Tropical Wave in the SE GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[Jr0d]

Convection has increased associated with the wave that will make it into the gulf this weekend, currently north of Hispaniola.

We ended up getting a severe storm in Key West last Saturday from a tropical disturbance. This one already look healthier than the one from last weak. It will soon reach the hot waters in the Bahamas and Florida Straits with improving conditions for development.

I would not be surprised if a low closes off near Florida Keys this weekend. It is interesting the GFS does not do much with this, it basically evaporates when it gets to Texas while the Euro and CMC show significant development.

[Wampadawg]

oh these home grown storms are so frustrating, models
Can’t agree? So many factors,NHC beginning to increase odds,I guess all we can do here on the Gulf Coast is be prepared and do our rain rituals and stay tuned

[cycloneye]

This is the northern part of the tropical wave that will enter the GOM by the weekend.

[Ianswfl]

Convection has increased associated with the wave that will make it into the gulf this weekend, currently north of Hispaniola.

We ended up getting a severe storm in Key West last Saturday from a tropical disturbance. This one already look healthier than the one from last weak. It will soon reach the hot waters in the Bahamas and Florida Straits with improving conditions for development.

I would not be surprised if a low closes off near Florida Keys this weekend. It is interesting the GFS does not do much with this, it basically evaporates when it gets to Texas while the Euro and CMC show significant development.

You think it could be a ts before Florida?

[galvestontx]

I’m soooooo glad I booked a vacation for the 21-25 in Port Aransas. $1400 for the house and $700 for the golf cart 4 day rental. We will just have to make the best of it. Hopefully they don’t shut down the ferries Monday before we can get on the island. Yay

[jasons2k]

I’m soooooo glad I booked a vacation for the 21-25 in Port Aransas. $1400 for the house and $700 for the golf cart 4 day rental. We will just have to make the best of it. Hopefully they don’t shut down the ferries Monday before we can get on the island. Yay

You can go down to I-37 and cut across Corpus to South Padre and come back north to Port A. to avoid the ferry. Sometimes we prefer that route when the ferry wait is long.

Next week could get interesting for sure.

[LarryWx]

Still no GOM TC on UKMET

[jabman98]

Here is an update from local met Jeff Lindner with details about the gulf system:
Conditions appear to become most favorable just prior to landfall along the Texas coast and development if any may be very near the coast just prior to landfall, in part due to the board nature of the wave interacting with the concave curvature of the Texas coast.

That part always makes me nervous. The development before landing. People think it's going to be a rain event and it turns out it's a wind event instead or in addition. I know, everyone should be prepared, etc. Many often aren't and get caught off guard.

[Wampadawg]

Here is an update from local met Jeff Lindner with details about the gulf system:
Conditions appear to become most favorable just prior to landfall along the Texas coast and development if any may be very near the coast just prior to landfall, in part due to the board nature of the wave interacting with the concave curvature of the Texas coast.

That part always makes me nervous. The development before landing. People think it's going to be a rain event and it turns out it's a wind event instead or in addition. I know, everyone should be prepared, etc. Many often aren't and get caught off guard.

Agreed wonder what Wxman thinks about it all?

[Stratton23]

Interesting to see the GFS CMC both develop the southern part of the wave while the euro develops the north part, most of the convection looks to be favoring the the north end right now, I think the GFS and CMC will cave in to the euro solution, im going with the euro guidance and seeing a middle texas landfall

[jaguars_22]

The models mostly show an open wave making landfall. CMC develops the southern end of the trough because I see a swirl next to the convection currently that looks like it’s pushing the clouds south… maybe this is why the cmc sees that… models don’t show anything to worry about

[Cpv17]

The models mostly show an open wave making landfall. CMC develops the southern end of the trough because I see a swirl next to the convection currently that looks like it’s pushing the clouds south… maybe this is why the cmc sees that… models don’t show anything to worry about

Nope. I’m not really expecting much to come from this at the moment.

[wxman57]

What do I think? I'm pulling for the ECMWF's track into the upper TX coast vs. lower coast. I'm not concerned about any wind issues across Texas. If there are some squalls with TS wind, they'll remain offshore. All it would take for the NHC to call it a TS is a barely discernible LLC and a gust to 35 kts in a squall. In reality, this system could only be beneficial for the VERY dry Texas. We could use a slow moving disturbance here. The disturbance will be battling dry air (all around it now) and increasing wind shear as it moves across the Gulf. I don't expect any rapid development in the Gulf. The low may not close off until it's moving into the Texas coast, if then.

[Wampadawg]

The models mostly show an open wave making landfall. CMC develops the southern end of the trough because I see a swirl next to the convection currently that looks like it’s pushing the clouds south… maybe this is why the cmc sees that… models don’t show anything to worry about

Nope. I’m not really expecting much to come from this at the moment.

Well we know the models struggle with these Homegrown,the next few days will be the clarity one way or another.Be interesting what the next Euro shows

[Stratton23]

We need this to become at least a depression maybe a tropical storm, an open wave wont do jack for the texas coast

[wxman57]

We need this to become at least a depression maybe a tropical storm, an open wave wont do jack for the texas coast

No difference between a wave, a TD, or weak TS in terms of rainfall. Open waves can produce a lot of rain. This one, unfortunately, may move too quickly and not drop nearly enough rain.

[Jr0d]

You think it could be a ts before Florida?

No. Not impossible but unlikely.

Maybe low closes off over the Keys, but at best it would be developing depression. It seems like it will slow down sometime tomorrow also. It is also possible convection will start firing south of Cuba and that might be where the low closes off.

I expect we will be getting a 48 hour lemon by tomorrow.

[Wampadawg]

New Euro saying to other models I am in and I will raise ya”all

[jaguars_22]

The euro looks good now but I don’t like how it’s shifting south like the cmc… the euro ensembles moved down the coast since last run. I am also seeing a few stronger members getting as low as 971mb…

[Wampadawg]

The euro looks good now but I don’t like how it’s shifting south like the cmc… the euro ensembles moved down the coast since last run. I am also seeing a few stronger members getting as low as 971mb…

All we have is hope Brother anything would be a break from this non stop heat and drought!