ATL: HAROLD - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks good to ramp up.
Minimal shear, 5000 CAPE along the coast, no dry air

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS FOR SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 92.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[BobHarlem]

Decent Central Dense Overcast starting to show up now

[jaguars_22]

Where is the center in that? Looks like it’s wobbled north a bit? Possibly

[lrak]

That looks concerning. Need rain not wind.

[jaguars_22]

It’s almost like it’s getting pinched from the southeast… and pushing further north but it could be my eyes :)

[Sciencerocks]

[capNstorms]

Is that thing moving NW?

[Stratton23]

Looks like a WNW to maybe NW motion, hard to tell though

[hipshot]

It’s almost like it’s getting pinched from the southeast… and pushing further north but it could be my eyes :)

From that next video, it sure looks like it is moving more NW that forecast. I kind hope so because all of us in Texas need some rain.

[capNstorms]

going more north than what the models are showing https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=18&initfhour=114&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=698&initrange=34.817518248200:255.721904761988:17.153284671550:287.615238095168&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=240&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

[Stratton23]

Interesting

[AtlanticWind]

COC is moving straight west, just the way the convection is forming give that illusion

[Stratton23]

Convection is decnety to the north of the COC, I think we will see that COC try to move underneath that, think it will come in a little more north of model guidance

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS...
...FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 93.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is becoming better
organized. Deep convection has been increasing near the mid-level
center, with the apparent low-level center displaced on the south
side of the convective mass. The latest satellite classifications
still support an intensity of 30 kt, and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to be in the area overnight for a
more detailed look at the wind field.

The depression is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest at 16
kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the
central United States. This general motion should continue through
landfall tomorrow by midday. The guidance has shifted a bit to the
north on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows the recent
trends.

The system should strengthen soonb through landfall over the warm
Gulf waters, though its time is limited. It should be noted that
the cyclone moves inland between the 12- and 24-hour points so it is
possible that the system gets a little stronger than the forecast
intensity values below. No noteworthy changes were required to the
last NHC wind speed forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Nine is expected across
South Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash
and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
tonight through Tuesday evening.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area beginning early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 25.7N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 26.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 27.3N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 29.0N 103.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[jabman98]

It has certainly been nice to have the high clouds and breeze in Houston today. Wish we could get a few outer bands.

[SoupBone]

It has certainly been nice to have the high clouds and breeze in Houston today. Wish we could get a few outer bands.

Everything that even tries to get onshore goes poof. I don't think it's going to happen.

[Sciencerocks]

[LarryWx]

Am I reading the recon reports right? 42 knots TS?

[Sciencerocks]

Am I reading the recon reports right? 42 knots TS?

Flight level it is so far 44knt for the top sustain wind. I suspect that they will find a tropical storm.