ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

2pm dropped Franklin .5 degrees S from 11am.

[Ianswfl]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cLsxBM7Q/30-FF1-E08-C230-4-DF1-AE8-B-BA3489-EE4-C66.jpg [/url]

2pm dropped Franklin .5 degrees S from 11am.

Would that mean more westward track though being more south, less trof influences.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cLsxBM7Q/30-FF1-E08-C230-4-DF1-AE8-B-BA3489-EE4-C66.jpg [/url]

2pm dropped Franklin .5 degrees S from 11am.

Would that mean more westward track though being more south, less trof influences.

Yes, I would think there would be less of this E movement N of Hispaniola. 11am was 15.0 and 18z 14.3.

[aspen]

Whatever tight LLC formed yesterday afternoon has poofed away. Some of the models have been leaning towards a weaker short-term solution where Franklin turns north later and goes through Haiti, and I can potentially see that verifying now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Expect some pretty significant long-term track implications regarding wherever Franklin decides to close off a LLC.

[gatorcane]

Given the complex setup and possible center reformations, namely the interaction with Hispaniola and with the anomalously strong long-wave trough off of the US coast, Franklin may not recurve harmlessly out to sea. SE Canada should stay alert and even the eastern seaboard of the US from about the mid-Atlantic northward. While the out to sea and possible threat to Bermuda looks more likely, possible mode error in the longer ranges is still somewhat concerning.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

The shear is holding intensity down for now but the slow transit north across Hispaniola mean increased flood risks.
The CONUS got lucky this year with the trough pattern keeping this first batch of storms away in August.

[Blown Away]

Elongated N-S COC stationary @14.5N/70W…

[wxman57]

Franklin appears to have a few weak LLCs. It's struggling, for sure. Heavy rain DR and Haiti Wed and maybe into Thu. Long range track is VERY uncertain.

[Ianswfl]

Franklin appears to have a few weak LLCs. It's struggling, for sure. Heavy rain DR and Haiti Wed and maybe into Thu. Long range track is VERY uncertain.

Can you see a fl threat from him?

[cycloneye]

New convection growing.

[Hurricane2022]

New convection growing.

https://i.imgur.com/Z9J4ovt.gif

https://i.imgur.com/2vk3AuY.gif

Bye bye, LLC Of Franklin.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Not sure if it was posted previously, but for later, the Dominican Republic has radar data online now. Not sure when that was finally made available online. Just noticed now.

It's a screenshot of their display rather than being an interactive map:
https://www.idac.gob.do/radar-meteorologico/
It resides in a frame on that page. Frame URL is:
https://radar-met2.sna.gob.do/

 https://twitter.com/ONAMET_RDO/status/1693777883431358928




It's not integrated into the Caribbean radar composites:
https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 700&MAPP=1
https://www.meteo.cw/rad_comp_loop.php? ... CC&Sws=R11

[cycloneye]

New convection growing.

https://i.imgur.com/Z9J4ovt.gif

https://i.imgur.com/2vk3AuY.gif

Bye bye, LLC Of Franklin.

Why the bye bye?

[zzzh]

New convective burst. Also it's moving to the east Has that ever happened in East Caribbean in August?

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/rREPrtm.gif
New convective burst. Also it's moving to the east Has that ever happened in East Caribbean in August?

I think Frank hasn’t moved much E and it’s shear. Good timing with the convection covering up the COC and protect it a little as the shear moves in.

[Teban54]

Another massive convective burst that may be closer to the LLC:

[Hammy]

Franklin is not well organized, seems like a very broad circulation and starting to spit out mesovortices. One thing that it has going for it though, is what appears to be a fairly deep westerly moisture inflow on the southern end which could keep it just barely held together until conditions start improving

The track and satellite appearance are starting to remind me of that tropical depression in 1970 that ended up being a hurricane (near the Azores) on reanalysis

[Blown Away]

22/0530 UTC 13.7N 70.3W T2.5/2.5 FRANKLIN
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Since 5am Frank dropped a full degree to 13.7N, not sure if that is a typo?