Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[Iceresistance]

CMC has a 992 mb TS into Florida, but it strengthens into a Nor'easter.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgIzJ.gif

[SFLcane]

LarryWx, 12z UKMET is up.

https://i.imgur.com/GvCYfu3.jpg

Thanks, Luis. So, the 12Z UKMET (typically overly conservative model with winds) is significantly stronger than the 0Z (partially due to being over water longer) with a TS instead of just a TD. Also, instead of it moving NE across S FL, it moves NE from the FL Big Bend across N FL into the Atlantic.

Larry can you map the track?

[LarryWx]

LarryWx, 12z UKMET is up.

https://i.imgur.com/GvCYfu3.jpg

Thanks, Luis. So, the 12Z UKMET (typically overly conservative model with winds) is significantly stronger than the 0Z (partially due to being over water longer) with a TS instead of just a TD. Also, instead of it moving NE across S FL, it moves NE from the FL Big Bend across N FL into the Atlantic.

Larry can you map the track?

No, Adrian, sorry I can't. So, instead I described the track based on the coordinates. The maps will take awhile longer to be released as the text comes out much earlier.

[SFLcane]

Thanks, Luis. So, the 12Z UKMET (typically overly conservative model with winds) is significantly stronger than the 0Z (partially due to being over water longer) with a TS instead of just a TD. Also, instead of it moving NE across S FL, it moves NE from the FL Big Bend across N FL into the Atlantic.

Larry can you map the track?

No, Adrian, sorry I can't. So, instead I described the track based on the coordinates. The maps will take awhile longer to be released as the text comes out much earlier.

No worries, Comes in around what latitude at fl?

[gatorcane]

A weak to moderately strong tropical storm looks possible but it actually would be welcome news for the west coast of Florida due to how dry the summer has been.

[hohnywx]

Larry can you map the track?

No, Adrian, sorry I can't. So, instead I described the track based on the coordinates. The maps will take awhile longer to be released as the text comes out much earlier.

No worries, Comes in around what latitude at fl?

 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1694754175144357906

[N2FSU]

LarryWx, 12z UKMET is up.

https://i.imgur.com/GvCYfu3.jpg

Thanks, Luis. So, the 12Z UKMET (typically overly conservative model with winds) is significantly stronger than the 0Z (partially due to being over water longer) with a TS instead of just a TD. Also, instead of it moving NE across S FL, it moves NE from the FL Big Bend across N FL into the Atlantic.

Larry can you map the track?

Here is the 12z UK plotted on Foreflight, my aviation software:


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

No, Adrian, sorry I can't. So, instead I described the track based on the coordinates. The maps will take awhile longer to be released as the text comes out much earlier.

No worries, Comes in around what latitude at fl?

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1694754175144357906

Thanks forgot about that site. Looks like some rainy weather for south florida based on todays 12z models.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS verbatim shows a strung out mess through 114 hours from the Yucatan to SFL

Still a bit better than last run. Go by the ensembles

12z GEFS shows next to nothing.

[psyclone]

I will wish cast a nice cedar key slop storm happily. We need rain, a break from the heat and something to cool off those boiling shelf waters. Let it dump.

[Stormlover1970]

No worries, Comes in around what latitude at fl?

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1694754175144357906

Thanks forgot about that site. Looks like some rainy weather for south florida based on todays 12z models.

looks like the southern third of the state is ok. North of that is another story. Like Levi say it’s all about the trof and ull

[lsuhurricane]

12z GEFS are still meager on development. Those that do (around 20%) come in between LA and Tampa

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1694754175144357906

Thanks forgot about that site. Looks like some rainy weather for south florida based on todays 12z models.

looks like the southern third of the state is ok. North of that is another story. Like Levi say it’s all about the trof and ull

Bit to early to give the all clear for anyone lets wait till the low crosses over and actually developes " if " it ever does.

[IcyTundra]

As of right now conditions appear to be marginally conductive for some development. Nothing that makes me think this will blow up into a major. Perhaps a cat 1 or TS that will still bring impacts to people in the eastern Gulf.

[Extratropical94]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure centered over Central America is
forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into
early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves
slowly northward, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[GCANE]

UL conditions are starting to look good off NE Honduran coast if something fires up.

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure could use a little rain and break from this heat in far NW Florida. Guess this one will miss us to the East

[Stormlover1970]

No worries, Comes in around what latitude at fl?

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1694754175144357906

Thanks forgot about that site. Looks like some rainy weather for south florida based on todays 12z models.

that’s what my local news is showing once it is an invest we will know

[NDG]

Definitely coming together little by little, you can see the big push from the EPAC towards the NW Caribbean.

[Nimbus]

12z GFS verbatim shows a strung out mess through 114 hours from the Yucatan to SFL

It's because of the ULL on the GFS that GCANE mentioned before.

With GFS still not onboard, it's hard for me to quite yet buy into the Euro/ICON/GEM solutions but it is intriguing. Lets see if the EURO 12Z continues to advertise a TS or hurricane developing in the W. Caribbean or GOM (or if its timing changes)

Easy to make out the ULL in the BOC and the high to the east drawing up energy to where the low will form off Belize. 12Z GFS shows the low in that same area as the Euro at 72 hours.
Euro tracks the closed low northeast and landfalls near Cedar key, Florida, GFS not committed to track but shows heavy rain from Ft Myers north along the western Florida coast.
Kind of glad they kept the GFS restrained from blowing up a major tracking across Tampa Bay.