2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[lsuhurricane]

18z EPS is very aggressive on its last frame. Looks like that first wave may have future after all.

[Blown Away]

Looks Ukmet joins the party similar to the Euro with that first wave.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6295bddb7d1795982306cb50e092541eb3c44aa355a9337031a311ab5980685e.png

Nearly all the models now move a strong TW near Caribbean. Biases are in place Euro more W, GFS more E, and CMC way out there. This system might be real and if these model runs miss GA’s to the N this TW may blow up after 70W.

[SFLcane]

That’s quite the signal surely

[IsabelaWeather]

Looks Ukmet joins the party similar to the Euro with that first wave.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6295bddb7d1795982306cb50e092541eb3c44aa355a9337031a311ab5980685e.png

I dont think I have access to the Ukmet, is that heading W or NW?

[Ianswfl]

18z EPS is very aggressive on its last frame. Looks like that first wave may have future after all.

https://i.ibb.co/xj00nqh/IMG-0922.png

If this takes time to form and sneaks into the carribean could this be a charley type set up with the trof? Thing would easily explode cat4 or above with 92 degree waters out in the gulf.

[Category5Kaiju]

That’s quite the signal surely

https://i.postimg.cc/wBG1GNGJ/IMG-7438.png

If that first wave is a legit TC signal and ends up north of the Caribbean.....oh snap

[lsuhurricane]

This GFS run already looks different. TS south of Cuba headed WNW. Looks like trouble if shear is low

[Ianswfl]

This GFS run already looks different. TS south of Cuba headed WNW. Looks like trouble if shear is low

Yea, catching up to the ensembles intensity wise. Not good track for swfl.

[Stratton23]

Oh boy thats a very ugly run by the 00z GFS, Deepening hurricane as it just kind of meanders around due to a strong ridge to its north

[Sambucol]

Oh boy thats a very ugly run by the 00z GFS, Deepening hurricane as it just kind of meanders around due to a strong ridge to its north

In that model, does is show it entering the GOM? Or is it a Florida storm at this point in the model?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol GFS has a cat 5 in the central gulf, 936 mb….

[Sambucol]

Sambucol GFS has a cat 5 in the central gulf, 936 mb….

Omg. How many days down the road is it showing that?

[Stratton23]

Beyond 10 days so just fantasy land, but that is one of the most disturbing tropical runs ive ever seen from the GFS, sub 930 MB cat 5 heading WNW

[Sambucol]

Beyond 10 days so just fantasy land, but that is one of the most disturbing tropical runs ive ever seen from the GFS, sub 930 MB cat 5 heading WNW

Agree. At WNW, from that point, would that make landfall in Texas?

[Stratton23]

The run stops their, but if it kept that general motion, then texas would be in play, thankfully i have better odds of getting struck by lightning than this run will verify lol

[Category5Kaiju]

If that last GFS verified, then Emily is almost certainly going to be nixed from the Atlantic naming list

[N2FSU]

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[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS has a H in the GOM 8/26-8 moving slowly W. That makes 6 GFS runs out of 53 (11%) since 7/31 with a H on the run:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: just off LA 8/26
-8/13 0Z: GOM 8/26-8

The last three on this list are all from the AEW now in the E Atlantic, the same one the EPS has been harping on since August 4th.

[Teban54]

0z Euro has a weak vort hitting Texas:

This appears to be ahead of the Caribbean wave (the one currently offshore Africa that GFS just blew up). The distinction is seen most clearly on 0z CMC, which shows all 4 potential systems:

0z GFS doesn't have it.

[Teban54]

That’s quite the signal surely

https://i.postimg.cc/wBG1GNGJ/IMG-7438.png

0z EPS is significantly weaker for the first wave within MDR:

Of course, this doesn't preclude development further west, and future runs can always bring it back.