2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[SFLcane]

Tweets aren’t working…
 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1691613114909823343




https://x.com/derekortt/status/16916131 ... jITqDzKFmQ

[zzzh]

Large scale rising branch over the Atlantic/Africa has been there since late July.

[Ianswfl]

Tweets aren’t working…
https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1691613114909823343?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

https://x.com/derekortt/status/16916131 ... jITqDzKFmQ

This also means SST will cool a bit. But remember need moist air and favorable Upper level winds. I expect the Gulf SST have peaked now. A hurricane would rather have 85 degree waters, moist air and low shear versus 91 degrees and bone dry air.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691886899277758822

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691886899277758822?s=20

Tutt's everywhere.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691886899277758822?s=20

Tutt's everywhere.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1691893132458127758

[tolakram]

Tweets aren’t working…
https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1691613114909823343?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

https://x.com/derekortt/status/16916131 ... jITqDzKFmQ

Use twitter, not x, and it will work.

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1691613114909823343




Added a tag, Xeet, if one must use X.com, and no, I have no idea what to call it.

Code: Select all

[xeet]https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1691613114909823343?s=20[/xeet]

[WiscoWx02]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691886899277758822?s=20

El Nino has arrived!!! Seems to me the atmosphere has finally coupled and the door will likely be closed for an active hurricane season especially if the shear increases out there over the next few days. Dry air will likely decrease as it always does but the shear...I don't really see that going anywhere personally, especially with the eastern Pacific being as active as it is.

[IcyTundra]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691886899277758822?s=20

El Nino has arrived!!! Seems to me the atmosphere has finally coupled and the door will likely be closed for an active hurricane season especially if the shear increases out there over the next few days. Dry air will likely decrease as it always does but the shear...I don't really see that going anywhere personally, especially with the eastern Pacific being as active as it is.

I get that we are in a El Niño but the predictions by NOAA and CSU make me think that the season won’t be completely dead. The predictions could bust but they have to be seeing something that we aren’t.

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691886899277758822?s=20

El Nino has arrived!!! Seems to me the atmosphere has finally coupled and the door will likely be closed for an active hurricane season especially if the shear increases out there over the next few days. Dry air will likely decrease as it always does but the shear...I don't really see that going anywhere personally, especially with the eastern Pacific being as active as it is.

Let’s talk in a month from now.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691886899277758822?s=20

El Nino has arrived!!! Seems to me the atmosphere has finally coupled and the door will likely be closed for an active hurricane season especially if the shear increases out there over the next few days. Dry air will likely decrease as it always does but the shear...I don't really see that going anywhere personally, especially with the eastern Pacific being as active as it is.

I think it's a bit much to cancel the season over one Hazelton tweet (especially since he's the most bearish pro met out there).

But regardless, the TUTTs will likely prevent the MDR AOIs from becoming strong, long-tracked hurricanes. I wouldn't be shocked to see the MDR/Caribbean become a bit more favorable in late August/early September when the EPAC has a brief suppressed period and the upward motion is over the IO/Africa.

[MarioProtVI]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691886899277758822?s=20

I don’t tend to trust the euro beyond 150 hours…models always make the basin more unfavorable then it actually would be (several others here iirc have mentioned this). Also as CyclonicFury said, this is a Hazelton post and he has a habit lately of nitpicking everything to downcast

[REDHurricane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691886899277758822?s=20

I don’t tend to trust the euro beyond 150 hours…models always make the basin more unfavorable then it actually would be (several others here iirc have mentioned this). Also as CyclonicFury said, this is a Hazelton post and he has a habit lately of nitpicking everything to downcast :lol:

It's always confused me how a meteorologist who specializes in researching hurricanes could hate hurricanes so much :)

[jconsor]

Beware of recency bias! The downcasting of the tropical Atlantic happens nearly every year when there is a Jul/early Aug lull in activity (even 2017 and 2020; go back and look at the Storm2k archives for those years and you'd be amazed!)

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1692130644065706026




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1692134388517990636




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1692135551887884426

[Steve]

Thanks Jacob. Always on point.

[Jr0d]

I think it's a bit much to cancel the season over one Hazelton tweet (especially since he's the most bearish pro met out there).

.

More bearish than wxman57?

We are almost to the unofficial start of hurricane season and looks like there will be at least one storm to ring that bell on Sunday.

As someone said, check back in a month. I dont think NOAA, CSU and others forecast will be a bust.

Just look how active the ensembles are currently.

[Spacecoast]

Sahel Precipitation looks like a mixed bag.
Not sure how much of an indicator this is, has been, (or will be)....
CSU Forecasting:
"Changes in convective precipitation over the Sahel region has been shown to impact zonal winds in the upper-troposphere, which in turn modulate vertical wind shear over the Main Development Region and influence the conditions of cyclogenesis over the tropical Atlantic. Years with higher Sahel rainfall tend to be associated with more active hurricane seasons."

[Teban54]

August 17:

It's very unlikely to see all 4 develop, and most probably won't get very strong. But still, looks like the switch had been flipped.

[AnnularCane]

August 17:
https://i.postimg.cc/wTvW4b9z/two-atl-7d0.png
It's very unlikely to see all 4 develop, and most probably won't get very strong. But still, looks like the switch had been flipped.

Who's in the mood for some tropical fruit punch?

I didn't even know there was anything else out there. Unless that's the one the models are actually latching on to.