2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

18z ECENS… If correct some strong members over DR/PR…

[OuterBanker]

I 100% believe the 384 hr panel of the 18Z GFS. Has to be right THIS time!

Tooooo funny

[ScottNAtlanta]

I 100% believe the 384 hr panel of the 18Z GFS. Has to be right THIS time!

A stopped clock is right twice a day...GFS can be right once.
(although it has done pretty well in the EPAC)

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS with a possible Labor Day weekend spoiler inbound towards the Bahamas.


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[IcyTundra]

For the past 2 runs the GFS has developed a wave coming off of Africa this Sunday. Has decent support from the GEFS as well as the EPS. Models have been hard to trust this year but we might see at least a lemon from the NHC here in a few days.

[IsabelaWeather]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Mp8nDbn5/61-D3-C25-C-74-B1-47-DB-80-C2-6-DCC160-C6-CA9.jpg [/url]

18z ECENS… If correct some strong members over DR/PR…

Why does it take such a northward jump? Kind of unusual.

Looks exciting over here on the west side of PR if thats true.

[aspen]

The models seem to like the next two waves, one that’ll emerge tomorrow and a second that’ll emerge midweek. But it’s kind of a mess on the models; there are like half a different disturbances with various shots of development over the next 7-10 days, some of which could compete with each other, and some that are favored by different models. Perhaps we get a few NS out of this mess, or the bell ringing results in the picture becoming a little clearer.

[Category5Kaiju]

The models seem to like the next two waves, one that’ll emerge tomorrow and a second that’ll emerge midweek. But it’s kind of a mess on the models; there are like half a different disturbances with various shots of development over the next 7-10 days, some of which could compete with each other, and some that are favored by different models. Perhaps we get a few NS out of this mess, or the bell ringing results in the picture becoming a little clearer.

One thing's for certain: it's very much unlike 2022

[GCANE]

That EPAC disturbance crossing the IoT into the GoM looks interesting.

[cajungal]

Because of this death ridge and insane heat, it seems that any disturbance in the gulf isn’t going to make it to me in SE Louisiana. After Ida, definitely don’t want a cane. But haven’t had any rain since last week of July. I need a depression or maybe a tropical storm to get some rain. Not an Allison event but just a solid couple of hours of rain.

[Wampadawg]

That EPAC disturbance crossing the IoT into the GoM looks interesting.

A little hope for the parched Gulf coast just something to hang on to Death Ridge 2023 is a beast!

[cajungal]

That EPAC disturbance crossing the IoT into the GoM looks interesting.

A little hope for the parched Gulf coast just something to hang on to Death Ridge 2023 is a beast!

Prob just move to Mexico or south Texas because of the ridge and still no relief for Louisiana

[SFLcane]

Everything gets sucked into the North Atlantic like a vacuum.

[mantis83]

fish storm city baby!

[SFLcane]

[otowntiger]

00z GFS with a possible Labor Day weekend spoiler inbound towards the Bahamas.


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Not sure what you’re seeing but gfs looks pretty clear to me at the time. I only see the extreme edges of a system pretty far out in the central Atlantic on the last screen and it doesn’t look threatening.

[IcyTundra]

00z GFS with a possible Labor Day weekend spoiler inbound towards the Bahamas.


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Not sure what you’re seeing but gfs looks pretty clear to me at the time. I only see the extreme edges of a system pretty far out in the central Atlantic on the last screen and it doesn’t look threatening.

He was talking about the 0Z GFS from late last night. It was showing a hurricane in the Bahamas on Labor Day weekend but it is no longer showing it on the 12Z run.

[chaser1]

00z GFS with a possible Labor Day weekend spoiler inbound towards the Bahamas.


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Not sure what you’re seeing but gfs looks pretty clear to me at the time. I only see the extreme edges of a system pretty far out in the central Atlantic on the last screen and it doesn’t look threatening.

He was talking about the 0Z GFS from late last night. It was showing a hurricane in the Bahamas on Labor Day weekend but it is no longer showing it on the 12Z run.

Wasn't it Forrest Gump that said, ".... the Global Models are kinda like a box of chocolates; With each model run, you never quite know what you're gonna get" ??

[SFLcane]

Tc outbreak incoming.. these waves in particular are interesting

[jlauderdal]

Tc outbreak incoming.. these waves in particular are interesting

Its been active in se fla, yesterday was a bust but over achieving since midnite