2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

To let the peeps know that Dora has moved to the West Pacific basin, exploring it and now is Typhoon Dora.

The only other storm to do this was Hurricane John (94)...and the last closest attempt was Dora(99)(below) barely missed making it (and had a very similar track)

[Teban54]

To let the peeps know that Dora has moved to the West Pacific basin, exploring it and now is Typhoon Dora.

The only other storm to do this was Hurricane John (94)...and the last closest attempt was Dora(99)(below) barely missed making it (and had a very similar track)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7e/Dora_1999_track.png/1920px-Dora_1999_track.png

Didn't Genevieve 2014 also cross into WPAC as a Cat 3?

[cheezyWXguy]

To let the peeps know that Dora has moved to the West Pacific basin, exploring it and now is Typhoon Dora.

The only other storm to do this was Hurricane John (94)...and the last closest attempt was Dora(99)(below) barely missed making it (and had a very similar track)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7e/Dora_1999_track.png/1920px-Dora_1999_track.png

Didn't Genevieve 2014 also cross into WPAC as a Cat 3?

Dora and John’s feat probably should be clarified - they both went from the epac to the wpac while continuously maintaining hurricane status. Genevieve degenerated and regenerated at one point and was only a hurricane in the cpac and wpac

[gatorcane]

Latest long-range CFS out through Sept 13th shows quite a bit of activity with 3-4 storms and some weaker lows recurving into the Central Atlantic except one at the end-of-the month that gets close to the Lesser Antilles as it recurves. One impacts Bermuda and another one gets close. The Gulf and Caribbean are quiet:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Hurricaneman]

My take is anything that goes into the Caribbean will be sheared to bits due to El Niño but anything east or north of the Caribbean or in the GOM could be major trouble

[Spacecoast]

Latest long-range CFS out through Sept 13th shows quite a bit of activity with 3-4 storms and some weaker lows recurving into the Central Atlantic except one at the end-of-the month that gets close to the Lesser Antilles as it recurves. One impacts Bermuda and another one gets close. The Gulf and Caribbean are quiet:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

0z GEFS long range through Sept 14th is similar...

[Ianswfl]

Station 42013 which is 20 miles out in the Gulf from Venice, FL (not near the shore) just hit 93.2 degrees, remember TWENTY miles from shore, not shallow water at the beach. If we get a compact storm like hurricane Charley or the Labor Day storm and it's moving at a decent clip towards SWFL the thing will explode if it has favorable ventilation like Charley did. Could see a 190mph type compact monster easily or a Patrica type storm if it has a tight pressure gradient.

[cheezyWXguy]

Station 42013 which is 20 miles out in the Gulf from Venice, FL (not near the shore) just hit 93.2 degrees, remember TWENTY miles from shore, not shallow water at the beach. If we get a compact storm like hurricane Charley or the Labor Day storm and it's moving at a decent clip towards SWFL the thing will explode if it has favorable ventilation like Charley did. Could see a 190mph type compact monster easily or a Patrica type storm if it has a tight pressure gradient.

The gulf is boiling, so yeah that puts the ceiling pretty high (probably closer to Labor Day than Patricia), but really does need to be stressed how hard it is to reach that ceiling. Things would have to come together perfectly, and El Niño may eventually pose some barrier to making that happen

[Woofde]

Station 42013 which is 20 miles out in the Gulf from Venice, FL (not near the shore) just hit 93.2 degrees, remember TWENTY miles from shore, not shallow water at the beach. If we get a compact storm like hurricane Charley or the Labor Day storm and it's moving at a decent clip towards SWFL the thing will explode if it has favorable ventilation like Charley did. Could see a 190mph type compact monster easily or a Patrica type storm if it has a tight pressure gradient.

The gulf is boiling, so yeah that puts the ceiling pretty high (probably closer to Labor Day than Patricia), but really does need to be stressed how hard it is to reach that ceiling. Things would have to come together perfectly, and El Niño may eventually pose some barrier to making that happen

It can support below 880mb in the Northeast section in theory, in actuality like you said that is almost impossible though.

[Cpv17]

Station 42013 which is 20 miles out in the Gulf from Venice, FL (not near the shore) just hit 93.2 degrees, remember TWENTY miles from shore, not shallow water at the beach. If we get a compact storm like hurricane Charley or the Labor Day storm and it's moving at a decent clip towards SWFL the thing will explode if it has favorable ventilation like Charley did. Could see a 190mph type compact monster easily or a Patrica type storm if it has a tight pressure gradient.

The gulf is boiling, so yeah that puts the ceiling pretty high (probably closer to Labor Day than Patricia), but really does need to be stressed how hard it is to reach that ceiling. Things would have to come together perfectly, and El Niño may eventually pose some barrier to making that happen

It can support below 880mb in the Northeast section in theory, in actuality like you said that is almost impossible though. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230812/5cd49451cf7728633a733fc1cf1d5a0f.jpg

Wow, look at the EPAC! No wonder why storms are taking off over there. Is that normal in that area?

[dexterlabio]

^It's because we have collectively disregarded the existence of El Niño.

[canebeard]

Station 42013 which is 20 miles out in the Gulf from Venice, FL (not near the shore) just hit 93.2 degrees, remember TWENTY miles from shore, not shallow water at the beach. If we get a compact storm like hurricane Charley or the Labor Day storm and it's moving at a decent clip towards SWFL the thing will explode if it has favorable ventilation like Charley did. Could see a 190mph type compact monster easily or a Patrica type storm if it has a tight pressure gradient.

Wishful thinking? A lot of ifs.

[aspen]

Before the season started, I was thinking we’d see something similar to 2018. Now it seems like I was right. I’m getting serious 2018 vibes from this season in both the Atl and EPac so far: a high-quality EPac with a triple basin crosser (Hector ‘18 and Dora ‘23), unusually early and substantial MDR systems (Beryl ‘18 and Bret ‘23), decent levels of subtropics activity (most of early 2018; unnamed and Don ‘23), and a potentially lackluster August except for at the very end (2018 didn’t kick off until Florence formed like on the last day of August). I think many of the latest forecasts will bust high like they did last year, but we could see a rather late switch flip like 2018, and I expect the Caribbean to be as dead as that year with the El Niño and the EPac’s high activity.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z CFS long-range CFS through Sept 14th has just two storms, one last week of this month and a stronger one around Labor Day, both recurve well east of the Lesser Antilles. Nothing in the Gulf or Caribbean:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -met&m=cfs

[ElectricStorm]

I still think we'll see an average to slightly above above average season (which is pretty good for an El Nino year) but I just can't see how some of these hyperactive forecasts are going to be right. The EPAC should dominate for most of August, and the effects from El Nino might prevent any strong Caribbean and Gulf storms so to me this season is really going to rely on a strong MDR season in September.

While I do think this will be a pretty active MDR year, I really don't think it will be enough to reach the level of some of those predictions. I'll be surprised if we see more than 3 majors and 7-8 hurricanes overall.

But I definitely don't see this being as inactive as past El Nino years like 1997, 2014, 2015

[LarryWx]

The 00Z CFS long-range CFS through Sept 14th has just two storms, one last week of this month and a stronger one around Labor Day, both recurve well east of the Lesser Antilles. Nothing in the Gulf or Caribbean:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -met&m=cfs

The 0Z CFS develops only 1 of the 4 possibilities now being watched.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also something to keep in mind (kind of what aspen mentioned earlier); 2018 was also a very active year with global major storms. 2023 has already had 14 major-strength storms, with each basin featuring at least one so far. I think it's only a matter of time before the Atlantic joins in. Maybe the very warm global waters will allow all three NHEM basins to do pretty well, who knows

[psyclone]

It's pretty remarkable how dead the month of August tends to be until the last 3rd. Leaning heavily into the "bell ring" is often correct.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Before the season started, I was thinking we’d see something similar to 2018. Now it seems like I was right. I’m getting serious 2018 vibes from this season in both the Atl and EPac so far: a high-quality EPac with a triple basin crosser (Hector ‘18 and Dora ‘23), unusually early and substantial MDR systems (Beryl ‘18 and Bret ‘23), decent levels of subtropics activity (most of early 2018; unnamed and Don ‘23), and a potentially lackluster August except for at the very end (2018 didn’t kick off until Florence formed like on the last day of August). I think many of the latest forecasts will bust high like they did last year, but we could see a rather late switch flip like 2018, and I expect the Caribbean to be as dead as that year with the El Niño and the EPac’s high activity.

Yeah I think we're now enough into the season to see that hyperactive forecasts are likely too bullish given current and predicted conditions. The most active el nino Atlantic hurricane seasons of the satellite era (2004/1969) were already well on their way at this point. I think a 2018 level season is the much more realistic high end scenario than a hyperactive season. The record warm waters should allow for one long tracking powerhouse at the very least.

[Ianswfl]

It's pretty remarkable how dead the month of August tends to be until the last 3rd. Leaning heavily into the "bell ring" is often correct.

90s and early 2000s the real season started sooner not late aug and less dust. The years like Bertha, 2004 2005. Now a lot more dry air.