Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 90L)

[Blown Away]

That’s another west shift from 12z.

Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.

00z Euro… Shift W, does loop in SE Bahamas then finishes moving NW… Upper conditions seem good in SE Bahamas for strengthening…

[Teban54]

That’s another west shift from 12z.

Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/BvJSJSr4/ec-fast-ow850-watl-fh48-240.gif [/url]
00z Euro… Shift W, does loop in SE Bahamas then finishes moving NW… Upper conditions seem good in SE Bahamas for strengthening…

Wow, it's been a while for the operational Euro to show a 984 mb hurricane in the Atlantic. Probably the first time this season.

[SFLcane]

00z euro ensembles bending westward…

[Blown Away]

My thoughts on all of this.

[Ianswfl]

Jeannish! Could be the big one of the season for the us.

[SFLcane]

Up to 10/30

[BobHarlem]

The lemon turned into a yellow squash at 8am. up to 30%.

[SFLcane]

Convection on the increase this morning...

[USTropics]

ECMWF continues to favor this area in the 06z run:


Meanwhile, the GFS shows a melding and forcing of vorticity just north of PR from 99L:

[Blown Away]

Starting to take shape IMO. Looks due W.

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/kGkS2fFT/gggg.gif

That's about to blast through Hispaniola.

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/DyXyv2WQ/88489515.gif [/url]
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Dzj8Wx71/97L.jpg [/url]

Starting to take shape IMO. Looks due W.

Bump to 40% incoming

[gatorcane]

Both the GFS and CMC show a large troughs digging into the Western Atlantic in the 5-10 day timeframe. The Euro is on its own with some kind of narrow ridge over the Carolinas in 8-10 days. Chances are it is heading out to sea well east of the US. There are just a few outlier ensembles showing any bend west. Let’s see if it even develops in the first place. Lots of shear over the Caribbean and islands. Development is certainly possible if it can get into the area just north of the Bahamas and points north.

[USTropics]

06z ECWMF ensembles, like gatorcane stated a large spread in possible scenarios due to a diffluent upper-level pattern over NA (and how/where this area consolidates), but definitely an uptick in strength with the 06z ensembles:

[SFLcane]

18z ECWMF ensembles, like gatorcane stated a large spread in possible scenarios due to a diffluent upper-level pattern over NA (and how/where this area consolidates), but definitely an uptick in strength with the 06z ensembles:
https://i.postimg.cc/P5NgZ47p/56099502.gif

I think the gfs is out to lunch per it we are not having a hurricane this season lol. The low is already developing as you can see on the satellite. Big uptick surely on intensity on the 06z

[Blown Away]

I think it's time to tag this Invest 90L??

[SFLcane]

I think it's time to tag this Invest 90L??

Yup..

[cycloneye]

Recon for Sunday.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.0N 65.5W FOR 20/1800Z.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS has this system strengthening into a hurricane and striking Florida. Will be interesting to see if the Euro agrees on a westward shift.