2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[REDHurricane]

18z GFS has a tropical storm/min hurricane getting awfully close to California lol

GFS has a Major Hurricane (964mb) into Iceland...
How unusual is that???
https://i.ibb.co/Pg9yhBY/ea11.jpg

Definitely would be an extratropical system at that point (not a hurricane), but still pretty impressive nonetheless!

[IcyTundra]

0Z CMC sure is active it develops 3 systems with a 4th trying to develop.

[BobHarlem]

0Z CMC sure is active it develops 3 systems with a 4th trying to develop.

More like 5 of them



The wave off africa in that frame develops also.

Icon has 3 on this run (plus the gulf hint)



GFS not as enthusiastic in the 8 day range

[Stratton23]

And of course models are trending with a stronger ridge that forces the gulf system into mexico, Texas is literally cursed when it comes to rain

[N2FSU]

6z GFS fantasyland


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[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Still fantasy but it's moving up in time... I'm starting to think the Central Atlantic TW is involved with the GFS development... JMHO

[wxman57]

GFS has a Major Hurricane (964mb) into Iceland...
How unusual is that???
https://i.ibb.co/Pg9yhBY/ea11.jpg

That's not a tropical system. It's a large non-tropical storm system associate with an occluded front.

[Jr0d]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/bryMnMyJ/19444771-d5cd-4a8f-9066-8a8cb5b1e4a7.gif [/url]
06z GFS... Still fantasy but it's moving up in time... I'm starting to think the Central Atlantic TW is involved with the GFS development... JMHO

Definitely fantasy land. Still way to far out to even guess on potential track. Assuming something develops my guess earlier development favors a further west track, later development favors a further east track, Charlie comes to mind..another C storm comes to mind with a NNW track toward Mississippi but I will not mention that one. Hopefully we just get a large disorganized tropical storm that will pull some heat out of the gulf.

I also think this weekend we might get a surprise as the GFS, EURO and CMC all deepen a wave as it approaches 80W Saturday moving west. If it does close off a low north or south of Cuba we could see some development this weekend. All models eventually develop by next Wednesday as it approaches Texas/Mexico.

My amateur opinion, not a forecast.

[REDHurricane]

GFS fantasy storm aside, the 00z ensembles (which I typically find to be more useful than the deterministic run) are all in pretty close agreement about some sort of system approaching the Bahamas in 7 days (8/22) and moving west into Florida/Cuba/Gulf in about 10 days (8/25) -- not sure which particular wave this would be associated with:

EPS


EPS +240 hours


GEFS


GEFS +240 hours


GEPS


GEPS +240 hours


Could be a weak system, could be strong, but the models all appear to be picking up on the same signals of favorability in the same general area at about the same time as we approach the meat of hurricane season, plus a highly favorable wind shear environment throughout the Gulf and Caribbean starting around +312 hours ... looks like things could get interesting soon after the August 20 bell ringing and through at least the end of the month.

[Blown Away]

06z Icon... Starting to like the Central Atlantic TW

[Blown Away]

06z ECENS... Mostly TD-Cat1's...

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/59LbCPvS/06z-ECENS.jpg [/url]
06z ECENS... Mostly TD-Cat1's...

Thankfully ( for now ) it looks like it if tried to form it should recurve pretty quickly perhaps close to bermuda.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/59LbCPvS/06z-ECENS.jpg [/url]
06z ECENS... Mostly TD-Cat1's...

Thankfully ( for now ) it looks like it if tried to form it should recurve pretty quickly perhaps close to bermuda.

https://i.postimg.cc/59mYz5ZT/ggg.jpg

00z ICON

NHC 8am

NHC made a big W shift w/ the Central Atlantic cone at 8am and 00z Icon was still moving WNW at 180 hrs. Likely a stronger system E of the Caribbean moves OTS/Bermuda, but the trend today so far is farther W before turning...

[gatorcane]

All I am seeing with the reliable models (the Euro and GFS) is mostly unfavorable conditions over the Atlantic over the next 7-10 days due to dry air and shear. Also quite a bit of troughing over the Western Atlantic to turn storms north out to sea. The Nino is partly to blame because of all of the activity over the EPAC with no end in sight.

[LarryWx]

GFS 12 runs out of 63 since 7/31 with hurricane (7 of them over last 11 runs)(last 9 H within 8/25-30):

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: GOM hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: GOM just off LA 8/26
-8/13 0Z: GOM 8/26-8
-8/13 6Z: GOM 8/25-6 that hits MS 8/26-7.
-8/13 18Z: GOM 8/25 hits S TX 8/26
-8/14 0Z : off SC/NC 8/26-29
-8/14 6Z: off NC 8/28-30
-8/14 12Z: GOM 8/27 hits LA 8/28
-8/15 6Z: GOM 8/26 hits FL Panhandle 8/27

[Nimbus]

Back to GOM thought we might get more than a short wave to deflect.
How can the GFS be that wrong only a week away?

[lsuhurricane]

12z GEFS is still highly active with cyclogenesis in the Caribbean/Yucatan area during the 8-10 day range.



As far as I can tell, this development is not being moved back in time. As previously pointed out, a CAG like feature is being aided by a moisture laden wave from the east.

Compare this to the 0z GEPS for the same time range.....looks eerily similar.

[SouthFLTropics]

There's nothing scientific at all when it comes to what I'm about to say and I have no facts at all to back it up. However, in my experience, mother nature always makes up for herself one way or another. In other words, if I were in Texas right now, I'd be concerned about a strike from a TS or Hurricane sometime soon. As dry as it has been there, the rain will come at some point, and you may not be able to turn the faucet off when it does. Mother nature will erase the current drought in a flash.

[Landy]

Most agreement between GFS and ECMWF in a while.

[Cpv17]

There's nothing scientific at all when it comes to what I'm about to say and I have no facts at all to back it up. However, in my experience, mother nature always makes up for herself one way or another. In other words, if I were in Texas right now, I'd be concerned about a strike from a TS or Hurricane sometime soon. As dry as it has been there, the rain will come at some point, and you may not be able to turn the faucet off when it does. Mother nature will erase the current drought in a flash.

I wholeheartedly agree with you. I’ve said the same thing for years now.