2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Ntxw]

I think the type of El Nino can also be a factor. Traditionally the central pacific based Nino's (modoki) are more favorable for the Atlantic, 1963, 2002, 2004, 2018 etc with the colder ENSO 1+2. Even 2015 was a little heavier in the west, and had a good amount of activity despite going Super. The eastern lean events for some reason, adds a factor with the mid latitude wave pattern that is beyond my comprehension but is consistent as in a prior post that isn't so favorable.

Still think we'll see systems form given sub-seasonal favorability thru about Sept ~10 before the rising motion shifts back to the Pacific and likely remains there due to growing ENSO.

[tolakram]

I'm growing increasingly tired of pro mets tweeting things that make no good logical sense. I see this as a very subjective statement and it's post like these that, regardless of credentials, cause me to ignore a source.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694074023049625763




To my eyes this is nothing short of trolling, but then that's what twitter is.

[Kingarabian]

Apparently needs to be five cat.5's lined up in the MDR for it to be considered active out there in the tropics.

[IcyTundra]

I'm growing increasingly tired of pro mets tweeting things that make no good logical sense. I see this as a very subjective statement and it's post like these that, regardless of credentials, cause me to ignore a source.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694074023049625763?s=20

To my eyes this is nothing short of trolling, but then that's what twitter is.

Part of me thinks he isn't being serious and just wants to keep the bit going.

[MarioProtVI]

I'm growing increasingly tired of pro mets tweeting things that make no good logical sense. I see this as a very subjective statement and it's post like these that, regardless of credentials, cause me to ignore a source.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694074023049625763?s=20
To my eyes this is nothing short of trolling, but then that's what twitter is.

Part of me thinks he isn't being serious and just wants to keep the bit going.

He got owned hard with his “no august storms” tweet so this is just sad

[ElectricStorm]

I'm growing increasingly tired of pro mets tweeting things that make no good logical sense. I see this as a very subjective statement and it's post like these that, regardless of credentials, cause me to ignore a source.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694074023049625763?s=20

To my eyes this is nothing short of trolling, but then that's what twitter is.

Part of me thinks he isn't being serious and just wants to keep the bit going.

Not really sure why a pro met would want to troll like that though but idk

Seems like he's always been on the conservative side but this year is a whole new level for him. I mean you would think he would learn his lesson from his previous tweets...

It also baffles me how people disregard long range models showing a strong hurricane, yet as soon as they show nothing for peak season they cancel the season I mean long range models aren't reliable no matter what they show, especially in peak season...

[Woofde]

I'm growing increasingly tired of pro mets tweeting things that make no good logical sense. I see this as a very subjective statement and it's post like these that, regardless of credentials, cause me to ignore a source.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694074023049625763?s=20
To my eyes this is nothing short of trolling, but then that's what twitter is.

Part of me thinks he isn't being serious and just wants to keep the bit going.

He got owned hard with his “no august storms” tweet so this is just sad

He rightfully deserves to be clowned for that. Almost anyone who regularly follows the Hurricane season knows that the Atlantic usually 180's in late August. Hugging the models early month when they don't show anything for later on is dumb. They do that almost every year, and outside of rare flukes (2022), they are always wrong.

[gatorcane]

A few Cape Verde systems on the long-range CFS, all recurve into the open Atlantic. Model output through Sept 23:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&m=cfs

[LarryWx]

A few Cape Verde systems on the long-range CFS, all recurve into the open Atlantic. Model output through Sept 23:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&m=cfs

As you know, most do, especially in El Niño and more-so in Sept vs August.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1694162658939879451

[CyclonicFury]

I'm growing increasingly tired of pro mets tweeting things that make no good logical sense. I see this as a very subjective statement and it's post like these that, regardless of credentials, cause me to ignore a source.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694074023049625763?s=20

To my eyes this is nothing short of trolling, but then that's what twitter is.

My biggest issue with Hazelton is he constantly seems to use anecdotal evidence to claim the MDR is unusually dry and hostile rather than looking at the real data. Late last month he claimed that July hadn't been favorable in the MDR in recent years, when it is almost never favorable for significant TCs that early. Looking at this season, relative humidity has been above normal in the MDR since the start of June at 500mb, 600mb, and 700mb. Precipitable water at 1000mb has also been above normal in the MDR.

500mb


600mb


700mb


1000mb precipitable water


So by every metric, the MDR has been more moist than normal so far this season.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353




Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353

Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

People said the same thing in 2021 after Peter and Rose underperformed. Peter in particular was a massive bust by the models, almost all of which made it a long-tracking MDR major. Then came Sam.

