Texas Summer 2023

[Ntxw]

GEFS through early September sends this ridge nowhere. Probably doesn't help tropical forcing is traversing Nina phases.

I'm dreaming of a wh...

[tajmahal]

Based on temperatures through August 19, Austin Camp Mabry needs to average 90.50° to tie 2011 for the hottest summer on record. So far this summer, the average is 89.35° compared to 89.50° for the entire summer of 2011.

To tie #2 2022, 84.96° is needed. To tie #3 2009, 82.04° is needed.

2023 tied 2011 for the second–warmest January 1–August 19. The average temperature was 73.5°. Number one 2017 was 74.2°.

[captainbarbossa19]

Some 110 degree readings are showing up today in SE Texas. Today will likely be a new all-time record high going back to 1900. Old record was in 1902. Pretty confident now that next year is likely going to be nothing like this year given how extreme it is.

[bubba hotep]

Meanwhile in Las Vegas, it is 71 degrees with rain currently. A high of 76 today.

Outside of Texas and Louisiana, this summer has been pretty manageable.

[jasons2k]

I don’t know if they are legit readings or not, but several stations on Wundermap are 110+ on the north side of Houston and here in Montgomery County. There is a 113 a couple of miles from me.

[BrokenGlass]

I hit 114 at my house at 3.37


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[TropicalTundra]

I don’t know if they are legit readings or not, but several stations on Wundermap are 110+ on the north side of Houston and here in Montgomery County. There is a 113 a couple of miles from me.

I would personally take some of the readings on there with a lot of salt. I saw random 120's in Dallas so widespread averages will make more sense.

[tajmahal]

Meanwhile in Las Vegas, it is 71 degrees with rain currently. A high of 76 today.

Outside of Texas and Louisiana, this summer has been pretty manageable.

Several places in New Mexico with climate records extending back at least 70 years are experiencing their hottest summers on record.

[tajmahal]

I don’t know if they are legit readings or not, but several stations on Wundermap are 110+ on the north side of Houston and here in Montgomery County. There is a 113 a couple of miles from me.

I would personally take some of the readings on there with a lot of salt. I saw random 120's in Dallas so widespread averages will make more sense.

Highs so far today at NWS sites:
112 Huntsville AP
111 College Station
110 Eagle Lake
110 Navasota AP
109 Houston Hooks AP
109 La Porte AP
108 Beaumont-Port Arthur AP
108 Cleveland
108 Houston Bush AP
108 Houston Hobby AP
108 Jasper County-Bell Field AP
107 Bay City AP
106 Beaumont Municipal AP
106 Orange County AP
97 Galveston AP

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droma ... rawsflag=3

[Cpv17]

106°F here in Wharton with a heat index of 112°F. This officially makes it the hottest day of the summer here.

[Portastorm]

Based on temperatures through August 19, Austin Camp Mabry needs to average 90.50° to tie 2011 for the hottest summer on record. So far this summer, the average is 89.35° compared to 89.50° for the entire summer of 2011.

To tie #2 2022, 84.96° is needed. To tie #3 2009, 82.04° is needed.

2023 tied 2011 for the second–warmest January 1–August 19. The average temperature was 73.5°. Number one 2017 was 74.2°.

FYI - The NWS actually average out the monthly average values for a seasonal average. They do not use the daily temps. I share this because I know in an earlier post that you were adding up the daily values.

[tajmahal]

Based on temperatures through August 19, Austin Camp Mabry needs to average 90.50° to tie 2011 for the hottest summer on record. So far this summer, the average is 89.35° compared to 89.50° for the entire summer of 2011.

To tie #2 2022, 84.96° is needed. To tie #3 2009, 82.04° is needed.

2023 tied 2011 for the second–warmest January 1–August 19. The average temperature was 73.5°. Number one 2017 was 74.2°.

FYI - The NWS actually average out the monthly average values for a seasonal average. They do not use the daily temps. I share this because I know in an earlier post that you were adding up the daily values.

I already knew that. That practice is nonsense, especially during this age of advanced supercomputers.

If one bowled everyday for three months and wanted to calculate their average over those months, they wouldn't calculate the average of each month separately and then calculate the average of the monthly averages. That would be silly.

Using the NWS method, August 21–31 needs an average temperature of 90.3 for 2023 to tie 2011.

[Portastorm]

Based on temperatures through August 19, Austin Camp Mabry needs to average 90.50° to tie 2011 for the hottest summer on record. So far this summer, the average is 89.35° compared to 89.50° for the entire summer of 2011.

To tie #2 2022, 84.96° is needed. To tie #3 2009, 82.04° is needed.

2023 tied 2011 for the second–warmest January 1–August 19. The average temperature was 73.5°. Number one 2017 was 74.2°.

FYI - The NWS actually average out the monthly average values for a seasonal average. They do not use the daily temps. I share this because I know in an earlier post that you were adding up the daily values.

