Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[lsuhurricane]

12z Euro with 990mb on landfall at Cedar Key, FL

[NDG]

Today's 12z shows a strong TS with wind gusts to hurricane force but not as strong as yesterday's 12z run.
12z GFS & 12z Euro are still worlds apart in the mid & UL environment past 48 hrs.

[SFLcane]

Today's 12z shows a strong TS with wind gusts to hurricane force but not as strong as yesterday's 12z run.
12z GFS & 12z Euro are still worlds apart in the mid & UL environment past 48 hrs.

https://i.imgur.com/42jHqBX.gif

Yea id wait really to see were things stand until it moves into the caribbean. Models till then will be all over the place

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1694781622711652586

[robbielyn]

Well a weak storm wouldn't surprise me as I have lived here 30 years and never had a properly powerful non lopsided no air entrained hurricane hit us up here directly in the tampabay area. I live in hernando county. Granted we had Irma but right on the west coast in this particular area wasn't nowhere near as bad as other areas. There is always sheer making it lopsided or dry air getting mixed into the core that has saved our area I don't know how many times. But those on the immediate coast who still get flooded would disagree with me. We had an 'A' TS storm a few years back that caused flooding a good 15 miles inland. We were also hit but seriously weakened by jeanne and francis in 2004. But a strong hurricane nope and thank goodness for that.

[BobHarlem]

12 Euro (Fasr) closest to landfall frame. When the full set comes out we'll have one closer to the landfall point. Strong TS/Cat1 probably.

[Stratton23]

A track to Florida is not set in stone yet, 12z GEPS guidance has a huge spread, yeah the EPS may make it look like florida is a guaranteed hit, that definitely is far from the case, its going to depend on the timing on this system moving north and a weak front coming in from the north, lots can still change

[lsuhurricane]

A track to Florida is not set in stone yet, 12z GEPS guidance has a huge spread, yeah the EPS may make it look like florida is a guaranteed hit, that definitely is far from the case, its going to depend on the timing on this system moving north and a weak front coming in from the north, lots can still change

Agree with you on that. Interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula ultimately decides where the lower pressure center develops. Both GFS and Euro have different outcomes with respect to entanglement. Will it pop out to the east of the peninsula or north. Track deviations are sure to occur

[AtlanticWind]

A track to Florida is not set in stone yet, 12z GEPS guidance has a huge spread, yeah the EPS may make it look like florida is a guaranteed hit, that definitely is far from the case, its going to depend on the timing on this system moving north and a weak front coming in from the north, lots can still change

It may not be set in stone but it is very likely this system would
strike somewhere in Florida from Naples to the panhandle.

[IcyTundra]

A track to Florida is not set in stone yet, 12z GEPS guidance has a huge spread, yeah the EPS may make it look like florida is a guaranteed hit, that definitely is far from the case, its going to depend on the timing on this system moving north and a weak front coming in from the north, lots can still change

GEPS has some members as far west as Texas and Louisiana I would think it would be more likely to take the eastern route to FL west coast or panhandle, but it is hard to know exactly where it is going to go until we get a low level center which we don’t have right now. Land interaction with Central America and or the Yucatán could also throw a wrench into things.

[BobHarlem]

[Stratton23]

Exactly, lets see what happens when the energy interacts with the yucatan peninsula, dont want anyone caught off guard if something unexpected happens

[lsuhurricane]

Closer look at the 12s EPS...

[robbielyn]

It always seems that the Ians and Michaels and Ivans all either hit SW FL or Panama City points or points west of Applachicola. Our area, the area in between have been very very fortunate. If we get anything in this area, it usually is a sloppy right sided dry air entrained system. Im not complaining either.

[chris_fit]

Closer look at the 12s EPS...

https://i.ibb.co/FHJ79wk/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-5.gif

Can you repost? All I see is an empty GoM

[BobHarlem]

This setup toward the end of the Euro run is setting up to be interesting too with a possible loop back. May not be the end of it if it goes over Florida.

[SFLcane]

Closer look at the 12s EPS...

https://i.ibb.co/FHJ79wk/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-5.gif

Can you repost? All I see is an empty GoM

[Spacecoast]

12z EPS Prob's:
70% prob for TD

50% prob for TS

<10% prob for Hurr

[Ianswfl]

Euro ensembles some clustered more south this run.

Two main clusters. Biggest cluster from Cedar Key to Naples, and the smaller cluster around Panama City. I would go around Tampa.

It seems the strong ensemble members are the more north ones with more time over water. South of Tampa weaker storm.

[Fancy1002]

I think I saw some 930s and 940s in the EPS ensemble.