2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[lsuhurricane]

12z Euro now in alignment with both GFS and Canadian on a CAG brew system entering the Gulf of Mexico.

[IcyTundra]

GFS and Euro are both forecasting a TUTT in the gulf towards the end of next week when the potential WCAR system could be moving into the gulf. Of course that could change but it would make sense considering we are in a El Nino right now.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GEFS lights up the gulf.

[Ianswfl]

18Z GEFS lights up the gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/k5WLBKN/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh138-342.gif

Too far west! Bring it to swfl please!

[gatorcane]

18Z GEFS lights up the gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/k5WLBKN/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh138-342.gif

Always over 200+ hours with the GFS and GEFS.

[Cpv17]

18Z GEFS lights up the gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/k5WLBKN/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh138-342.gif

Too far west! Bring it to swfl please!

Florida will have their chance in late September through October but of course FL is one of those states that could get hit at any point during the season with the exception of maybe November.

[Cpv17]

18Z GEFS lights up the gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/k5WLBKN/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh138-342.gif

If this can get under 200 hours then I’ll be more interested but not gonna lie, that’s an impressive signal.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET for the third time in a row has a TD form in the far E MDR at the end of its run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 14.2N 17.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2023 168 14.2N 17.6W 1004 34

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS just through day 10 is very busy with many active members for 98L, 99L, the Gulf low, and two followup MDR AEWs. Also, late in the run there are ~half the members moving up from the Bay of Campeche with some members crossing over from the Pacific late in the run. So, that's a total of six different features of interest just through day 10. Thus if only half of these end up as a TC, that would be enough to yield three new TCs by 0Z on 8/27 (very busy vs climo averages for just a ten day period). That's like night and day vs what the models were showing for the same part of August last year. Two of these six (the two in the Gulf) would be direct threats to the CONUS.
I predicted 3 NS for August. I feel pretty good about that prediction.

[BobHarlem]

The Models are all over the place lately and inconsistent as hell. Example: Canadian

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET for the third time in a row has a TD form in the far E MDR at the end of its run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 14.2N 17.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2023 168 14.2N 17.6W 1004 34

For the 4th run in a row, the UKMET has TCG late in the run in the far E MDR:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 12.7N 17.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2023 156 13.7N 18.3W 1004 32
1200UTC 24.08.2023 168 15.0N 21.3W 1005 30

[BobHarlem]

12z euro for this coming Monday it joins the 12z Canadian (and UKMET) doing this (Although after this is goes east of the Bahamas)
Takes it over USVI/PR after this. This is not 99l or 98l either.

TUTT will probably keeping it from going too crazy, but it follows the "switch on" pattern that sometimes happens around the start of peak season where the models sometimes struggle.

[cycloneye]

Between eastern PR and U.S VI.

[StormPyrate]

Where are the spaghettio models these days

[BobHarlem]

Ok 12z euro... (Looper near the carib Also east pacific->atlantic crossover to the BoC)



final frame

[cycloneye]

Wow. Crossover from EPAC.

[IcyTundra]

Where are the spaghettio models these days

Weathernerds.org is where a lot of people get them. Just click on the global models section at the top and click on GEFS or ECENS.

[Cpv17]

Wow. Crossover from EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/eOeZ4rp.png

NE trough. That would probably get sucked up towards MS/AL or FL.

[Ivanhater]

At 240 hrs. The CMC and Euro are showing a system in the Gulf from a CAG/Crossover like the gfs was showing for days.

[PTrackerLA]

At 240 hrs. The CMC and Euro are showing a system in the Gulf from a CAG/Crossover like the gfs was showing for days.

A few 00z Euro ensembles had this crossover as well. At day 10 the system in front of 99L (future 91L??) looks like it could pose a threat to the EC. Pretty wild run here.