Tropical Wave in the SE GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[Clearcloudz]

06Z EURO Ensembles trending further south closer to Texas and Mexico border.

[Wampadawg]

06Z EURO Ensembles trending further south closer to Texas and Mexico border.

https://i.imgur.com/PbikpB8.png

The tread has gone quite from the folks in the Houston area, not throwing shade on the folks in south Texas maybe a little envious

[cycloneye]

Strongest run from ICON with a weak to moderate storm. 1000 mbs at landfall around Corpus Christi.

[Wampadawg]

Strongest run from ICON with a weak to moderate storm. 1000 mbs at landfall around Corpus Christi.

https://i.imgur.com/Qes91Zi.gif

We meed that tail hit us

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1692560919279136889

[jasons2k]

This is a little old, Jeff sent this out at 7:30am. It’s been a busy morning, so it took me awhile to post it.

“Low chance of tropical cyclone formation remains possible over the western Gulf early to mid next week.

A tropical wave axis currently moving into the southeastern Bahamas will continue westward and reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend. As high pressure over Texas lifts northward and centers over the Midwest early next week this wave will continue westward and approach the Texas coast in the Tues/Wed period.

Overall, there has been little change with respect to development chances from the global models or their ensemble output. Some of the guidance closes off a broad weak surface low over the western Gulf while other maintain a wave axis. The possibilities range from a tropical wave axis, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm moving inland along the lower or middle Texas coast Tues or Wed. Conditions appear to be generally favorable for some slow development over the central or western Gulf, but there is dry air lurking along the US Gulf coast that could wrap into any developing system and there may be stronger wind shear over the western Gulf from the outflow aloft of powerful Hurricane Hilary in the eastern Pacific Ocean. With that said, the system will be moving over warm sea surface temperatures and systems, especially in the NW Gulf under the right conditions can tighten up just prior to landfall. This may be a situation where whatever is going to happen with any development occurs very near the coast.

Regardless of development, a surge of tropical moisture will move into the Texas coast as early as late Monday, but more likely Tues/Wed. For now, the greatest moisture looks to remain along and south of the I-10 corridor with areas north of I-10 still under the influence of the high pressure ridge over the Midwest. There will likely be a strong gradient in rain chances from south to north over the area next week with the potential for some desperately needed rainfall across the coastal locations. Will have to see how far inland the moisture and rain/bands are able to make it against the subsidence of the high to the north.

The National Hurricane Center currently is maintaining the 30% chance of tropical cyclone development with this feature next week.

As always, it is best to monitor forecasts for any changes over the next 2-4 days as this system progresses into the Gulf.”

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[LarryWx]

The UKMET (12Z) still has no GOM TC.

[Wampadawg]

The UKMET (12Z) still has no GOM TC.

Oy Vey my sprinkler bill will continue to climb!

[capNstorms]

Not much of a shift in the ECENS forecast tracks, seems to have it's mind set on mid TX landfall. Look out for RI and brown ocean effect with this one.

Where's the moisture from the brown ocean going to come from, though? Most of Texas is doing its best desert impersonation right about now...

Here in SETX I see plenty of latent heat examples come 4-5pm everyday

[LarryWx]

The UKMET (12Z) still has no GOM TC.

Oy Vey my sprinkler bill will continue to climb!

That's just one model. Some of the others have between a TD and lower end TS. Even if there's no TC, there probably still will be plentiful rainfall some areas. Actually, I wonder if it would make much difference.

[Into The Fog]

I remember Humberto (2007) it ramped up quickly in the GOM, it intensified faster than any other storm. It was quite a surprise to those of us on the coast, especially Bolivar.
Storms in the GOM do have their own minds.

[capNstorms]

I remember Humberto (2007) it ramped up quickly in the GOM, it intensified faster than any other storm. It was quite a surprise to those of us on the coast, especially Bolivar.
Storms in the GOM do have their own minds.

Maria, Harvey come to mind as well

[Nederlander]

06Z EURO Ensembles trending further south closer to Texas and Mexico border.

https://i.imgur.com/PbikpB8.png

The tread has gone quite from the folks in the Houston area, not throwing shade on the folks in south Texas maybe a little envious

It’s because it’s downright depressing.. Two summers in a row of brutal conditions with no relief. Intensity and longevity are off the charts. And it looks like the areas that need it the most will miss out.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40% in 7 days

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the southeastern Bahamas
is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week,
where a broad area of low pressure could form. Thereafter, some slow
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of
Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Wampadawg]

06Z EURO Ensembles trending further south closer to Texas and Mexico border.

https://i.imgur.com/PbikpB8.png

The tread has gone quite from the folks in the Houston area, not throwing shade on the folks in south Texas maybe a little envious

It’s because it’s downright depressing.. Two summers in a row of brutal conditions with no relief. Intensity and longevity are off the charts. And it looks like the areas that need it the most will miss out.

https://i.ibb.co/G7Z8Q0B/IMG-5547.png

It ain’t over to its over lets keep the faith I am in the drought area as well

[Wampadawg]

Perhaps this goes down as the storm everyone got wrong lol

[jaguars_22]

Unfortunately the landfall will be well south of Corpus Christi. The high wins and we fry some more. That high is a monster

[wxman57]

No surprise NHC upped percentage to 40%. They'll likely be at 70% by Sunday morning. I'm thinking 80-90% chance of at least a TD moving into lower TX coast or northern Mexico Tue pm. Probably little or no rain for us in Houston. Not much of a chance of a strong TS or H, either.

[Stratton23]

And its trends like these that make me want to move out of texas, i mean california is likely going to see rain from a tropical system while we bake, what an absolute joke

[Wampadawg]

Unfortunately the landfall will be well south of Corpus Christi. The high wins and we fry some more. That high is a monster

Curse you Dam Death Ridge!