ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2023081900, , BEST, 0, 155N, 351W, 30, 1007, LO

[ElectricStorm]

Starting to look a little better now with convection starting to wrap around more. Probably will become TD6/TS Emily over the next couple days. Shouldn't be anything strong. I'll be surprised if it gets above 40kts or so

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for further development of this system, and a short-lived
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds
over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Teban54]

Looks a bit worse to me in both organization and convection.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

LLC could tighten a little bit more but this is a TD.

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for further development of this system, and a short-lived
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds
over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Convection waning again near the center, however the northern part of this wave is starting to look interesting. Wonder if an LLC is trying to get going up there.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

98L is been stretched out and hit shear to the north of it making it hard to get organised.

Source- -https://col.st/lFD9F

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for further development, and
a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or so while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at
about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next
week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

AL, 98, 2023082000, , BEST, 0, 182N, 365W, 35, 1006, LO

[Teban54]

AL, 98, 2023082000, , BEST, 0, 182N, 365W, 35, 1006, LO

The race for Emily is on!

Will 98L close off a circulation first? Or will 99L grab the name by getting 35 kt winds? Or perhaps 90L will surprise all of us and develop in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard?

Find out tomorrow at nhc.noaa.gov!

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Nice burst of convection tonight. It's dealing with shear but to me it looks like it's enough to be classified as a TC, might need an ASCAT pass to confirm though. Should be short lived, but some models could be showing potential for a comeback further north in the subtropics in few days. Will be interesting to see if something like that happens.

[Teban54]

Looks like a closed LLC to me.

[Hammy]

Improved markedly over the last eight hours or so, pretty impressive.

I'm particularly fond of the name Emily (and a recently introduced character of mine) so hopefully this can be a decent ACE producer while remaining over open water if it grabs the name

[ChrisH-UK]

98L is looking in better shape but the shear is still causing it to be stretched out.

Meteosat-10 - https://col.st/mWyu1

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Earlier satellite
wind data indicated the system was producing winds up to 40 mph on
its north side. In addition, first light visible satellite suggests
the center may be becoming better defined. If these current trends
continue, a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form later today or tonight while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic. By Monday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen
over the system, and further development is not expected. For
additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.