ATL: HAROLD - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Currently encountering 25 to 30kt wind shear.

No, wind shear should be around 10kt.

[lrak]

Need that rain, CCTX will be dry slotted as usual...lol

[IcyTundra]

Well heading to Port Aransas tomorrow morning for a week vacation, will see how it goes lol.

That should be far enough up the coast to avoid the worst of the rainfall and gusty winds. Probably just some rain on Tuesday for you.

[wxman57]

Seems like someone here said NHC would be up to 70% by Sunday. It'll be 90% tomorrow. Question is, do they start PTC advisories now? There is a fair chance that it may have a small area of TS wind at landfall, which would require a TS watch as of about 10am this morning. Hmm...

I have it moving ashore just north of Brownsville as a 30 kt TD around 10am Tuesday. Could be a small area of TS wind. Wind won't be any issue for TX. Rain will be welcome. Come up here to Houston, 91L!! Temperature here in SW Houston has really cooled off now. Only 101.1. Was 106 earlier. Almost makes me want to see a cold front. Almost.

[wxman57]

Well heading to Port Aransas tomorrow morning for a week vacation, will see how it goes lol.

You'll get a couple inches of rain Tuesday then the heat returns with a vengeance Wednesday.

[Tireman4]

Seems like someone here said NHC would be up to 70% by Sunday. It'll be 90% tomorrow. Question is, do they start PTC advisories now? There is a fair chance that it may have a small area of TS wind at landfall, which would require a TS watch as of about 10am this morning. Hmm...

I have it moving ashore just north of Brownsville as a 30 kt TD around 10am Tuesday. Could be a small area of TS wind. Wind won't be any issue for TX. Rain will be welcome. Come up here to Houston, 91L!! Temperature here in SW Houston has really cooled off now. Only 101.1. Was 106 earlier. Almost makes me want to see a cold front. Almost.

Oh sir, you are just a hoot. We are beyond baked and you are rubbing it in. My gracious lol

[USTropics]

Currently encountering 25 to 30kt wind shear.

No, wind shear should be around 10kt.

Shear is not detrimental to development, flow is a bit brisk in the mid-levels up to about 500mb (due to the stout pressure gradient difference) but there is no directional displacement:



As others have stated, even a stronger system will not be able to budge this ridge and move more north. There is off-the-chart high pressure over the central US currently:


The biggest detriment to development is the still sprawling/banding nature of the system and the time it has over the GOM (30-36 hours max).

[Wampadawg]

Seems like someone here said NHC would be up to 70% by Sunday. It'll be 90% tomorrow. Question is, do they start PTC advisories now? There is a fair chance that it may have a small area of TS wind at landfall, which would require a TS watch as of about 10am this morning. Hmm...

I have it moving ashore just north of Brownsville as a 30 kt TD around 10am Tuesday. Could be a small area of TS wind. Wind won't be any issue for TX. Rain will be welcome. Come up here to Houston, 91L!! Temperature here in SW Houston has really cooled off now. Only 101.1. Was 106 earlier. Almost makes me want to see a cold front. Almost.

Yea Houston is not fun at all ,and I have the AC/Water bills to prove it, disappointing that Jabba the High ruined our party

[Nimbus]

Wasn't very impressed with the wave as it came through Key West surface pressures bottomed near 29.88.
Noticed some low cloud rotation centered near 23.66 84.41 on the infrared which may be an illusion.

Upper low over Mexico is pulling moisture from Hillary around and might steer a developed circulation a little further north and feed it some moisture through the Yucatan Channel. Would need to see a big convection explosion to verify as well as model support next couple runs.

[Tailgater33]

I’d be surprised if it makes land fall north of the border. Seems the most tightening is father South than what was expected even a day ago.

[Extratropical94]

80/80 as of 8am, PTC designation incoming

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization
in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the western Gulf
of Mexico coastline on Tuesday. Interests in southern Texas and
northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as
tropical storm watches or warnings are likely to be issued later
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[wxman57]

It's about time NHC issues something. We've been issuing advisories for two days. Weak TS north of Brownsville tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2023082112, , BEST, 0, 248N, 890W, 25, 1008, DB

[Rgv20]

Saved Loop...First images of Visible Satellite.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting to note that this could become "Harold," which replaced a certain other H storm that impacted the same region 6 years ago

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well heading to Port Aransas tomorrow morning for a week vacation, will see how it goes lol.

You'll get a couple inches of rain Tuesday then the heat returns with a vengeance Wednesday.

Makes Cold Miser look like not so bad of a guy these days, huh

[Steve]

Taking shape down there in the Gulf without enough time to get really strong or anything.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

Fair chance some up the Coast in Texas might see some brief passing showers as they are pretty close to here today.
https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_ ... wiOjAuNn19

[Subtrop]

AL, 09, 2023082112, , BEST, 0, 248N, 890W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB12023 to al092023,

[Rgv20]

91L is a pretty good size system. Bring on the Rain!

[Iceresistance]

I'm seeing "PTC 9" here, is this confirmed?