Texas Summer 2023

[HockeyTx82]

Our prayers have been answered!!!!!!!!!

Just recorded .01" of rain, first time in 23 days......

[rwfromkansas]

Glad to be wrong.

This is odd though. Radar shows it pouring and a big cell.

Really it’s VERY light. Can’t even hear it inside.

[utpmg]

The average daily high for Austin Mabry just ticked up to 106 (105.7) for this month. The *average*. Ugh.

[cstrunk]

Woke up in the middle of the night to a strange sound. Light/moderate rain was falling in an extremely isolated shower over my house. Ended up with 0.09". The next very slight chance of rain looks to be next Tuesday/Wednesday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Went down a wormhole last night, and on my journey I was trying to figure out why this summer was so bad for Texas. Coming into this summer, I typically consider El nino to be fairly wet, lack of heat waves, and nina to be dry, higher chance of heat waves. It's never that simple with the weather but i'm thinking it's more a combination of nino and the ATL which really determines whether a death ridge sets up over TX.

More boring details to come.

[Tejas89]

The native weather app on my phone has the cool down starting on Saturday the 19th. High of 96 for DFW which is about average.

Disclaimer that I don’t trust that app and this is not supported by the local Mets. Anyway, one can dream.

[bubba hotep]

Buckle up. I can smell the Fall thread starting to simmer.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1689763125371842560

[bubba hotep]

Went down a wormhole last night, and on my journey I was trying to figure out why this summer was so bad for Texas. Coming into this summer, I typically consider El nino to be fairly wet, lack of heat waves, and nina to be dry, higher chance of heat waves. It's never that simple with the weather but i'm thinking it's more a combination of nino and the ATL which really determines whether a death ridge sets up over TX.

More boring details to come.

It will be interesting to see what you get. When you step back, this summer's heat wave has been mostly centered over Texas. This wasn't a spiraling death ridge that broke the will of the Southern Plains.

[Edwards Limestone]

Buckle up. I can smell the Fall thread starting to simmer.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1689763125371842560?s=20

I like it!

CFS (I know) is showing much better chances for significant precip in September, better chances this month for DFW and Okla (as high finally retreats south and west) then central/south TX in Sept/Oct should get some much needed relief.

[bubba hotep]

Buckle up. I can smell the Fall thread starting to simmer.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1689763125371842560?s=20

I like it!

CFS (I know) is showing much better chances for significant precip in September, better chances this month for DFW and Okla (as high finally retreats south and west) then central/south TX in Sept/Oct should get some much needed relief.

Also, today is basically the climo heat peak for lots of Texas. Regardless of the models not believing it, the cool down is starting

[dpep4]

Another 109 degrees day again seeing scattered storms pop in a semi-line from Lake Bridgeport to San Angelo.

Our monsoon season is here!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Went down a wormhole last night, and on my journey I was trying to figure out why this summer was so bad for Texas. Coming into this summer, I typically consider El nino to be fairly wet, lack of heat waves, and nina to be dry, higher chance of heat waves. It's never that simple with the weather but i'm thinking it's more a combination of nino and the ATL which really determines whether a death ridge sets up over TX.

More boring details to come.

It will be interesting to see what you get. When you step back, this summer's heat wave has been mostly centered over Texas. This wasn't a spiraling death ridge that broke the will of the Southern Plains.

I havent had a chance to dive in yet, it will take an evening, lol, but I've noticed you cannot have a strong UL bermuda high and a strong UL Caribbean high at the same time. Currently, the Bermuda high is very very weak. This is apparent with the cold SST in the middle and high above normal temps along the shores of NA, EU, and Africa. The Caribbean high, the high in the gulf has been very very strong and has been leaning in on Texas consistently. It essentially hasnt left all summer. I think this is because the Bermuda high has been non existent. Normally, during a nino, these two highs would be melting into one another and at least giving Texas some sort of a break.

That's the gist of it. I plan on looking at El nino years with terrible droughts and heat waves. If I'm right, the Bermuda high would have been very weak those years.

Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk.

[Yukon Cornelius]

One again rain misses us to the S and E. At this point it’s a cruel joke. This is my grazing pastures..

[Ntxw]

We don't need to look far. The Pacific PDO, in particular cold tongue from California/Baja to Hawaii is the common denominator. for El Nino that is (especially if not coupled) you will get a HOT summer. It works most of the time.

[Ntxw]

July/August temperature composite.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, all but one of those years, the ATL looks similar to this summer

[Iceresistance]

We don't need to look far. The Pacific PDO, in particular cold tongue from California/Baja to Hawaii is the common denominator. for El Nino that is (especially if not coupled) you will get a HOT summer. It works most of the time.

https://i.imgur.com/X69xEdC.png

https://i.imgur.com/dRCp75z.png

https://i.imgur.com/m5UNMOp.png

https://i.imgur.com/UgcDZGu.png

This is unrelated, but look at the waters from Japan to the Central Pacific...

[Brent]

Buckle up. I can smell the Fall thread starting to simmer.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1689763125371842560?s=20

I like it!

CFS (I know) is showing much better chances for significant precip in September, better chances this month for DFW and Okla (as high finally retreats south and west) then central/south TX in Sept/Oct should get some much needed relief.

Also, today is basically the climo heat peak for lots of Texas. Regardless of the models not believing it, the cool down is starting

Today is the day of Tulsas all time high

All downhill from here

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, 92 at my abode at 10:45pm.

Time to break out the sweatshirts!

[Ntxw]

We don't need to look far. The Pacific PDO, in particular cold tongue from California/Baja to Hawaii is the common denominator. for El Nino that is (especially if not coupled) you will get a HOT summer. It works most of the time.

https://i.imgur.com/X69xEdC.png

https://i.imgur.com/dRCp75z.png

https://i.imgur.com/m5UNMOp.png

https://i.imgur.com/UgcDZGu.png

This is unrelated, but look at the waters from Japan to the Central Pacific...

Very related. Hot waters east of Japan is a component of -PDO.