The same conversation happened in 2022 after Earl peaked as a Cat 2 when NHC called for a Cat 4 peak (and that was after an actual storm-free August). Then came Fiona and Ian.

If today was September 23, such conversations will have greater value. But it's not.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353

Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

People said the same thing in 2021 after Peter and Rose underperformed. Peter in particular was a massive bust by the models, almost all of which made it a long-tracking MDR major. Then came Sam.

The same conversation happened in 2022 after Earl peaked at a Cat 2 when NHC called for a Cat 4 peak (and that was after an actual storm-free August). Then came Fiona and Ian.

If today was September 23, such conversations will have greater value. But it's not.

I think there's an incorrect perception of what a typical MDR is. It doesn't instantly start pumping out a train of major hurricanes once peak season starts. Remember the Atlantic averages 2-3 majors total in a season, and they often aren't even in the MDR. Every year has waves that fail to develop at peak, it's not necessarily a sign of something being off. Most years will have several named storms form in the MDR, but only one or two becoming a hurricane east of the Caribbean. Seasons like 1995 and 2004 are not a "normal" MDR, even 2005 had a fairly weak MDR east of the Caribbean.

2017 had nothing strong in the MDR until Irma at the very end of August. 2019 and 2021 ended up having two MDR hurricanes each in September, including a C4. The strongest MDR storms, at least recently, have been in September.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353

Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

People said the same thing in 2021 after Peter and Rose underperformed. Peter in particular was a massive bust by the models, almost all of which made it a long-tracking MDR major. Then came Sam.

The same conversation happened in 2022 after Earl peaked at a Cat 2 when NHC called for a Cat 4 peak (and that was after an actual storm-free August). Then came Fiona and Ian.

If today was September 23, such conversations will have greater value. But it's not.

I think there's an incorrect perception of what a typical MDR is. It doesn't instantly start pumping out a train of major hurricanes once peak season starts. Remember the Atlantic averages 2-3 majors total in a season, and they often aren't even in the MDR. Every year has waves that fail to develop at peak, it's not necessarily a sign of something being off. Most years will have several named storms form in the MDR, but only one or two becoming a hurricane east of the Caribbean. Seasons like 1995 and 2004 are not a "normal" MDR, even 2005 had a fairly weak MDR east of the Caribbean.

2017 had nothing strong in the MDR until Irma at the very end of August. 2019 and 2021 ended up having two MDR hurricanes each in September, including a C4. The strongest MDR storms, at least recently, have been in September.

Case in point if september is going to be busy we should surely start seeing some noise in the long range modeling towards the end of this month.

[ElectricStorm]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353

Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

I mean 2009 only made it to the I storm and we just had the H storm and it's Aug 23, not really seeing the 2009 comparison other than +ENSO.

And the fact they focus on the 1 invest that didn't develop out of 5 and even that one still technically has a chance

[tolakram]

As soon as I see activity show up on the models I'll let you know.



This is not the models thread, just used as an example. These could all bust as well, but the narrative that nothing is showing up will need to be changed if things start showing up.

[Edwards Limestone]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353

Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

It's a shame this guy is a pro met (is he?)...I'm not sure the atmospheric sciences (or any sciences) are his cup of tea given his obvious subjectivity, bias, and opinion present in his Tweets.
He's just looking for more followers/clicks. "Feelings" have no place in this arena.

Hopefully he isn't issuing any products that people are actually depending on for safety.

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353

Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

It's a shame this guy is a pro met (is he?)...I'm not sure the atmospheric sciences (or any sciences) are his cup of tea given his obvious subjectivity, bias, and opinion present in his Tweets.
He's just looking for more followers/clicks. "Feelings" have no place in this arena.

Hopefully he isn't issuing any products that people are actually depending on for safety.

He's a pro and probably pretty good. I started this so I apologize, I didn't want to bash a pro met, but instead point out that tweeting non objective analysis as a pro can be a bad look.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694334971173884135

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694336352039436601

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694337523164532857

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694339657192923353

Here's the daily bustcast by Andy.

It's a shame this guy is a pro met (is he?)...I'm not sure the atmospheric sciences (or any sciences) are his cup of tea given his obvious subjectivity, bias, and opinion present in his Tweets.
He's just looking for more followers/clicks. "Feelings" have no place in this arena.

Hopefully he isn't issuing any products that people are actually depending on for safety.

He's a pro and probably pretty good. I started this so I apologize, I didn't want to bash a pro met, but instead point out that tweeting non objective analysis as a pro can be a bad look.

In my opinion tweeting in general is a bad look...it's a cesspool over there.