EPAC: FERNANDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

There are some hot towers firing off around the northern half of the eyewall, near where the dry air entrainment was apparent earlier. Looks like Fernanda is trying to fix out that dry air.

[Yellow Evan]

Quickly recovering from dry air though eye could get obscured again once the CB rotates.

[aspen]

I think Fernanda might already be a Cat 2. Incredibly impressive for a storm that only formed yesterday. Assuming it doesn’t ingest anymore dry air, it has a good shot of becoming a Cat 4 tomorrow.

ADT, SATCON, and other satellite estimates are stuck at 65-70 kt for some reason. I have no idea why satellite estimates are so bad this year.

[Ntxw]

Well on the way to major.

[KirbyDude25]

I think Fernanda might already be a Cat 2. Incredibly impressive for a storm that only formed yesterday. Assuming it doesn’t ingest anymore dry air, it has a good shot of becoming a Cat 4 tomorrow.

ADT, SATCON, and other satellite estimates are stuck at 65-70 kt for some reason. I have no idea why satellite estimates are so bad this year.

It's probably all of the small systems we've had. Those tend to mess with objective estimates because their resolution isn't fine enough

[Yellow Evan]

Very rapid improvement with CDO quickly symmetrizing right as the eye warmed (now up to 8C).

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

Hello WMG how are you?

[USTropics]

I think Fernanda might already be a Cat 2. Incredibly impressive for a storm that only formed yesterday. Assuming it doesn’t ingest anymore dry air, it has a good shot of becoming a Cat 4 tomorrow.

ADT, SATCON, and other satellite estimates are stuck at 65-70 kt for some reason. I have no idea why satellite estimates are so bad this year.

It's probably all of the small systems we've had. Those tend to mess with objective estimates because their resolution isn't fine enough

This is due to how these methods capture the eye scene, particularly during rapid intensification scenarios. When the eye becomes too small/indistinct to be analyzed by the ADT/SATCON methodology, the scene types change to a CDO and embedded center scene. This leads to sometimes drastically low intensity estimates, which is exasperated even more when there is a lack of PMW data when a 'noneye period' scene is then applied.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 140019
TCSENP

A. 07E (FERNANDA)

B. 14/0000Z

C. 15.5N

D. 116.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.0. THIS INCLUDES AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 1.0. 6 HOUR AVERAGING YIELDS
A DT OF 5.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE CONSTRAINTS OF THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[ElectricStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 AUG 2023 Time : 000021 UTC
Lat : 15:25:12 N Lon : 116:43:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 985.6mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 5.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +9.3C Cloud Region Temp : -65.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Eye in the positives and raw Ts shooting up

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 07, 202308140000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1550N, 11670W, , 1, 77, 2, 979, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , 5, E, TAFB, JA, VI, 1, 4545 /////, , , GOES18, CSC, T, Eye Pattern yields a Data T-no. of 5.0. Final T-no.

[Kingarabian]

Looks solid so far. Let's see if it can become a MH.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 07, 2023081400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1168W, 85, 975, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15, 1010, 140, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FERNANDA, D,

Sounds about right.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP072023 08/14/23 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 85 96 102 107 107 103 95 82 72 63 55 50 47 48 49 50 50
V (KT) LAND 85 96 102 107 107 103 95 82 72 63 55 50 47 48 49 50 50
V (KT) LGEM 85 98 106 109 108 100 87 75 66 57 50 45 42 40 40 40 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 5 6 4 10 8 7 2 5 5 11 10 8 8 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 5 6 5 3 3 4 6 6 6 0 1 6 8 0
SHEAR DIR 21 40 218 184 177 150 108 112 128 107 95 66 102 125 139 147 206
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.4 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.0 23.6 24.1 24.7 25.1 25.3 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 154 153 148 132 127 122 118 104 99 105 111 116 117 123
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4
700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 54 53 51 43 39 36 32 28 24 22 21 21 22 22
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 20 20 19 19 16 15 12 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 22 20 23 28 31 36 49 27 33 28 23 7 15 22 20 18
200 MB DIV 11 26 45 23 32 -18 -5 -39 -19 -37 -38 -9 12 -7 8 5 1
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 0 -1 0 6 4 4 7 5 9 0 2 -1
LAND (KM) 1088 1118 1150 1199 1233 1297 1432 1611 1751 1966 2206 1914 1659 1377 1056 770 522
LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.4 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.8 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.5 118.1 118.9 119.7 121.3 123.5 126.0 128.2 130.9 133.9 136.7 139.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 11 12 14 14 12 12 14 14 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 18 20 23 26 23 17 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 12. 8. 5. 2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 11. 17. 22. 22. 18. 10. -3. -13. -22. -29. -35. -38. -37. -36. -35. -35.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.5 116.8

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.28 7.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 18.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 10.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 559.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.29 -5.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 4.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 9.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 10.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.92 4.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 84% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 84.0% 60.8% 60.6% 59.6% 48.2% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 67.6% 36.7% 51.0% 37.5% 18.8% 10.8% 0.7% 0.3%
Bayesian: 18.8% 11.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 56.8% 36.4% 38.0% 32.8% 22.4% 13.1% 0.2% 0.1%
DTOPS: 79.0% 63.0% 49.0% 38.0% 24.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/14/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]