ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Franklin is already one of the weirdest and most unpredictable storms since I started my TC obsession in 2017. Even in the short-term it just does whatever it wants. Now it seems to go... south. Or is that shear displacing the convection? Idk I'll just see what happens.

[Cachondo23]

Look’s like the ABC Islands are getting heavy rain from this TS. Crazy movements indeed.

[Blown Away]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...POORLY ORGANIZED FRANKLIN DRIFTING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 70.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Frank now W of the 5am 24 hr position by .2.

[cheezyWXguy]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...POORLY ORGANIZED FRANKLIN DRIFTING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 70.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Frank now W of the 5am 24 hr position by .2.

Honestly it feels pretty difficult to be objective on positioning at this point, I’m having a hard time seeing much evidence that this has an llc at all

[chaser1]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...POORLY ORGANIZED FRANKLIN DRIFTING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 70.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Frank now W of the 5am 24 hr position by .2.

Honestly it feels pretty difficult to be objective on positioning at this point, I’m having a hard time seeing much evidence that this has an llc at all

I think you're right. First visible appear to suggest that the LLC has detached while moving westward. For the moment, I'd venture to guess that we're looking primarily at a vigorous mid-level low and no longer truly reflecting a closed circulation at the surface. We'd need an ascat pass or recon to verify that, however. Still, I could see a new center reforming as NHC suggests in their discussion.

[us89]

I had to make a snapshot of this storm’s wind field yesterday evening for work and it was the worst storm I’ve ever had to deal with. Lots of conflicting data thanks to what appeared to be multiple competing LLCs. By the end of my shift I wasn’t sure if it was a tropical cyclone at all just because it was so disorganized with not much evidence of westerlies. I see those overnight convective bursts did not help to organize it any.

[Blown Away]

free photo upload


Frank's COC seems very broad but does look like it's still moving WNW.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1693957204003410249

[Sciencerocks]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I have created a temporary mirror of the Dominican Republic's radar imagery. The mirror will end once Franklin has passed Hispaniola.
http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live ... _republic/

Saved loop:

[cycloneye]

Today's NOAA mission is underway. Let's see if it finds a more defined center or not.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/DOrlpzj.png

12z models all think a COC reforms to the NE and that vigorous COC keeps plowing way W? Interested to see what recon finds.

[Blown Away]

If that LLC racing off to the NW maintains, the NHC track is a bust.

[cycloneye]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Mp2CpHSM/5ddc316c-6be2-45fa-8f1d-b94600915b30.gif [/url]
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3wMm6M2H/Frank.jpg [/url]

If that LLC racing off to the NW maintains, the NHC track is a bust.

Plane will find out soon if the MLC is taking over.

[Blown Away]

2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 22
Location: 15.5°N 71.4°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[Landy]

Interesting excerpt from the intermediate advisory:

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 71.4 West. Satellite
images indicate that a new center may be forming farther west, and
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is current investigating
Franklin's wind field to determine if that is the case.

Recon does support this idea.

[Sciencerocks]

[IsabelaWeather]

What is even happening with this storm lol. Imagine how bad the bust in the track would be if it continues west, looks like the LLC is racing due west right now.

I just cant imagine the NHC track being off by a vector of 90*

[Ianswfl]

Interesting excerpt from the intermediate advisory:

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 71.4 West. Satellite
images indicate that a new center may be forming farther west, and
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is current investigating
Franklin's wind field to determine if that is the case.

Recon does support this idea.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1143602076132323508/recon_NOAA3-0408A-FRANKLIN_5.png

Would this cause it to miss the weakness more and head more further west than the current models??

[Landy]

What is even happening with this storm lol. Imagine how bad the bust in the track would be if it continues west, looks like the LLC is racing due west right now.

I just cant imagine the NHC track being off by a vector of 90*

It's been a low confidence forecast all around. I guess that comes with the territory when you're dealing with a highly anomalous storm.