Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 90L)

[Blown Away]

Recon for Sunday.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.0N 65.5W FOR 20/1800Z.

TW seems to be moving a little faster than the 12z model runs and still W.

[Blown Away]

Recon for Sunday.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.0N 65.5W FOR 20/1800Z.

Do we assume the NHC not favoring the recent GFS run when scheduling recon??

[cycloneye]

East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an
elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to
the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of
this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Spacecoast]

12z weaker through 144hrs. .. Maybe why NHC kept this @30%

[Ianswfl]

Recon for Sunday.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.0N 65.5W FOR 20/1800Z.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/x8kJsxmQ/60151644.gif [/url]

TW seems to be moving a little faster than the 12z model runs and still W.

VERY complex set up here. Kinda Jeanne vibes.

[cycloneye]

I think it's time to tag this Invest 90L??

Looks like nothing yet this afternoon.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Euro has a much more realistic outcome now as strong troughiness dominates the Western Atlantic not to mention quite a bit of shear until it is out of the tropical latitudes. Now it is aligned more with the GFS and CMC:

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the Euro has a much more realistic outcome now as strong troughiness dominates the Western Atlantic not to mention quite a bit of shear until it is out of the tropical latitudes. Now it is aligned more with the GFS and CMC:

https://i.postimg.cc/nL9K76hH/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-240.gif

Except that troughiness doesn't actually show up until 5 days after.. so it's not necessarily realistic since it all depends on where exactly this develops.

[gatorcane]

Also looks like just about every Euro ensemble is moving it north then NE out to sea once north of Hispaniola like the Euro op and other globals are doing. Some of the members show major hurricane too, not sure I buy that just yet. Maybe Bermuda should keep a close eye according to those ensembles. Somebody can post the image.

[Blown Away]

Looks like the Euro has a much more realistic outcome now as strong troughiness dominates the Western Atlantic not to mention quite a bit of shear until it is out of the tropical latitudes. Now it is aligned more with the GFS and CMC:

https://i.postimg.cc/nL9K76hH/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-240.gif

It might be realistic with regards to the current modeling but that would be a rare track to take for sure, that is IF this TW ever does actually develop.

Also, drilling Hispaniola down the middle played a role in a much weaker 12z Euro.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the Euro has a much more realistic outcome now as strong troughiness dominates the Western Atlantic not to mention quite a bit of shear until it is out of the tropical latitudes. Now it is aligned more with the GFS and CMC:

https://i.postimg.cc/nL9K76hH/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-240.gif

Still not sure the troughiness is going to dig down into the Caribbean far enough to get all the energy from this wave. If it stays weak it might slip through, should know by Monday and since its the system that could be a threat to the CONUS, its worth watching.

[cycloneye]

East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
An area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an
elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to
the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of
this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Blown Away]

Probably not much at the surface, but starting to get the look of consolidating.

At 8pm the NHC estimated the center @11N/54W, if there is a circulation center it’s farther west @11N/57W… JMHO

[ScottNAtlanta]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJc3chzc/goes16-vis-swir-catl.gif [/url]
Probably not much at the surface, but starting to get the look of consolidating.

At 8pm the NHC estimated the center @11N/54W, if there is a circulation center it’s farther west @11N/57W… JMHO

We should be thankful for the dry air in the MDR...we would be in a world of trouble if it wasn't there

[IsabelaWeather]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJc3chzc/goes16-vis-swir-catl.gif [/url]
Probably not much at the surface, but starting to get the look of consolidating.

At 8pm the NHC estimated the center @11N/54W, if there is a circulation center it’s farther west @11N/57W… JMHO

We should be thankful for the dry air in the MDR...we would be in a world of trouble if it wasn't there

Well, at the very least these systems will be moistening the atmosphere, helping future systems when they come along.

[SouthDadeFish]

Things I don't understand:

1) Why this isn't an Invest.

2) Why the genesis odds are so low.

But I respect NHC's expertise. We'll see.

[cycloneye]

Things I don't understand:

1) Why this isn't an Invest.

2) Why the genesis odds are so low.

But I respect NHC's expertise. We'll see.

And is close to the islands.

[cycloneye]

Good thread.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1692741081350217847




 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1692741777457811809




 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1692742207378260123




 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1692742892731744586

[Blown Away]

Things I don't understand:

1) Why this isn't an Invest.

2) Why the genesis odds are so low.

But I respect NHC's expertise. We'll see.

And is close to the islands.

And continues due W not “generally WNW” and faster than models…

[Blown Away]

AOI looking better tonight. Approaching the islands and surprised at a minimum this is not an Invest??