing up a monster storm and the rest of the models are quiet. Right now, it is opposite. The rest of the models are making some noise and the GFS is quiet. Does the same old adage stick? When the GFS is alone, don't trust it? I think I'd have to side with the odds and favor the remaining models, no matter what they say. It's almost like the GFS always wants to go against the rest of the class.

[SFLcane]

The various ensembles are suggesting E US ridging 8/21-4 followed by a hint of a trough moving in 8/25-6. That period as is often the case may be a risky one for the CONUS.

Can you post?

I have nothing specific to post or link to, but based on a general assessment of the 3 main ensembles by looking at the mean H5 along with the individual members.

If there something out there if it misses first chance to turn its coming west.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1689667808173682688

[Jr0d]

The area just east of the Bahamas has my interest. There have been some ensemble members toying around with it developing as it heads to the Gulf. It's the only game in town and has an interesting look, so might be worth watching the next few days.

I have been watching it also for a couple days. 2 nights ago it spit out a little vortex. While shower activity has waned it appears to have some spin.

The good thing is it will bring some much needed rain and relief for the heat here in the Keys.

It does seem like the models are deepening the convention a little before it approaches S. Florida. However the NHC is not interested in it so development is unlikely. Inam reminded of the low that FL developes.off central Florida about a month ago, that made landfall in N. Florida a brought some rain to Georgia and the Carolinas. It ended up getting a lemon and also had no model support. Had it had another day over water it very well may have been a storm.

This one has some slight model support, but the convective activity currently waxes and wanes instead of being sustained.

[BobHarlem]

12z Canadian, 12z Icon, and 12z Euro both developing the wave in the MDR around Aug 18-20th. Nothing on the GFS. Euro turns it north, the other 2 (CMC/Icon) do not.

[SFLcane]

Afternoon Euro quickly turns these weak waves northward never making it past 40-50w. Meh

[AutoPenalti]

Euro 12z says "What Ridge?"

[jlauderdal]

The recent GFS runs are throwing me for a loop. Typically, it is the GFS that is blowing up a monster storm and the rest of the models are quiet. Right now, it is opposite. The rest of the models are making some noise and the GFS is quiet. Does the same old adage stick? When the GFS is alone, don't trust it? I think I'd have to side with the odds and favor the remaining models, no matter what they say. It's almost like the GFS always wants to go against the rest of the class.

There is no consistency at this point, we need to put a couple of days together where the models have the same general idea, it could start tomorrow or in two weeks, unknown at this point but the season cancel posts we had a few days ago disappeared in a hurry.

[cycloneye]

12z Canadian, 12z Icon, and 12z Euro both developing the wave in the MDR around Aug 18-20th. Nothing on the GFS. Euro turns it north, the other 2 (CMC/Icon) do not.

Big mixbag from them with no consensus on anything. Let's see if the next runs, they align better.

[SFLcane]

Euro 12z says "What Ridge?"

I mean makes sense gonna be hard to get anything far west this year with +ENSO - lots of TUTT/westerlies. 1995

[Sambucol]

Euro 12z says "What Ridge?"

I mean makes sense gonna be hard to get anything far west this year with +ENSO - lots of TUTT/westerlies. 1995

I hope you’re right!! We need rain in Texas, but we don’t need anything like a hurricane.

[Nimbus]

The area just east of the Bahamas has my interest. There have been some ensemble members toying around with it developing as it heads to the Gulf. It's the only game in town and has an interesting look, so might be worth watching the next few days.

That is headed to the gulf?
I saw the warm core signature with the semicircular circulation probably still at the mid levels.
Could be invest worthy but very dry air to its southwest inhibiting development ATM.

[Jr0d]

The area just east of the Bahamas has my interest. There have been some ensemble members toying around with it developing as it heads to the Gulf. It's the only game in town and has an interesting look, so might be worth watching the next few days.

0z EPS shows ~35% probability of depression in 3-4 days.
https://i.ibb.co/GWR95g5/ef1.jpg
6z Euro also has vort heading into gulf in 2-3 days
https://i.ibb.co/7jVK2qk/ef2.jpg

There is weak low level spin around 23.2N 73W. It might be a good spot to for thunderstorms to fire later tonight during D-max. These nightly storms wane the next morning. Unless it can sustain convection (obviously) nothing significant will develop.

The CMC and Euro show a weak vort going over the Fl. Keys while the GFS splits it taking a vort north up the gulf stream toward CFL and another weak vort across the Keys and into the gulf. Perhaps if tonights (pending)convection persists all day tomorrow then we might get a lemon from the NHC tomorrow night, still doubtful of course.

Hopefully we get some rain and stormy weather this weekend to help cool the water and give us some relief (wide spread 90°+water all over the Keys and heat indexes hitting 119° currently), also the last two nights 7pm weather balloons showed CAPE values just over 3500, so plenty of fuel when the wave axis gets here.

At this point I would gladly take a depression or weak storm spinning up over us for the cooling effect however significant development of this feature is unlikely(but not impossible).

[SFLcane]

"Luis" please refrain from looking at the 12z EPS...