Low Pressure Trough Over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 99L)

[Blown Away]

The 12Z EPS still is active with this AEW with ~half the members having TCG though there are fewer H vs the prior run. While having fewer H, it actually is more threatening further west because the tracks are on average further SW with many more going across the LAs and then a good portion of those going well into the Caribbean followed by either dissipation or moving over Hisp/Cuba followed by Bahamas. Some though move NW toward Virgin Islands/PR followed mostly by E of the Bahamas. A few still recurve before the Caribbean and then threaten Bermuda.

Bottom line for 12Z EPS vs 0Z: not as many H but centered closer to the US over Bahamas vs 0Z's mainly E of the Bahamas to Bermuda.

00Z ECENS


12z ECENS

Noticeable shift SW in the 12z ECENS moving through the NE Caribbean now...

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS strengthens to a hurricane. With strong support from the EPS and now the GFS jumping on board NHC will surely increase chances of development.

[Woofde]

18Z GFS strengthens to a hurricane.

Woah yeah it gets it to 998 mb in 72 hours. That's very quick. Unlike the July hurricanes depicted early this year, this timing is very much in agreement with climatology. Might be the time the basin wakes up

[Ianswfl]

18Z GFS strengthens to a hurricane. With strong support from the EPS and now the GFS jumping on board NHC will surely increase chances of development.

Still looks out to sea. We need rain in my part of swfl. Not saying a big hurricane but a cat2 up swfl coast or from the east would be nice

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS strengthens to a hurricane. With strong support from the EPS and now the GFS jumping on board NHC will surely increase chances of development.

Still looks out to sea. We need rain in my part of swfl. Not saying a big hurricane but a cat2 up swfl coast or from the east would be nice

Probably OTS but it is sign that the Atlantic is about to start getting busy.

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS strengthens to a hurricane. With strong support from the EPS and now the GFS jumping on board NHC will surely increase chances of development.

Still looks out to sea. We need rain in my part of swfl. Not saying a big hurricane but a cat2 up swfl coast or from the east would be nice

Probably OTS but it is sign that the Atlantic is about to start getting busy.

The GFS at 192 hours depicts the 1016 isobar pushing west closing off the weakness?

[Ianswfl]

Still looks out to sea. We need rain in my part of swfl. Not saying a big hurricane but a cat2 up swfl coast or from the east would be nice

Probably OTS but it is sign that the Atlantic is about to start getting busy.

The GFS at 192 hours depicts the 1016 isobar pushing west closing off the weakness?

220 hours the west car system trying to organize. Might cause a weakness?

[Nimbus]

Probably OTS but it is sign that the Atlantic is about to start getting busy.

The GFS at 192 hours depicts the 1016 isobar pushing west closing off the weakness?

220 hours the west car system trying to organize. Might cause a weakness?

Will probably find the weakness and recurve inside Bermuda but worth watching for New Jersey north.
And the Gulf low has crossed near Havana near 1000 mb

Gulf tropical storm raking Key west at 992 headed for south Florida

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1691567381858890165

[Nimbus]

The GFS at 192 hours depicts the 1016 isobar pushing west closing off the weakness?

220 hours the west car system trying to organize. Might cause a weakness?

Will probably find the weakness and recurve inside Bermuda but worth watching for New Jersey north.
And the Gulf low has crossed near Havana near 1000 mb

Gulf tropical storm raking Key west at 992 headed for south Florida

And New Jersey is getting flooded.

[Ianswfl]

The GFS at 192 hours depicts the 1016 isobar pushing west closing off the weakness?

220 hours the west car system trying to organize. Might cause a weakness?

Will probably find the weakness and recurve inside Bermuda but worth watching for New Jersey north.
And the Gulf low has crossed near Havana near 1000 mb

Gulf tropical storm raking Key west at 992 headed for south Florida

More like Irene 1999 path it does. Drops down to 982mb at landfall due to that hot waters around there! Can we shift that track 50 miles west so it would be similar to a 2004 storm with a similar pattern lol?

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… GFS showing its develop quick and east bias, while Euro/Icon/Ukmet are much farther SW near NE Caribbean/Bahamas. This might be real…

[IcyTundra]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sxZxWtVM/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh30-318.gif [/url]
18z GFS… GFS showing its develop quick and east bias, while Euro/Icon/Ukmet are much farther SW near NE Caribbean/Bahamas. This might be real…

I doubt it develops as quickly as the GFS is showing.

[abajan]

Excerpt from the 8 PM Tropical Weather Update:

A tropical wave, interacting with a larger trough of low pressure,
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some gradual
development of this system during the next several days as it moves
to the west-northwestward or northwestward between 10-15 mph across
the tropical Atlantic through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Blown Away]

18z Euro… Big shift W from 12z…

[lsuhurricane]

Yeah, thats a big whoa with respect to future implications.

Different look:

[LarryWx]

Yeah, thats a big whoa with respect to future implications.

Different look:

https://i.ibb.co/7tnRK68/9-km-ECMWF-Global-00z-12z-3-Hourly-Caribbean-850-h-Pa-Rel-Vorticity.gif

This 18Z hour 90 Euro position is ~225 miles SE of the 12Z UKMET hour 96 location and appears to be headed toward the Leewards and then perhaps PR.The 0Z runs will be quite interesting to say the least.

[SFLcane]

Yeah, thats a big whoa with respect to future implications.

Different look:

https://i.ibb.co/7tnRK68/9-km-ECMWF-Global-00z-12z-3-Hourly-Caribbean-850-h-Pa-Rel-Vorticity.gif

Whoa indeed!

[LarryWx]

Yeah, thats a big whoa with respect to future implications.

Different look:

https://i.ibb.co/7tnRK68/9-km-ECMWF-Global-00z-12z-3-Hourly-Caribbean-850-h-Pa-Rel-Vorticity.gif

Do you have the 18Z Euro hour 90 surface? How strong is the LLC then?

[lsuhurricane]

Appears to be 1004mb at the 84-90 hr frames.

Very compact