2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

Canadian vs GFS
Canadian
https://i.imgur.com/qRnhvKT.png
Western Atlantic wave is 989mb in that last frame.

So, the 12Z CMC is developing the bear/lemon watch wave about to come off/the one the EPS has been harping on to possibly threaten the CONUS. The 12Z Euro has this as a weak but possibly dangerous to Gulf Caribbean Cruiser.

12z Euro has a TS in Caribbean…

[Cpv17]

Canadian vs GFS
Canadian
https://i.imgur.com/qRnhvKT.png
Western Atlantic wave is 989mb in that last frame.

So, the 12Z CMC is developing the bear/lemon watch wave about to come off/the one the EPS has been harping on to possibly threaten the CONUS. The 12Z Euro has this as a weak but possibly dangerous to Gulf Caribbean Cruiser.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3JGzwnP4/ec-fast-ow850-watl-fh120-240.gif [/url]
12z Euro has a TS in Caribbean…

Question is would it get into the Gulf or just be a crossover into the EPAC? EPS should be more telling.

[SFLcane]

EC with with quite the ridge on day 9. Hmmm

[gatorcane]

The shear looks quite strong across the Caribbean and especially just north of and why the Euro keeps it weak. Given how active the EPAC is, it is not surprising to see the models predicting this shear:

[zzzh]

That's ULAC. The shear product on Tropical Tidbits doesn't have vortex removed, make the shear look very high.

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/W1xtYdTD/IMG-7429.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/GtSbBfpB/IMG-7430.jpg

This is about as active as it gets on the 12Z EPS with 4 different waves having a good # of members with TCG:

1) the AEW now near or just off Africa that has resulted in the strongest activity for many days now with some members threatening the CONUS 8/23+


2) some members have TCG in the GOM ahead of the aforementioned AEW 8/19-20 with 5+ TS and 1 H

3) & 4) each of the 2 AEWs following the #1 AEW, one coming off 8/16 largely recurving early and one coming off 8/20 with most still moving westward at 240

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… Happy hour has crazy track, but I think the takeaway is a strong TW is shown by all models moving @Caribbean in @7 days. If this TW didn’t get all tangled in the big islands it might have deepened on GFS.

[SFLcane]

[Ianswfl]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/J4P1Wj2B/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh186-384.gif [/url]
18z GFS… Happy hour has crazy track, but I think the takeaway is a strong TW is shown by all models moving @Caribbean in @7 days. If this TW didn’t get all tangled in the big islands it might have deepened on GFS.

18z ensembles are running and a lot more bullish on this close to Florida. One member bombs it to a strong cat4 over the keys and landfall around Marco Island 942mb, Irma path all over again except it deepens in the Bahamas and weakens a tad turning north. Looks compact too so would be stronger than Irma.

[Ianswfl]

https://i.postimg.cc/2yLM7dN6/IMG-7432.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRMXN7g2/IMG-7431.gif

That one member is Irma path all over again!

[AutoPenalti]

Let’s see what happens, but this coming week may be fun.

[Ianswfl]

Let’s see what happens, but this coming week may be fun.

The Irma member pumps me up! Especially if it can go 25 miles west! I got shafted in Punta Gorda during Irma lol.

[jlauderdal]

Let’s see what happens, but this coming week may be fun.

The Irma member pumps me up! Especially if it can go 25 miles west! I got shafted in Punta Gorda during Irma lol.

Were you around for charly?

[Ianswfl]

Let’s see what happens, but this coming week may be fun.

The Irma member pumps me up! Especially if it can go 25 miles west! I got shafted in Punta Gorda during Irma lol.

Were you around for charly?

No. Moved out of state two years before Charley then moved back in 2015. Ian Everything was shuttered on my house so I only went out in the calm of the eye. Next time I'll have leave one window open depending on wind direction so can watch it. I wanted to open my door during the back eyewall but it faces north and would have compromised the house. I had to put one of those door knob stops on my door to keep it from buckling in during the eyewall.

[hurricane2025]

Gfs pattern is October and November pattern really troughy don’t buy that one bit

[Ianswfl]

Gfs pattern is October and November pattern really troughy don’t by that one bit

But allows for a lot of close in development. Wave stays weak then explodes in the bahamas or Gulf on the ensembles over the hot waters.

[Jr0d]

Gfs pattern is October and November pattern really troughy don’t by that one bit

But allows for a lot of close in development. Wave stays weak then explodes in the bahamas or Gulf on the ensembles over the hot waters.

Not a good scenario. If this were to happen, hopefully there is enough model support when it a depression for the Emergency planners in the Keys to take appropriate measures. With the water being so hot a storm could possibly go from depression to major in as little as 48 hours,not enough time to evacuate the Keys

Hopefully we will not have a worst case scenario, a rapidly strengthening major hurricane that was under forecast, resulting in no time for an effective evacuation order.

How bad would being in bumper to bumper traffic stuck on the 7 mile bridge with deteriorating storm conditions?

[blp]

Looks Ukmet joins the party similar to the Euro with that first wave.

[Ianswfl]

Gfs pattern is October and November pattern really troughy don’t by that one bit

But allows for a lot of close in development. Wave stays weak then explodes in the bahamas or Gulf on the ensembles over the hot waters.

Not a good scenario. If this were to happen, hopefully there is enough model support when it a depression for the Emergency planners in the Keys to take appropriate measures. With the water being so hot a storm could possibly go from depression to major in as little as 48 hours,not enough time to evacuate the Keys

Hopefully we will not have a worst case scenario, a rapidly strengthening major hurricane that was under forecast, resulting in no time for an effective evacuation order.

How bad would being in bumper to bumper traffic stuck on the 7 mile bridge with deteriorating storm conditions?

Gfs ensembles suggest it does a close in bombing. Katrina almost did that. 12 more hours over water it would have made it to cat3.