ATL: FRANKLIN - Models

[cycloneye]

Tight suite st 18z.

[Spacecoast]

Tight suite st 18z.

The UK falls in line.....

[Fancy1002]

Something here looks out of place.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/08L_intensity_latest.png

[syfr]

"Two of these are not like the others"

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1694353935690039408

[GCANE]

Pangu, an AI Weather Model, has it hitting or coming very close to New England

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/pangu ... 2308300600

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1694263939637359036

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A goes up to cat 4.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/1694489158343872663

[cycloneye]

Looks like NHC will go up to 100 kt as new peak.

[Teban54]

Looks like NHC will go up to 100 kt as new peak.

https://i.imgur.com/ZQd8lSR.png

NHC has been quite aggressive in the intensity forecast for Franklin, and has noted several times that their forecast lies at the upper end of the guidance. Which seems unusual as they're typically much more conservative with intensity.

[cycloneye]

Looks like NHC will go up to 100 kt as new peak.

https://i.imgur.com/ZQd8lSR.png

NHC has been quite aggressive in the intensity forecast for Franklin, and has noted several times that their forecast lies at the upper end of the guidance. Which seems unusual as they're typically much more conservative with intensity.

They did not go up to cat 3 at 11 AM.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is clipping Newfoundland still.

[aspen]

The 12z HAFS-A is overkill. It has a 145 kt/918 mbar Cat 5 on Monday morning. A potential OTS Cat 5 would be cool (Franklin might miss both Bermuda and Atlantic Canada), but it’s incredibly unlikely. I think a mid 4 is the highest ceiling.

[kevin]

Ehmm HAFS can you calm down a bit...
(Already mentioned above but here's an image for the archive)

[Teban54]

Looks like intensity guidance has been on a rise with more models showing a Cat 3 peak:

[ElectricStorm]

0z hurricane models are pretty wild:

HWRF peaks at 949mb/100kts (weird seeing the HWRF the weakest of the four)

HMON 931mb/around 125kts

HAFS-A has a 130kt/932mb Cat 4

HAFS-B has a 140-145kt/924mb Cat 5

I don't think this will reach Cat 5 but it does seem like Franklin's potential peak intensity is getting a little higher

[USTropics]

Will be interesting to see the 12z ECMWF ensembles for Franklin later today. The more eastward progression yesterday/this morning by the LLC has created a noticeable trend in the GFS ensembles, with ~40% of members now showing this could potentially bring impacts to Bermuda:

[gatorcane]

Euro hits Bermuda

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Will be interesting to see the 12z ECMWF ensembles for Franklin later today. The more eastward progression yesterday/this morning by the LLC has created a noticeable trend in the GFS ensembles, with ~40% of members now showing this could potentially bring impacts to Bermuda

Indeed, the trend eastward has been so pronounced I will stop tracking Franklin on my Weather Blog after the update later today, I think it is nigh impossible that Franklin will threaten the NE (NYC to Nova Scotia) with anything more than high surf. Bermuda, however, could very well be under the gun.

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon, Franklin hits Bermuda. (TD10/Idalia does too soon after)