Tropical Wave in the SE GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[hurricane2025]

Icon tropical storm south of galveston

[Nimbus]

12Z GFS is still showing a 1007 mb low gathering near Jamaica at 180 hours tracking over Cuba.
At hour 225 its west of the keys intensifying from 1003 mb.

[wxman22]

ICON showing a weak tropical storm.

[LarryWx]

The UKMET still has no GOM TC.

[IcyTundra]

12Z GFS is still showing a 1007 mb low gathering near Jamaica at 180 hours tracking over Cuba.
At hour 225 its west of the keys intensifying from 1003 mb.

Pretty sure that is a different system:

[Nimbus]

12Z GFS is still showing a 1007 mb low gathering near Jamaica at 180 hours tracking over Cuba.
At hour 225 its west of the keys intensifying from 1003 mb.

Pretty sure that is a different system:

And at 270 hours WXman57 is getting his lawn watered by a gentle 997 mb TS after it traversed the entire bathtub warm Gulf from Cuba.

[Ianswfl]

12Z GFS is still showing a 1007 mb low gathering near Jamaica at 180 hours tracking over Cuba.
At hour 225 its west of the keys intensifying from 1003 mb.

What about the Canadian model showing a strengthening cat1 next Saturday heading for SWFL?

[Steve]

12Z GFS is still showing a 1007 mb low gathering near Jamaica at 180 hours tracking over Cuba.
At hour 225 its west of the keys intensifying from 1003 mb.

What about the Canadian model showing a strengthening cat1 next Saturday heading for SWFL?

Too far out to know. Icon and GFS Texas. CMC south Florida. What appears to happen is that a large gyre forms and the circulation that moves up into Florida breaks off of that to come up. It’s plausible but still too far away even though there is becoming a consensus that we could have a named storm or unnamed circulation in the Gulf in 5-7 days.

[Nederlander]

Icon tropical storm south of galveston

This would be ideal for me at least (north of Houston)

[jaguars_22]

I think it’s getting confusing…. This first system is going to happen sooner as in Monday or Tuesday…is showing Texas or n Mexico… this next system that was showing Florida later next week is separate!

[Tireman4]

Still way too early for me. I with the HGX folks,

"There are significant inconsistencies in the global models for early
next week, in particular with the development of a broad area of
low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico next week, as
mentioned by the National Hurricane Center. Confidence at this
time is low. Therefore, will continue with a model blend with
modest PoPs for that period and adjust as needed. Please continue
to monitor the forecasts during the next few days."

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

I know there is another system that models develop but is days ahead from the one this thread is about and that is why I added the word "early" to the title.

[Cpv17]

Icon tropical storm south of galveston

This would be ideal for me at least (north of Houston)

It looks really good for me here in Wharton County lol I get clobbered on the ICON.

[jaguars_22]

My guess is whatever forms it will head inland between Brownsville and port o connor. I hope the models are correct showing something small and doesn’t begin getting stronger like that H name

[Wampadawg]

Doesn’t the ICON usually so a better job on these Homegrown storms

[cycloneye]

12z Euro.

[Stratton23]

Euro now has a TD approaching se texas

[cycloneye]

Look what happens after it reaches SE Texas.

[wxman22]

Doesn’t the ICON usually so a better job on these Homegrown storms

Sometimes it does a better job with homebrew storms, but not always of course.