Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[Kingarabian]

Hope the Euro drops this. Because this is a major sleeper here.

[IcyTundra]

Can’t say I didn’t tell ya lol.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1694503265314996588?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

He's looking for anything to discredit the Euro, that's how he was when the Euro was showing Franklin to form but the GFS was not. Lol.

I don't see how he's wrong here. The Euro is having terrible consistency.

Models haven’t been great this year including the GFS. We just need to wait and see with this one.

[Wampadawg]

He's looking for anything to discredit the Euro, that's how he was when the Euro was showing Franklin to form but the GFS was not. Lol.

I don't see how he's wrong here. The Euro is having terrible consistency.

Models haven’t been great this year including the GFS. We just need to wait and see with this one.

Agreed and These Gulf Storms seem to be hard for them to get a handle early on,who know could get buried into Mexico

[AutoPenalti]

Andy hasn’t been wrong. So not sure where the bashing is coming from.

[MetroMike]

Andy hasn’t been wrong. So not sure where the bashing is coming from.

What??

[weeniepatrol]

Andy hasn’t been wrong. So not sure where the bashing is coming from.

Didn't he say that no storms forming in August was a realistic scenario within 48 hours of four August storms forming

[Teban54]

Andy hasn’t been wrong. So not sure where the bashing is coming from.

In this particular instance, while he wasn't wrong about operational Euro being inconsistent about the Caribbean system, Euro ensembles have been hinting at development for a while now.

Even himself admitted to such a possibility a week ago, roughly when ensembles began showing signals:
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1691858628490285149



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1693388607594147870

[Ianswfl]

ICOn even faster 00z! Landfall Key West area Monday night then far SWFL on Tue! Time keeps moving up. Slightly stronger 999mb this run. Time might not be in it's favor to organize with fast movement. Shifting east a tad too.

[Stratton23]

GFS has absolutely nothing, doesnt even cross over the energy

[jfk08c]

00z Canadian with a nice little rainmaker cutting up through Florida

[Ianswfl]

GFS has absolutely nothing, doesnt even cross over the energy

Actually it does on Tue, but VERY weak nothing hardly but has weak low pressure there. I'm wondering if it's shear from Franklin on these runs too! Franklin is a lot more west on this run as well.

Canadian still has a strong TS landfall Venice area, but a lot faster time frame. Monday afternoon Key West, Late evening early AM Venice area as a strong TS storm that has a sheared look on simulated IR. Think Gabrielle 2001 look in the same area. Longer it stays over water stronger it is. This run is fast so it brings it ashore as the pressures drop. It seems to organize from energy a bit more to the east that's currently along the coast of Honduras that always is spinning.

This could develop pretty fast, but good thing not enough time for an Ian or Charley type storm.

[Ianswfl]

00z Canadian with a nice little rainmaker cutting up through Florida

Moves very fast, hence doesn't have time to organize but the pressure starts to fall off steadily the hours before landfall. We're talking Monday morning possibly for the Keys and late Monday night for Venice area landfall. Time over water is key here.

If it's more organize maybe cat2 is the ceiling then.

[Ianswfl]

RGEM also showing a forming TS moving off Cuba on Sat for FL. Looks kinda sheared though. Due to warm SST and time of year maybe an Irene 99 type hurricane. Kinda lopsided.

[AtlanticWind]

The GFS usually loves to develop systems in the W carribean, now it’s
giving up on that

[Ianswfl]

NHC now 10 and 40 percent on this! Not shocked at the 10 in 48 hours. Some models like the ICON and CMC crank it up a lot sooner. CMC is fast.

[Landy]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system
is possible over the weekend and early next week, and a tropical
depression could form while it moves slowly northward across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Ianswfl]

ooz euro thru 72 a bit more east than prior runs. Similar intensity so far. weak TD at that time. Maybe a tad faster too.

[FireRat]

Already an orange, oh boy! Gonna be a battle for that I-name once again huh

[AtlanticWind]

A definite threat to somewhere in Florida
I would expect at most a minimal hurricane
but more likely a T.S.
You never know for sure this time of year though.

[Ianswfl]

A definite threat to somewhere in Florida
I would expect at most a minimal hurricane
but more likely a T.S.
You never know for sure this time of year though.

Yep. Looks like landfall around Hernando County. More east than prior runs, not shocked. I wouldn't be shocked at a landfall more around Venice. Due to the speed and some shear I agree it won't be strong. Waters are hot though. My personal opinion Big bend on down to the Keys is think of this as a Irene 1999 storm. I can see an 85mph storm maybe.

Still, for SWFL even a cat1 will still cause issues with power outages and recovery efforts.

Landfall is Wed AM. If it's SWFL like Englewood then Tue evening, Keys early Tue AM. Things are going to get going quick.