ATL: FRANKLIN - Models

[AJC3]

Fire away, folks...

[NDG]

Not a bad shear forecast by the earlier 06z SHIPS for 90L.

[NDG]

Nearly 100% chance by EPS of becoming a TD, 40-50% of becoming a TS before reaching Hispaniola area.

[boca]

Nearly 100% chance by EPS of becoming a TD, 40-50% of becoming a TS before reaching Hispaniola area.

https://i.imgur.com/MlEiw3h.png

That’s a strong trough that would pull that due north across Hispaniola that far south.I wonder if that would actually happen.

[Blown Away]

06z EPS breaking off a few to the NW after Hispaniola now.

[Spacecoast]

Nearly 100% chance by EPS of becoming a TD, 40-50% of becoming a TS before reaching Hispaniola area.

https://i.imgur.com/MlEiw3h.png

That’s a strong trough that would pull that due north across Hispaniola that far south.I wonder if that would actually happen.

6z GEFS indicates there's a good chance....

[NDG]

Nearly 100% chance by EPS of becoming a TD, 40-50% of becoming a TS before reaching Hispaniola area.

https://i.imgur.com/MlEiw3h.png

That’s a strong trough that would pull that due north across Hispaniola that far south.I wonder if that would actually happen.

Is a mid to UL low from a result of wave breaking rotating around the US stacked heat ridge that will create a weakness to its north, the stronger it gets before reaching 70W the faster it will feel the weakness as shown by the latest EPS ensembles.

[Blown Away]

12z… Models keep drifting farther W… AEMI has realistic track, just not buying sharp NE turn from Caribbean in August… Something has to give, move farther W or no development…

[Blown Away]

12z GFS… Initiates at 1001 mb and goes WNW… Decent W shift and Cat 1/2 hurricane N of Hispaniola… JMHO, I think there is a very fine line after @126 hrs between OTS and getting blocked back W…

[gatorcane]

The GFS now showing development so appears development chances are increasing though shear and land interaction should limit significant development.

How about that trough to yank it out of the Caribbean and pull it NE or even ENE? The Bermuda high has literally been eliminated. Not something you see too often this time of year but timely indeed for the SE US and Bahamas:

[CourierPR]

The GFS now showing development so appears development chances are increasing though shear and land interaction should limit significant development.

How about that trough to yank it out of the Caribbean and pull it NE or even ENE? The Bermuda high has literally been eliminated. Not something you see too often this time of year but timely indeed for the SE US and Bahamas.

Timely only if it indeed comes to fruition.

[gatorcane]

With the absence of a Bermuda High, Bermuda might need to watch closely. GFS 0 to 174 hour loop, 500MB heights:

[Blown Away]

With the absence of a Bermuda High, Bermuda might need to watch closely. GFS 0 to 174 hour loop, 500MB heights:

https://i.postimg.cc/FzzTwBs8/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh0-174.gif

Bermuda in the crosshairs. Models keep trending 90L W even w/ the giant trough and that zig W then zag NE from deep Caribbean in August would be extremely rare. I think adding a little climatology to the modeling says points farther W.

[NDG]

No doubt the La Nina like stacked ridge over the central US will protect the US from Hilary with all those breaking waves rotating around it on its E & S sides will keep a weakness to the north of Hispaniola for 90L to take advantage of.

[Blown Away]

12z ICON… Shift W & stronger… Complex environment once 90L gets above Hispaniola, drifting around for a while and then OTS, for now.

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS… Still majority OTS after the GA’s, but first time in a while leaving a few ensembles behind in SE Bahamas..

[AtlanticWind]

Euro farther west in Caribbean thru 72hours

Turns north sharply at 96

[Blown Away]

Euro farther west in Caribbean thru 72hours

Turns north sharply at 96

12z Euro… Another shift W

[Blown Away]

Euro farther west in Caribbean thru 72hours

Turns north sharply at 96

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/QMgZbSgh/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-120.gif [/url]


12z Euro… Another shift W

[N2FSU]

12z GFS ensembles. Looks like some members don't make the sharp north turn, and even some that do hint at a NW bend at the end.


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