ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2023082512, , BEST, 0, 180N, 850W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, al762023 to al932023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932023.dat

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123584

[weeniepatrol]

About time

[Zonacane]

#170 Postby Zonacane » Thu Aug 24, 2023 1:51 pm

People are way too quick to write off the Gulf

Well how about that

[Ivanhater]

Gfs with a big shift west into NE Florida. That track makes sense being August but we'll see if it's a trend

[skillz305]

Windshield wiper already in effect

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking upper TS, perhaps a Cat 1 out of this, although considering it's the Gulf I wouldn't all that surprised if it tries to ramp up more than that.

Looks like potentially another dangerous I storm...

[NDG]

Let's not forget that the GFS, for what is worth, did a good job in it forecasting Harold to intensify right before landfall.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical storm into the Northern Gulf seems most likely...Probably no more then 50-55 knots.

[toad strangler]

The west shift by the GFS is in the region colored cherry by the NHC. So not a surprise if that verifies. But yeah, stronger is a concern. Just look at the calendar.

[gatorcane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1669/etRqmB.gif

Tropical storm into the Northern Gulf seems most likely...Probably no more then 50-55 knots.

Definite spin in the NW Caribbean. The concern here is the fact the SSTs where it is headed are above normal in the low 90s. So if the environment is good and it has enough time over water, it could end up landfalling as a hurricane. We have seen before models underestimating intensity even 4-5 days out.

[Stormcenter]

Now the big question is will west shifts continue?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS really has this one ramping up quickly before landfall.

[caneman]

From what I can tell the 12Z GFS places a low at roughly 87 and NHC has is at 85 so looks out to lunch.

[NDG]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1669/etRqmB.gif

Tropical storm into the Northern Gulf seems most likely...Probably no more then 50-55 knots.

Definite spin in the NW Caribbean. The concern here is the fact the SSTs where it is headed are above normal in the low 90s. So if the environment is good and it has enough time over water, it could end up landfalling as a hurricane. We have seen before models underestimating intensity even 4-5 days out.

This morning I can't find any SSTs in the low 90s in the GOM, only during the middle of the day in the immediate beach surf. For the most part the open waters of the GOM are in the 30-31C (upper 80s) which is still very warm and the warmest of the entire western Hemisphere.

[Teban54]

Let's not forget that the GFS, for what is worth, did a good job in it forecasting Harold to intensify right before landfall.

I thought GFS didn't even show Harold forming until almost the last minute?

[GCANE]

Very nice anti-cyclone developing SE of Cozumel.
Looks to be centered 19N 86W on Water Vapor
Just need a good hot-tower now.

[Teban54]

It's been a while since I've seen an invest thread almost getting to page 2 this soon after being made. The last one was probably pre-Ian.

[Ianswfl]

Nhc position way east of where the gfs has it!

[caneman]

Nhc position way east of where the gfs has it!

I just posted that. See 5 posts up.

[Ianswfl]

Nhc position way east of where the gfs has it!

I just posted that. See 5 posts up.

Why i still think tampa area. I think an 85mph storm possible too even with the more south track