I already knew that. That practice is nonsense, especially during this age of advanced supercomputers.

If one bowled everyday for three months and wanted to calculate their average over those months, they wouldn't calculate the average of each month separately and then calculate the average of the monthly averages. That would be silly.

Using the NWS method, August 21–31 needs an average temperature of 90.3 for 2023 to tie 2011.

Fair enough. Just wanted to mention it. I think we’ll end up setting a new record but we shall see.

Appreciate your focus on the data.

[wxman57]

It's so hot my avatar doesn't know what to do. Banana trees fell over and turned brown. Red oak tree is losing its leaves since we've had no rain since July 3, and only one rain day in June. GFS says the heat intensifies this week and next. I think it's warm enough for me now. I'll consider turning the thermostat down sometime in September.

[Tireman4]

It's so hot my avatar doesn't know what to do. Banana trees fell over and turned brown. Red oak tree is losing its leaves since we've had no rain since July 3, and only one rain day in June. GFS says the heat intensifies this week and next. I think it's warm enough for me now. I'll consider turning the thermostat down sometime in September.

Well now, you have enough, have you? So your tipping point is coming, young man? LOL Goodness gracious.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Tropical Storm likely to make landfall along the lower Texas coast on Tuesday.

Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening.

Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave now over the central Gulf of Mexico continues to become better organized and it is likely that a tropical cyclone is forming. While satellite and surface observations do not show any well defined surface circulation, the sharp wave axis is close to closing off a surface low. A USAF mission will investigate 91L today to determine if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.

91L will continue to move westward and approach the lower Texas coast tonight and make landfall between Corpus Christi and Brownsville on Tuesday morning. With strong high pressure over the Midwest, most of the impacts associated with this system will remain south of SE TX. In fact, one of the biggest impacts will likely be an enhancement of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening (see fire weather section below).

Tropical moisture will attempt to increase across SE TX later today, but most of this will be held to the coastal areas where a few bands will approach the coast and may move onshore this evening. This is supported by the short range guidance, but most of the activity dissipates after moving onshore and moving into increasing subsidence from the high to the north. On Tuesday moisture values increase slightly and a bit further inland however still think any wetting rainfall will be confined to the coastal locations with isolated activity up to the I-10 corridor. Rainfall amounts will generally average less than .50 of an inch across the coastal counties and maybe up to .25 of an inch toward the I-10 corridor.

Winds will back to the E and ENE today and begin to increase, especially across the coastal waters. Winds build into the 20-30kt range tonight into early Tuesday over the coastal waters with seas of 7-12ft offshore and 5-7 ft nearshore. While coastal flooding is not expected, high wave action on the Gulf facing beaches may result in wave run-up that could briefly cover beaches to near the base of the dunes early Tuesday.

Fire Weather:

Red Flag Warning in effect for all areas from 1000am to 900pm today (except Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers Counties).

As the pressure gradient tightens this afternoon with developing low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north, winds will back to the E/ENE and increase into the 10-20mph range across much of SE TX. Afternoon humidity values will fall to less than 35% for areas north of I-10 and when combined with breezy conditions and critically dry fuels in place there will be a high potential for wildfires. The ongoing very dry conditions and hot afternoon temperatures have depleted vegetation moisture to the point where nearly all fuel loads will readily burn. Fires over the weekend across eastern Texas exhibited aggressive behavior especially in pine canopies where longer sustained crown runs were noted. Additionally, fires that were previously “considered contained and out” have rekindled after several days. With winds higher than in previous days, critical fire weather conditions will be in place this afternoon and evening.

Maximum precautions should be utilized with any materials that may start a fire.






Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[utpmg]

It's so hot my avatar doesn't know what to do. Banana trees fell over and turned brown. Red oak tree is losing its leaves since we've had no rain since July 3, and only one rain day in June. GFS says the heat intensifies this week and next. I think it's warm enough for me now. I'll consider turning the thermostat down sometime in September.

wat

[South Texas Storms]

Based on the latest short-range models, I think there is a decent chance that the northern outer rainbands of the Gulf tropical storm will reach as far north as the Hill Country. SA should hopefully see at least one band, and Austin could get lucky as well. Hey, at least we finally have a chance of rain again this week!

[Iceresistance]

There's an excessive heat watch even in Minneapolis at least we're not alone

The Heat extends from Houston, TX to Minneapolis, MN and from San Angelo, TX to Louisville, KY

The ridge is huge!

[Portastorm]

Based on the latest short-range models, I think there is a decent chance that the northern outer rainbands of the Gulf tropical storm will reach as far north as the Hill Country. SA should hopefully see at least one band, and Austin could get lucky as well. Hey, at least we finally have a chance of rain again this week!

Let’s hope so. Frankly I think we need to be concerned about the fire threat tomorrow. Increased winds from the tropical system and a landscape burnt and dry as a bone. This was how the fires in 2011 started … Tropical Storm Lee moving north in Louisiana. Texas was on the dry side and had winds.