2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[BobHarlem]

The east Atlantic wave is much more organized on the 18z so far than 12z GFS, also that thing in the Gulf approaching Texas is an interesting signal also.

[Blown Away]

The dry air in the MDR will continue to be a problem. Maybe some of these leading waves can help with reducing the dry air for future waves.

12z Euro ensembles & 18z GFS giving us a different look.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS has something forming in the yucatan channel as well, definitely one of the more active runs in a while

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS has 4 areas of interest.

1. Early next week in the GOM the GFS has some vorticity that moves westward into Texas. Euro and CMC try to make it into a weak system as it approaches Texas.
2. Tropical wave about to come off of Africa. Gets down to 991 MB west of Cabo Verde but begins to weaken and moves westward.
3. 2nd MDR system that is weak probably won't happen because it has issues handling the monsoon trough.
4. Development in the WCAR in about 10 days.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… Big shift W in TW off Africa, makes big NW jump near Cape Verde then beeline W. Same time GOM cane into Texas. GFS keeps teasing us with the GOM storm.

[Spacecoast]

12z EPS: Shows two different areas for Hurricane development (~15% probability) on Day 11

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… GOM came back w/ Cat 2 into TX… Huge W shift for MDR TW, struggles w/ dry air across MDR and finds better conditions in SW Atlantic. Weird NW motion over Cape Verde, will that flatten out and TW won’t gain the latitude before riding under HP??? 18z GEFS should be interesting…

[hurricane2025]

What I notice with gfs right stout ridge on east coast all the way down to Florida and tons of moisture in gulf

[SFLcane]

[Ianswfl]

18z GFS ensembles are very active for Florida starting Aug 24th and later. Most of the hits look like from cat1 hurricanes though, not a lot of major members in it. Looks due to land interaction. Still, kinda eye popping if they can avoid land they could be stronger.

[jlauderdal]

18z GFS ensembles are very active for Florida starting Aug 24th and later. Most of the hits look like from cat1 hurricanes though, not a lot of major members in it. Looks due to land interaction. Still, kinda eye popping if they can avoid land they could be stronger.

Bear watch at most considerng the not so good conditions

[Ianswfl]

18z GFS ensembles are very active for Florida starting Aug 24th and later. Most of the hits look like from cat1 hurricanes though, not a lot of major members in it. Looks due to land interaction. Still, kinda eye popping if they can avoid land they could be stronger.

Bear watch at most considerng the not so good conditions

One nasty member is from a different system on Aug 29th. Cat4ish hits Key West then same place as Michael. The 24 to 26th system looks like it's the front wave but doesn't crank until around Cuba. But an uptick for sure. With the hot waters, you could have a Charley like intensity instead. Similar path.

[Cpv17]

Boy, that is a lot of action going on in the Gulf on the 18z GEFS.

[zzzh]

EPS has some sort of CAG in day 10-15 range.

[LarryWx]

GFS runs since 7/31 with hurricane: 3 of last 4

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: GOM just off LA 8/26
-8/13 0Z: GOM 8/26-8
-8/13 6Z: GOM 8/25-6 that hits MS 8/26-7.
-8/13 18Z: GOM 8/25 hits S TX 8/26

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1690898875140444160

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/PNlvKAi.png
EPS has some sort of CAG in day 10-15 range.

Wasn't it mentioned last season that there are zero CAG events on record in August?

[Blown Away]

18z Euro… Now shows a low developing in the Central Atlantic… GFS is slower and farther N, probably due to that early NNW jog near Cape Verde… IMO, both Euro/GFS somewhat agreeing on a TW moving across the Atlantic…

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/PNlvKAi.png
EPS has some sort of CAG in day 10-15 range.

Wasn't it mentioned last season that there are zero CAG events on record in August?

 https://twitter.com/weatherffolkes/status/1690769165924102144



I am not sure on this because Dr. Papin's paper says no August CAG has been observed.

The main reason why there are little CAG events in August is due to the strong trade. (Note there are 3 CAG events identified in first week of Sep)

However, with the strong westerlies EPS is showing, I wouldn't say the conditions for CAG in the last week of August is much different that the first week of September.

[Ianswfl]

18z euro ensembles out to 144 looks more active and a bit more south with the first wave as well.