Slight Risk for Severe on Wednesday in NC!

[Skywatch_NC]

Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 3:10 PM EST on November 17, 2003

This outlook is for central North Carolina.

There is a risk for severe thunderstorms early Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon across central North Carolina.

.Skywarn spotters... Skywarn spotter activation may be needed across central North Carolina late Tuesday night through the afternoon hours Wednesday. At this time... it appears the severe weather threat will be greatest across central North Carolina between the predawn hours Wednesday... over the western Piedmont... through Wednesday afternoon... over the coastal plain.

.Synoptic pattern... A strong cold front will approach central North Carolina from the west Tuesday night and cross the region Wednesday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms... some possible severe... will occur out ahead of the front.

.Hazardous weather details... The greatest severe weather threat with the thunderstorms will be damaging straight line winds. These type of winds are capable of producing tornado-like damage. There is still some question on how unstable the airmass will be across central North Carolina by early Wednesday. A more stable airmass would limit the severe weather threat in spite of the favorable wind profile. If the airmass becomes unstable... there will be a greater potential for damaging winds and possible tornadoes with the severe thunderstorms.

Local law enforcement and county management officials are advised to keep close tabs on additional weather statements issued Tuesday for a better handle on the timing and potential severity of this developing weather situation.

[StormCrazyIowan]

Yep, it's a little slow, but it'll get there, and when it does, be careful!!

[weatherlover427]

I will be helping monitor this! Stay safe Eric! :o

[GAStorm]

Looks like my area is next tomorrow! We are in a moderate risk here in northern GA!!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[HeartofNC]

Any update on when this hunk of weather is going to hit the Triangle area (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill) ? During the night Tuesday, morning rush hour Wednesday or ? ? ?

Thanks,

HeartofNC

[Scott_inVA]

Any update on when this hunk of weather is going to hit the Triangle area (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill) ? During the night Tuesday, morning rush hour Wednesday or ? ? ?

Thanks,

HeartofNC

SFC OBS fairly dry there with limited precip working in today.
Certainly you'll get +RA there. GFS proggs cutoff near VA/TN/KY border so if it's that far north then convection could expand into NC/VA.

Doesn't look like anything heavy for you until overnight and tomrrow morning.

Scott

[Skywatch_NC]

Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 4:00 PM EST on November 18, 2003

...Some Strong Storms And Heavy Rain Possible Very Late Tonight Through Mid Afternoon Wednesday...

A very vigorous storm system will approach North Carolina from the west tonight and sweep across the state Wednesday. Just ahead of the incoming cold front... a band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across central North Carolina from the predawn hours through mid afternoon Wednesday.

The main threat from these storms will be straight-line winds greater than 60 mph. Isolated tornadoes are also possible within or just ahead of the band of showers and storms.

Some of the showers and storms may produce locally heavy rain and may track repeatedly across the same area. This may lead to a threat for urban flooding... particularly in low-lying and poor drainage areas... and near construction zones. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are anticipated... with locally heavier totals possible.

People are encouraged to check local media early Wednesday morning to see if any watches or warnings have been issued from the National Weather Service. Keep up with the latest weather conditions and forecasts throughout the morning and afternoon by listening to NOAA Weather Radio or local TV or radio stations.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 30_any.gif

[Dan]

I think the entire state of North Carolina could have a fairly active day of severe weather. The mountains of NC may be waking up tomorrow morning to some strong storms. The upper level energy that has caused all the bad weather is a bit slow, it is still located over Western Tennessee and Western Mississippi. Very strong dynamics in combination of a lot of moisture and upslope flow may result in a lot of rain and squally weather for the mountains of North Carolina tomorrow morning. As we get past noon, look for the action to shift into the western piedmont. For those in Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh, your best hope is for a lot of rain during the morning, which makes the atmosphere a bit more stable. Any breaks in the clouds could set things off tomorrow afternoon. For those people east of Raleigh, your prime time for nasty weather may be in the 2pm-10 pm timeframe.

[Stormsfury]

Dan,

The slowing of the system has me quite concerned for the Eastern Carolinas and SE VA ... progged destabilization may become greater than I first originally thought for these areas ... SWEAT indecies in CHS are progged to be in the 230-250 range, with CAPE running between 500-1000. (not overly high) But with an opportunity for destabilization during the afternoon and the delay puts Eastern NC (particularly) at more of a risk for some discrete supercell activity out ahead of the main squall line (which is now progged to intensify overnight into the early morning hours per SPC).

SF

[Dan]

I would agree with your worries for Eastern Carolinas. as you guys may be getting ready for severe weather, I'm getting worried about flash flooding overnight in Western North Carolina. GSP radar is showing classic upslope rains and training of rains...don't be suprised to see quite a few flood warnings issued in the next 3-6 hours. Some totals approaching 2 inches already. Flash Flood Guidance is around 2 inches.

[Dan]

Line of severe storms currently moving through the Raleigh area and extend down into the Pee Dee Region of South Carolina. Don't let that fool you, skies are trying to clear back in western north and south carolina. The upper level energy is moving in, and showers and some storms are developing over East Tennessee. The mountains may get one more shot a rough weather this afternoon. Hail may be a player in this round of weather. Then, I think after a few hours of a lull in the action, the Piedmont could see more action about Drivetime.

BTW: Flood threat that I was concerned about last night did materialize in the mountains. Widespread 3-5 rains, and have heard some reports of as much as 9 inches in the North Carolina High Country.

Keep safe everyone...

[Skywatch_NC]

A narrow squall line came through between 1-1:30 pm ET with some heavy rain and then the rest of the afternoon and now into the evening just some moderate to at times heavy rain. Had some (non-damaging) wind, also. Will check my rain gauge in the AM.

Had a tornado watch until 1 pm ET but fortunately no tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings came about from that in my county or any neighboring counties.

Eric

[Stormsfury]

Line of severe storms currently moving through the Raleigh area and extend down into the Pee Dee Region of South Carolina. Don't let that fool you, skies are trying to clear back in western north and south carolina. The upper level energy is moving in, and showers and some storms are developing over East Tennessee. The mountains may get one more shot a rough weather this afternoon. Hail may be a player in this round of weather. Then, I think after a few hours of a lull in the action, the Piedmont could see more action about Drivetime.

BTW: Flood threat that I was concerned about last night did materialize in the mountains. Widespread 3-5 rains, and have heard some reports of as much as 9 inches in the North Carolina High Country.

Keep safe everyone...

The GSP doppler estimates I viewed earlier showed the classic orographic lifting (upslope) very well ... I would have traded some of that rainfall with you. Down here in CHS, 2/3" of rain (only rain so far this month) fell as the broken squall line and secondary development this afternoon came through ... this morning's squall line was impressive in spots including a tree blown down 2½ miles to my SSW in the Kings Grant Subdivision that blocked one of the roads there ... though at my work in the Charleston area, the squall line lasted all of 5 minutes ... with a peak gust of 40 mph.

SF

[Skywatch_NC]

Received a very nice 1.15" from that system.

Eric