ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

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[cycloneye]

The center is closed.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082023
A. 26/11:38:10Z
B. 23.20 deg N 066.54 deg W
C. 700 mb 3000 m
D. 989 mb
E. 050 deg 7 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 49 kt
I. 211 deg 9 nm 11:35:30Z
J. 308 deg 42 kt
K. 221 deg 21 nm 11:32:00Z
L. 68 kt
M. 039 deg 13 nm 11:42:00Z
N. 133 deg 57 kt
O. 041 deg 14 nm 11:42:30Z
P. 9 C / 3049 m
Q. 14 C / 3047 m
R. NA / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF306 1108A FRANKLIN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 041 / 14 NM 11:42:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 203 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

[NDG]

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https://i.imgur.com/D3zGsJC.gif

Amazing what 24 hrs can do, it went from an exposed LLC yesterday morning because strong shear to this this morning.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Franklin

AL, 08, 2023082612, , BEST, 0, 232N, 665W, 65, 989, HU

[aspen]

Hurricane Franklin

AL, 08, 2023082612, , BEST, 0, 232N, 665W, 65, 989, HU

I’m surprised they upgraded Franklin already. I’m a little suspicious of the high SFMR compared to FL; I was expecting a cautious compromise of 60 kt.

[TallyTracker]

The eye must have tipped the NHC in favor of 65 kts versus lower. The convection is shallow, but that is clearly a well-defined eye. Crazy how fast that happened! Just 5 pm the discussion was talking about how disorganized Franklin was!

[aspen]

Okay this is a hurricane lol. ~70 kt FL and SFMR in the NE quadrant from the NOAA plane.

[NDG]

A little suspicious that SFMR are higher than the flight level winds, very close if not a hurricane.

Edit: I just saw it got upgraded.

[aspen]

A drop in the NE eyewall found surface winds of 63 kt, so I think it’s safe to say this is a 65 kt hurricane. Quite a comeback from yesterday, when it looked like it was on the verge of getting ripped apart.

[ElectricStorm]

Both HAFS-A and HAFS-B turn this into a monster 160kt+ Cat 5

I don't see this getting anywhere near that but I think we could see a mid-range Cat 4 potentially. Looks like some new towers going up, so it should continue to take off.

[wxman57]

A drop in the NE eyewall found surface winds of 63 kt, so I think it’s safe to say this is a 65 kt hurricane. Quite a comeback from yesterday, when it looked like it was on the verge of getting ripped apart.

Shear was always forecast to be very strong until last night. Soon as that westerly jet died out, the eye formed. Fortunately, mostly a shipping threat. Hope our shipping department doesn't see that comment. They have 5000-6000 ships they're working worldwide.

[ElectricStorm]

75kt SFMR in the north eyewall this pass, pressure dropped a few mb as well

[NDG]

Franklin is a legit hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Franklin is a legit hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/PfUZc89.png

And getting more stronger. It may well reach upper end cat 4 or even 5.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is going to start packing on some ACE points

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop 988/5, supports 988mb. Looks like extrap is running a couple mb low which is pretty common. Still a slight drop from last pass though.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This isn't supposed to get to 70W until Monday, but I think it has a more westerly component in the direction it is moving right now. Will be interesting to see when it actually gets to 70w

[OuterBanker]

If Franklin can wrap all the convection to the east, it could become a rather formidable hurricane. All models have now settled on 70 W for its north movement. Yesterday it was around 68 W. Certainly, no US coast threat except for rough surf. But that could prove problematic. This is Labor Day week and the east coast beaches will be crowded. Rip currents for the entire east coast are possible.

[ElectricStorm]

77kt FL/80kt SFMR in northern eyewall now, extrap pressure 985.4 this pass

[cycloneye]

The average for the second hurricane formation is today.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1695449952833388682