2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[BobHarlem]

Too many inividual threads, so this goes here:

[Teban54]

Too many inividual threads, so this goes here:

https://i.imgur.com/zyepTk5.gif

Interesting to see the ensemble members splitting into 3 camps:

• 99L developing
• 10/20 AOI to the west developing, and sharply recurving just before reaching the Lesser Antilles
• 10/20 AOI to the west developing, continuing further west, and recurving to the south of Haiti

[Blown Away]

00z Euro… Does loop in SE Bahamas and then NW while strengthening…

[USTropics]

Update to the potential AOIs in the Atlantic and a 5-day forecast blend of the 00z GFS/ECWMF model runs:


GOMEX area of interest (AOI) - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123537
CARIB AOI ESE of LA- https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123553
Invest 99L - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9&t=123544
Invest 98L - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9&t=123543

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/BvJSJSr4/ec-fast-ow850-watl-fh48-240.gif [/url]

00z Euro… Does loop in SE Bahamas and then NW while strengthening…

It was thinking about coming to south florida then decided nope, we dont do that....a week ago we were sitting on cancel season posts...now los angeles is in the cone of confusion and the Atlantic basin is producing activity

[LarryWx]

Update to the potential AOIs in the Atlantic and a 5-day forecast blend of the 00z GFS/ECWMF model runs:
https://i.imgur.com/GoxXmFH.png

GOMEX area of interest (AOI) - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123537
CARIB AOI ESE of LA- https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123553
Invest 99L - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9&t=123544
Invest 98L - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9&t=123543

On the same day last year there was NO MDR activity noted in the NHC TWOs. Like night and day.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo_ ... 2208181137

[ScottNAtlanta]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/BvJSJSr4/ec-fast-ow850-watl-fh48-240.gif [/url]

00z Euro… Does loop in SE Bahamas and then NW while strengthening…

It was thinking about coming to south florida then decided nope, we dont do that....a week ago we were sitting on cancel season posts...now los angeles is in the cone of confusion and the Atlantic basin is producing activity

So Cal is under it's first Tropical Storm Watch...ever according to todays Hilary discussion.

[MetroMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/BvJSJSr4/ec-fast-ow850-watl-fh48-240.gif [/url]

00z Euro… Does loop in SE Bahamas and then NW while strengthening…

It was thinking about coming to south florida then decided nope, we dont do that....a week ago we were sitting on cancel season posts...now los angeles is in the cone of confusion and the Atlantic basin is producing activity

So Cal is under it's first Tropical Storm Watch...ever according to todays Hilary discussion.

It is rare indeed, the L.A. met on TWC this morning said it's the first TS watch since the 1980's at least.

[Fancy1002]

It was thinking about coming to south florida then decided nope, we dont do that....a week ago we were sitting on cancel season posts...now los angeles is in the cone of confusion and the Atlantic basin is producing activity

So Cal is under it's first Tropical Storm Watch...ever according to todays Hilary discussion.

It is rare indeed, the L.A. met on TWC this morning said it's the first TS watch since the 1980's at least.

Shouldn’t this be in the Hillary discussion, not in the global model discussion.

[lsuhurricane]

12z suite of GFS, ICON, and CMC still hitting on CAG development within 6 days.

Won't have to wait long to seek verification.

12z GFS at 7-8 days for reference:

[LarryWx]

The UKMET continues to have E MDR TCG from a non-tagged AEW next week:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.5N 18.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2023 132 14.7N 19.2W 1004 30
1200UTC 24.08.2023 144 15.8N 22.1W 1003 35
0000UTC 25.08.2023 156 17.0N 25.5W 1005 37
1200UTC 25.08.2023 168 17.6N 28.4W 1005 35

[SFLcane]

12z suite of GFS, ICON, and CMC still hitting on CAG development within 6 days.

Won't have to wait long to seek verification.

12z GFS at 7-8 days for reference:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023081812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_31.png

This area needs to be highlighted soon by nhc!

[SFLcane]

[hurricane2025]

Don’t see the gfs happening

[Lightning48]

Good afternoon 2025- What in the GFS makes you question it?

[toad strangler]

12z GFS thinks it's October

[hurricane2025]

12z GFS thinks it's October

Exactly what I was thinking lol

[MetroMike]

12z GFS thinks it's October

Exactly what I was thinking lol

Or August 2004 Hurricane Charley

[toad strangler]

12z GFS thinks it's October

Exactly what I was thinking lol

Or August 2004 Hurricane Charley

I suppose, but Charley was a AEW while this thing on the 12z GFS looks to me like far SW Caribbean origin like you would expect in October.

[lsuhurricane]

12z GEFS is highly active with development. Euro fully coming aboard will be telling.