2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Landy]

ECMWF better consolidation for the disturbance in the GOM being discussed as of late.

[IcyTundra]

Not sure that activity near the Yucatán on the GEFS and GFS is from the CAG. The genesis looks pretty similar to how Ida formed in 2021 with a tropical wave interacting with a low pressure area over South America.

[lsuhurricane]

Not sure that activity near the Yucatán on the GEFS and GFS is from the CAG. The genesis looks pretty similar to how Ida formed in 2021 with a tropical wave interacting with a low pressure area over South America.

Agreed. Latest Euro seems to have that look as well....

[mantis83]

anything that does form in the atlantic looks like fish storm city......good news!

[wxman57]

What I don't like seeing in both the GFS & Euro is for that wave to track farther south into NE Mexico early next week. That may leave SE Texas high and dry as far as rainfall.

[SFLcane]

Hmm...

[Nimbus]

ECMWF better consolidation for the disturbance in the GOM being discussed as of late.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1141079787155226774/ec-fast_uv850_vort_watl_fh48-192.gif

Notice they have that 1016 isobar retreating NE on ~Tuesday next week.
Not that it would matter if this is still just a weak wave without much moisture then.

[NDG]

Atlantic is getting ready to wake up, with 4 different systems over the next 10 days if the Euro ensembles are correct.

[Nimbus]

ECMWF better consolidation for the disturbance in the GOM being discussed as of late.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1141079787155226774/ec-fast_uv850_vort_watl_fh48-192.gif

Notice they have that 1016 isobar retreating NE on ~Tuesday next week.
Not that it would matter if this is still just a weak wave without much moisture then.
Looks like it misses a weakness.

[NDG]

What I don't like seeing in both the GFS & Euro is for that wave to track farther south into NE Mexico early next week. That may leave SE Texas high and dry as far as rainfall.

Can't shake off that La Nina like ridge across the south central US

[IcyTundra]

What I don't like seeing in both the GFS & Euro is for that wave to track farther south into NE Mexico early next week. That may leave SE Texas high and dry as far as rainfall.

I think we are going to miss out on the rainfall. To me in this pattern it’s more likely that the wave will not gain much latitude and go into South Texas or Northern Mexico.

[AnnularCane]

Hmm...

https://i.postimg.cc/05tJv6BS/ffmf.png

Looks hairy out there.

[HoustonFrog]

What I don't like seeing in both the GFS & Euro is for that wave to track farther south into NE Mexico early next week. That may leave SE Texas high and dry as far as rainfall.

I think we are going to miss out on the rainfall. To me in this pattern it’s more likely that the wave will not gain much latitude and go into South Texas or Northern Mexico.

Yeh we're screwed. Pure misery

[LarryWx]

Hmm...

https://i.postimg.cc/05tJv6BS/ffmf.png

For the readers who may not realize it, the 12Z EPS tracks through and near the Bahamas are from the central MDR lemon.

[Nederlander]

What I don't like seeing in both the GFS & Euro is for that wave to track farther south into NE Mexico early next week. That may leave SE Texas high and dry as far as rainfall.

Yeah, not good. CMC wants to bury it in MX as well. Still have time but that would be down right cruel

[Ivanhater]

The ridge over the northern gulf just isn't budging. Temps of 100 degrees continues for the foreseeable future

[MississippiWx]

The ridge over the northern gulf just isn't budging. Temps of 100 degrees continues for the foreseeable future

Yep. Miserable weather. I think we are closed for business when it comes to relief via tropical moisture because of that ridge.

[Stratton23]

Its way too soon to rule out texas, considering a landfall is still 8 days out and we dont even have a closed low yet, alot can change, texas and the middle -upper texas coastline are still very much in play, and besides most models show NE Mexico- S texas landfall, it wouldnt take much weaking of the ridge for that track to shift north again
Anything the models show past 5 days for a landfall can be taken with a massive grain of salt

[Blown Away]

18Z ICON... Keeps shifting W as a TS heading WNW towards the islands...

[Stratton23]

And 18z GFS shifts north some with a slightly more organized gulf system, last run was into brownsville, this run south padre island, slightly weaker ridge, it aint over till its over