ATL: FRANKLIN - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9873
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Crazy track. IMO we are 1-2 model runs away from 90L getting trapped and kept in Caribbean or NW after GA’s.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wxb6GfNk/642-A4116-9-C6-F-452-B-94-C8-D1-A3-B949-CEF1.jpg [/url]
Crazy track. IMO we are 1-2 model runs away from 90L getting trapped and kept in Caribbean or NW after GA’s.
Why you say is going to get trapped?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9873
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
cycloneye wrote:Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wxb6GfNk/642-A4116-9-C6-F-452-B-94-C8-D1-A3-B949-CEF1.jpg [/url]
Crazy track. IMO we are 1-2 model runs away from 90L getting trapped and kept in Caribbean or NW after GA’s.
Why you say is going to get trapped?
90L continues moving faster almost due W when it’s expected to move WNW and won’t gain enough latitude to allow trough to tug it NE. Or it doesn’t develop and continues W into CA. Mostly it’s b/c I put a lot of value in simple climatology and current modeling does not fit.
1 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9873
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
1 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Stronger systems all recurve 958 mb is a strong hurricane.
Weaker systems could miss and there is a timing issue depicted on the latest Euro where the ridge could trap any weaker storms that do.
So no guarantee of an OTS outcome yet.
Weaker systems could miss and there is a timing issue depicted on the latest Euro where the ridge could trap any weaker storms that do.
So no guarantee of an OTS outcome yet.
1 likes
- Spacecoast
- Category 2
- Posts: 687
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Good observation(s)..
It's looks like some 12z EPS members have drifted westward, and it remains true that the stronger systems get pulled N earlier.
My observation is : Where did all the members go?
Many members (not shown) have chosen not to participate, (or were too weak).
Clearly 6z (& previous EPS runs), had close to 51 members, while the 12z has significantly less.
It's looks like some 12z EPS members have drifted westward, and it remains true that the stronger systems get pulled N earlier.
My observation is : Where did all the members go?
Many members (not shown) have chosen not to participate, (or were too weak).
Clearly 6z (& previous EPS runs), had close to 51 members, while the 12z has significantly less.
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
EPS consensus shows a lot of shear in the area just north of Hispaniola. No wonder the ensembles are generally not as strong:
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9873
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
gatorcane wrote:EPS consensus shows a lot of shear in the area just north of Hispaniola. No wonder the ensembles are generally not as strong:
https://i.postimg.cc/HLTYZg9s/eps-shear-watl-21.png
90L has a tough road with the Caribbean, land, and shear.
12z EPS has a very wide range of possibilities.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9873
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
18z GFS more reasonable with an up and out over moving way W and pulled NE from Caribbean during August. Could be nasty for DR/PR.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
18Z GFS with a 969MB hurricane clipping Halifax and landfalling in Newfoundland. Quite a shift west.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 19, 2023 5:41 pm, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes
- Spacecoast
- Category 2
- Posts: 687
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Super-ensemble....
18z GEFS:slightly stronger than 12z,through the middle of Hispaniola:
18z GEFS:slightly stronger than 12z,through the middle of Hispaniola:
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Could we see something similar to Jeanne? Weak hurricane or TS into Haiti, reorganizes after getting shredded then gets trapped and moves west? Models a couple days ago was showing this.
0 likes
- Hurrilurker
- Category 2
- Posts: 638
- Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
- Location: San Francisco, CA
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Ianswfl wrote:Could we see something similar to Jeanne? Weak hurricane or TS into Haiti, reorganizes after getting shredded then gets trapped and moves west? Models a couple days ago was showing this.
If it stays weak and more south I think it could thrive, since there’s a large pocket of very low shear over Jamaica. That could really power it up and by the time it turns north the strong shear currently over Cuba could move or dissipate.
0 likes
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4623
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
0z GFS gets to 993mb before Hispanola, and then slams Bermuda at 962mb.
Kind of an odd track on this run but if it can get north of the islands intact I think there's potential for a more significant storm.
Kind of an odd track on this run but if it can get north of the islands intact I think there's potential for a more significant storm.
0 likes
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 223
- Age: 34
- Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:29 am
- Location: Isabela, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
ElectricStorm wrote:0z GFS gets to 993mb before Hispanola, and then slams Bermuda at 962mb.
Kind of an odd track on this run but if it can get north of the islands intact I think there's potential for a more significant storm.
I wonder if this storm going up the mona channel is still a possibility. Would be interesting to see how it reacts if it did.
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
GFS still showing some deepening as it makes the north turn.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
HAFS-A shows a pretty decent storm.
HWRF does not show as strong, but lowest pressure over land (1001 before landfall, 995 after)
HWRF does not show as strong, but lowest pressure over land (1001 before landfall, 995 after)
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
12Z GFS with a hit on Halifax, Novia Scotia. I am getting somewhat concerned that this system might not just recurve out to sea as models are hinting at a large ridge building over Eastern Canada and over the Northern Atlantic:
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
12z HWRF has a disorganized named storm tomorrow morning.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests