Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

[jfk08c]

https://i.imgur.com/Pj5RZbA.gif

It looks like the area of energy models are picking up on is still in the Pacific and will be crossing over tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning. I think things will become a little clearer once it actually enters the Gulf

[Ianswfl]

https://i.imgur.com/Pj5RZbA.gif

Clear spin there. Wonder if this will combine with energy from the Pacific and one big gyre from it. Seems it might form a bit more east though.

[dkommers]

I think the area the models are latching onto is just below El Salvador and Guatemala. On MIMIC you can see a good spin down there. I don't post a lot and hope I shared the image right.

[Ianswfl]

ICON 18z same as prior runs. It's the shorter 18z though but same general area as before. Weak TS end of run. 00z probably into SWFL again.

[NDG]

Andy doesn't learn, still questioning the Euro despite how well it performed on forecasting Franklin to develop before the GFS.
In the short to medium range the Euro is King, I am sure the GFS will eventually trend towards the rest of the models.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694467906447241613

[Ianswfl]

Andy doesn't learn, still questioning the Euro despite how well it performed on forecasting Franklin to develop before the GFS.
In the short to medium range the Euro is King, I am sure the GFS will eventually trend towards the rest of the models.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694467906447241613

18z gfs still shows it next wed, just sheared out once again

[NDG]

Unfortunately if anything forms in the western Caribbean the protective stacked ridge will not be there next week to protect the SE US/FL.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS shows even less vorticity than 12z on it. It'll be a toss up if the NHC puts it on the outlook.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS looks less defined than the 12Z as it moves through Western Cuba and the FL Straits. I can barely make out any vorticity. Note it starts in the EPAC and then crosses over:

[blp]

Looks like the GFS does not buy into the crossover. Vorticity completely dies out once it hits the coast. Euro keeps the energy and survives. I would imagine there is going to be some vorticity cross over. Whether it develops is another story. We are going to find out pretty soon in the next 48hrs.

18z GFS


12Z Euro


12 CMC

[weeniepatrol]

I would caution against taking genesis at face value from the models. They are struggling this year

[Spacecoast]

How often does EPAC - ATL crossovers occur? It seems rare. The only example I found was Unnamed 1902 which was further north over to Bay of Compeche.

[blp]

850mb Vorticity is pretty strong right now in that area.

[NDG]

I think I figured out why the difference between the GFS and Euro.
The GFS builds in a narrow ridge below Franklin on the Caribbean Sea which pushes west faster pushing the vorticity coming out of the EPAC inland into Guatemala. At the same time it erodes the ridge along the Gulf Coast and the SE US and a messy system lifts north towards FL.
On the other hand the Euro keeps a narrow ridge in place along the gulf coast through this weekend, it also shows a narrow ridge below Franklin but does not to push it west that much thus the vorticity staying closer to Western Caribbean Sea for a longer time until the narrow ridge breaks down early next week.

[NDG]

How often does EPAC - ATL crossovers occur? It seems rare. The only example I found was Unnamed 1902 which was further north over to Bay of Compeche.

It usually happens early in the season every so often years or late in the season as a messy sheared system, kind of unusual for this time of the year.

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS seem very active, maybe the most active run yet.

[IcyTundra]

How often does EPAC - ATL crossovers occur? It seems rare. The only example I found was Unnamed 1902 which was further north over to Bay of Compeche.

4 times as far as I know it's a really rare event.

[tolakram]

This isn't a crossover though IMO, just an area of vorticity that may or may not spark a storm. This is almost a model storm, though there does seem to be a disturbance in the general area already. 7 days is 168 hours, will be interesting to see if the NHC bites at 8PM.

EURO 168


CMC 132


ICON 120

[Chris90]

Amanda--Cristobal 2020 should be added to the list. Crossed over and made it all the way to the Midwest. The system had impressive endurance.