2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[boca]

Take a closer look at the energy just east of Nicaragua. There is already some spin evident there. If something forms, it appears it comes out of this area.

https://i.imgur.com/kHYbZTp.gif

Some of the models were showing this forming from the east pacific.

[SouthFLTropics]

If that UL Low near the Yucatan moves off west and Franklin continues to stay far enough away and follows his predicted track, this thing could possibly have a good outflow channel setup.

[Jr0d]

Doubtful we will see a lemon until Friday and that's only if the CMC and EURO keep showing development. The GFS does hint at something and shows disorganized storms moving NE over Florida early next week.

If the EURO, CMC, ICON and even the GFS are currently overdeveloping Franklin and consequencely under developing whatever goes into the Gulf this weekend, then we may see much stronger storm than expected, especially if conditions are favorable and baroclinic forcing happens as this moves Northeast.

Its one thing to have a long tracking storm that one has up to a week to prepare, its a different and bigger threat when a storm quickly develops and strengthens faster than expected. Hopefully this does NOT happen here but it certainly is possible.

[SFLcane]

If that UL Low near the Yucatan moves off west and Franklin continues to stay far enough away and follows his predicted track, this thing could possibly have a good outflow channel setup.

Indeed!

[SFLcane]

Pretty sure there is a lemon incoming somewere down there either at 8pm or 2am.

[Ianswfl]

Pretty sure there is a lemon incoming somewere down there either at 8pm or 2am.

Candian is a weak cat2, ICON weak TS and euro a weak cat2. Also the energy looks a tad more east IMO. I'd say Cedar Key to Cape Sable for this one. Safe bet is a cat1 or cat2. Even the ensembles suggest pretty much all members below major strength.

[HurricaneBelle]

From the Tampa Bay NWS discussion from about 45 minutes ago:

THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
WINDS PRODUCING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2
INCHES. THIS WILL EQUATE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

that's one way to put it

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BhatiaKieran/status/1694425648125632855

[Jr0d]

Pretty sure there is a lemon incoming somewere down there either at 8pm or 2am.

Maybe tomorrow, but doubtful today in my amateur opinion.

I would want to see at least 2 more model runs, especially the EURO to look for continuaity and see how the area of concern comes together in the next 12 to 24 hours to verify model guidance.

[N2FSU]

12z Euro ensembles +42hr


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Pretty sure there is a lemon incoming somewere down there either at 8pm or 2am.

Maybe tomorrow, but doubtful today in my amateur opinion.

I would want to see at least 2 more model runs, especially the EURO to look for continuaity and see how the area of concern comes together in the next 12 to 24 hours to verify model guidance.

Tend to agree consistency has been hard to come by this season. Maybe its all gone tonight at 00z infact i expect just that lol.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1694427413671743985

[BobHarlem]

Pretty sure there is a lemon incoming somewere down there either at 8pm or 2am.

Maybe tomorrow, but doubtful today in my amateur opinion.

I would want to see at least 2 more model runs, especially the EURO to look for continuaity and see how the area of concern comes together in the next 12 to 24 hours to verify model guidance.

Euro has had it in 3 out of the 4 last full runs. CMC has had it about the same too. If the GFS shows it better at 18z you can guarantee a lemon. Although we're talking Euro showing something 3-4 days out now so even a low chance lemon is probably a decent idea regardless now.

[cycloneye]

Pretty sure there is a lemon incoming somewere down there either at 8pm or 2am.

Maybe tomorrow, but doubtful today in my amateur opinion.

I would want to see at least 2 more model runs, especially the EURO to look for continuaity and see how the area of concern comes together in the next 12 to 24 hours to verify model guidance.

Euro has had it in 3 out of the 4 last full runs. CMC has had it about the same too. If the GFS shows it better at 18z you can guarantee a lemon. Although we're talking Euro showing something 3-4 days out now so even a low chance lemon is probably a decent idea regardless now.

A 0/20 to start.

[toad strangler]

I don't think the NHC will wait long on a lemon this close in. The color could mean 10% or less genesis chance. So it's not going out on a limb.

[SFLcane]

I don't think the NHC will wait long on a lemon this close in. The color could mean 10% or less genesis chance. So it's not going out on a limb.

Again i would like to see some consistency instead of showing 2-3 hurricanes once a day and then boom its all gone the next cycle. It's happened many many times this season so far. I certianly would not loose sleep waiting for the 2am euro to find a ghost town lol.

[Nuno]

I don't think the NHC will wait long on a lemon this close in. The color could mean 10% or less genesis chance. So it's not going out on a limb.

Again i would like to see some consistency instead of showing 2-3 hurricanes once a day and then boom its all gone the next cycle. It's happened many many times this season so far. I certianly would not loose sleep waiting for the 2am euro to find a ghost town lol.

The consistency lies in the signal, not the final product. More models are jumping aboard, and the genesis chance product is precisely for these situations where you can slap a 0/10% just to be safe. Like Toad said, 10% isn't going out on a limb.

[SFLcane]

I don't think the NHC will wait long on a lemon this close in. The color could mean 10% or less genesis chance. So it's not going out on a limb.

Again i would like to see some consistency instead of showing 2-3 hurricanes once a day and then boom its all gone the next cycle. It's happened many many times this season so far. I certianly would not loose sleep waiting for the 2am euro to find a ghost town lol.

The consistency lies in the signal, not the final product. More models are jumping aboard, and the genesis chance product is precisely for these situations where you can slap a 0/10% just to be safe. Like Toad said, 10% isn't going out on a limb.

Cmc and icon and not really reliable models per say. Just overnight euro had nothing. If it sticks then i will by into it.

[Visioen]

Euro developing a TC over land, that's new.

[lsuhurricane]

Introducing your 12z EPS run.