SFLcane wrote:"Luis" please refrain from looking at the 12z EPS...![]()
https://i.postimg.cc/sXhdHD0P/EPS.png

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SFLcane wrote:"Luis" please refrain from looking at the 12z EPS...![]()
https://i.postimg.cc/sXhdHD0P/EPS.png
SFLcane wrote:"Luis" please refrain from looking at the 12z EPS...![]()
https://i.postimg.cc/sXhdHD0P/EPS.png
BobHarlem wrote:SFLcane wrote:"Luis" please refrain from looking at the 12z EPS...![]()
https://i.postimg.cc/sXhdHD0P/EPS.png
https://i.imgur.com/QgE6804.jpg
Nimbus wrote:MississippiWx wrote:The area just east of the Bahamas has my interest. There have been some ensemble members toying around with it developing as it heads to the Gulf. It's the only game in town and has an interesting look, so might be worth watching the next few days.
That is headed to the gulf?
I saw the warm core signature with the semicircular circulation probably still at the mid levels.
Could be invest worthy but very dry air to its southwest inhibiting development ATM.
MississippiWx wrote:The area just east of the Bahamas has my interest. There have been some ensemble members toying around with it developing as it heads to the Gulf. It's the only game in town and has an interesting look, so might be worth watching the next few days.
Spacecoast wrote:12z EPS: ~15% Hurricane probability
https://i.ibb.co/LpnWZc5/ef3.jpg
MississippiWx wrote:The area just east of the Bahamas has my interest. There have been some ensemble members toying around with it developing as it heads to the Gulf. It's the only game in town and has an interesting look, so might be worth watching the next few days.
LarryWx wrote:Spacecoast wrote:12z EPS: ~15% Hurricane probability
https://i.ibb.co/LpnWZc5/ef3.jpg
This is consistent with counting 8 hurricanes out of the 51 members from this, which is about as active as any EPS run in quite awhile. I can trace this all the way back to the 0Z Aug 4th run. Also, I noticed that what the 12Z Euro developed and then recurved early is not the EPS wave leading to 15% Hs. Rather it is a wave to come off over this weekend, which is ahead of the wave that produces the aforementioned recurving 12Z Euro low. Yesterday's 0Z Euro actually showed the active EPS wave better. It has it just E of the LAs at the end with the recurver well out in the mid MDR then.
So, I'm saying the EPS has been harping on the wave to come off this weekend as opposed to one to come off a couple of days later.
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Look at how broad and unconsolidated the 850 hPa vortex is. Not sure if a system like that would be able to strengthen.
Ivanhater wrote:Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Look at how broad and unconsolidated the 850 hPa vortex is. Not sure if a system like that would be able to strengthen.
I suspect the Euro is being conservative like usual. Interesting to see it starting to wake up nonetheless.
kevin wrote:This isn't something you see often, the euro ensemble is significantly more active than the gfs one. Or does the euro now have more members than the gfs?
Euro (+240)
https://i.imgur.com/7UDmURB.png
GFS (+240)
https://i.imgur.com/MSCqMDy.png
gatorcane wrote:The GFS continues to insist that the favorable conditions will be over the EPAC and not the Atlantic over the next 10 days. The upper-level flow it is predicting does not look favorable for significant development across the MDR. Strong westerly flow across the Gulf, Florida, the SW Atlantic, and the Caribbean. Day 10 below:
https://i.postimg.cc/mrqX9kXm/gfs-shear-atl-41.png
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