2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Euro is jumping onboard the Yucatan disturbance. Think we may have a player for Florida. And unfortunately, it will most likely get the dreaded "I" name. Hopefully the curse of that letter storm can be broken, and this just stay weak.

Caribbean lemon incoming!

[SouthFLTropics]

Ruh Roh... Zoinks!!!

[SFLcane]

Ruh Roh... Zoinks!!!

https://i.imgur.com/vUBgWD0.png

[SFLcane]

978mb... woah

[SouthFLTropics]

[Stormcenter]

Is it still hurricane season? Seriously though I’ll go out a
short limb here and predict the bulk of the storms
that threaten the U.S. will come in mid-late Sept.
and all of Oct.

[Ianswfl]

Cat2 big bend but at least its small not large like Ian. But just a bit of a east nudge and it's southwest florida again.

Even a compact weak cat2 hlw long would that set back Ian recovery?

[SFLcane]

EPS should been fun lol...

[SouthFLTropics]

I would think that area east of the Yucatan gets a lemon by 8:00 PM or at the very least by 2:00 AM.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694419231343858106



Andy shuts down any CAG nonsense.

[N2FSU]

12z Euro





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jr0d]

Cat2 big bend but at least its small not large like Ian. But just a bit of a east nudge and it's southwest florida again.

Even a compact weak cat2 hlw long would that set back Ian recovery?

Even a compact 2 that is not zipping along can create a devastating surge in Tampa Bay if it were to take a direct hit or slightly north.

Still a phantom storm so way too early to speculate exact landfall locations though.

Definitely worth watching of course. Further south would be tough for those rebuilding after Ian.

[Steve]

Ruh Roh... Zoinks!!!

https://i.imgur.com/vUBgWD0.png

I’m not big on the solution at that resolution. If it’s more toward Apalachicola-Panama City, you could argue for a maintaining or strengthening system coming in. Same for Tampa and south. But anything from Alligator Point down to Horseshoe Beach is almost always weaker and going to be fading at landfall. However as hot as the Gulf is, I’m hedging a little on climo.

We are only talking a week out, so we won’t have to wait long to see what happens. ICON has mostly been the leader on this. And maybe there isn’t much steering in the southern Gulf or near the SW Coast of Florida to be in a hurry. But that will get clearer too over the weekend.

[jlauderdal]

I would think that area east of the Yucatan gets a lemon by 8:00 PM or at the very least by 2:00 AM.

The chasers like the looks of that setup and location.

[SouthFLTropics]

The thing is, the Euro is not alone on this. The CMC and Icon have it also. Ironically, the GFS which typically blows up everything from a CAG is alone on an island and showing nothing.

[Jr0d]

I would think that area east of the Yucatan gets a lemon by 8:00 PM or at the very least by 2:00 AM.

The spin over Yucatan is an upper level low so it will not develop. No need for a lemon yet...

[SouthFLTropics]

I would think that area east of the Yucatan gets a lemon by 8:00 PM or at the very least by 2:00 AM.

The spin over Yucatan is an upper level low so it will not develop. No need for a lemon yet...

Lemon would start further south near Honduras. That is where the energy from this is going to come from.

[SFLcane]

That persistent eastcoast trof so far this season keeping franklin away could be florida's worse enemy if something develops down there.

[SouthFLTropics]

Take a closer look at the energy just east of Nicaragua. There is already some spin evident there. If something forms, it appears it comes out of this area.

[Ianswfl]

The thing is, the Euro is not alone on this. The CMC and Icon have it also. Ironically, the GFS which typically blows up everything from a CAG is alone on an island and showing nothing.

Gfs shows that energy next week but it's sheared out but has the moisture.