ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hugo1989]

By the time recon gets there this could be a 50 to 60mph TS

If it can stay away from land it might be able to, but with it meandering around for a while down there it could end up moving over the Yucatan or Cuba. We'll see

Was thinking the same thing. In fact, if i were to guess any erratic drift or short term motion, I would guess it would be between west and NW.

Facts!!!

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is not a place you want to have a meandering system...anyone remember Wilma

[canebeard]

The Weather Channel seems to think this will most likely Top out as a Tropical Storm only, but will still bring some big soaking rains to Florida...............Let's hope it moves fast once it landfalls.

Considering that their main objective is public awareness, this is the right call until this thing develops. There are some signs that the potential intensity ceiling is higher than initially thought, but it would cause unnecessary worry to bring that the general public for now

I believe their #1 objective is to sell ad space, to as large an audience as can be encouraged for as long a time as possible.
Although they are a big source of weather info. to a large audience during hurricane threats, if anything, they tend to over-sensationalize as a matter of course. Not that many of their on-camera personnel has very much experience or knowledge of the science of tropical weather or forecasting. A few do-like Knabb.

[cycloneye]

At least, the squadron will not begin as they do in the afternoons, but this time will be on sunrise time.

[Javlin]

By the time recon gets there this could be a 50 to 60mph TS

If it can stay away from land it might be able to, but with it meandering around for a while down there it could end up moving over the Yucatan or Cuba. We'll see

Was thinking the same thing. In fact, if i were to guess any erratic drift or short term motion, I would guess it would be between west and NW.

I did notice 2X the gentleman from the NHC in the video post with his hand go from C LA to Fl make a big circle once is coincidence twice was purposeful.

[underthwx]

This is an excerpt from NWS Panama City forecast discussion. It seems as if the system, in whatever form it takes, will be moving rather quickly?.....LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Attention turns to the south with the eventual track and evolution
of the tropical system in the western Caribbean. The break in the
ridge, along with a retrograding upper low in the northern Gulf,
should allow the system to move north rather quickly towards the
northern and northeast Gulf coast Tuesday night and Wednesday. As
of this morning, NHC gives this system a 60% chance of development
in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of development in the next
7 days.

Since the system hasn`t `developed` yet, model solutions for the
track and intensity are fairly wide and uncertainty is high.
Once and if the system develops, this will greatly determine the
magnitude of impacts to the region. Its too early to pinpoint
specific impacts at this stage.

It is highly recommended to stay tuned to future forecasts and
latest updates. You can also check for updates at the NHC webpage at
http://www.hurricanes.gov along with hurricane preparedness tips at
http://www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep

And the Hydrology report from same forecast discussion.
HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

The eventual evolution and track of the tropical system in the
western Caribbean will be the main driver of any hydro impacts
by midweek. Before this feature potentially impacts the area, we
will transition more into the diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm regime this weekend. A weak frontal boundary does
make its way towards southern Alabama later this weekend which
will also aid to focus convection ahead of the tropical system.

Concerning the tropical system, appears that it will move through
on the quicker side which should limit riverine flooding though
some localized flash flooding could occur, especially in areas
that may receive heavy rainfall before its impacts arrive.

[SouthFLTropics]

Arguably the best looking Invest I think I've ever seen. If we had recon in there I'd place money that it would get classified. However, we have seen some good looking systems before that didn't get an upgrade. Plus there should be plenty of buoy obs and ship obs in the area to give at least a sense of what is going on under there.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the visible loop, the low level cloud motions show W/SW winds seems to be expanding a bit on 93L's south side. Looks can be deceiving, but it definitely seems to be organizing steadily to my eyes. Upper level outflow looks good in all directions at the moment.

[chaser1]

Whatever happrned to that NOAA drone project for East & Central Atlantic recon?? Would be great if we had one now and to send it to the south.

[ConvergenceZone]

The Weather Channel seems to think this will most likely Top out as a Tropical Storm only, but will still bring some big soaking rains to Florida...............Let's hope it moves fast once it landfalls.

Interesting they are being conservative with 93L this early on when is coming from the same place that forecasted the most aggressive season forecast.

yea they are mentioning the same aggressive shear that should put a cap on it that wxman is talking about in his posts.

[Woofde]

Judging by the low level cloud movement I would guess that this is closed and a TS now. West winds are pretty easy to find and SW winds as well. The storm is certainly getting that curly look.

[MGC]

93L looks to be organizing at a rapid pace today. The satellite presentation has improved dramatically this morning with banding becoming evident. Should not have much problem intensifying as long as 93L remains in the Yucatan Channel. Lets see how the system interacts with upper levels at it approaches the northern GOM......MGC

[underthwx]

At least, the squadron will not begin as they do in the afternoons, but this time will be on sunrise time.

True that CE....it will be interesting to see what recon discovers, whenever they arrive to the system...93L is looking healthy this morning...obviously organizing fairly quickly...

[cycloneye]

93L will not be in a hurry thanks to Franklin.

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1695480523072618574

[chaser1]

I've gotta think that the only thing holding NHC back are a couple of reliable ships obs. Seems to me though that Satellite interpretation has yet to substantiate adequate winds as measured by cloud motion.

[tropicwatch]

The winds at this buoy are currently 13-17kts out of the west-southwest. Definitely a west wind component with this system.
Station 42056 (LLNR 80) - Yucatan Basin - 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[NDG]

If this is not a TD I don't know what this is, I guess the NHC is waiting for consistent convection before pulling the trigger before a recon gets there.

[SteveM]

This may end up quite a formidable system. I suspect the extent of any land interaction over the next couple of days could play a big role in determining its future.

[underthwx]

If this is not a TD I don't know what this is, I guess the NHC is waiting for consistent convection before pulling the trigger before a recon gets there.

https://i.imgur.com/SRCOTBy.gif

Gotta agree with you there my friend, definitely spinning out there

[underthwx]

If this is not a TD I don't know what this is, I guess the NHC is waiting for consistent convection before pulling the trigger before a recon gets there.

https://i.imgur.com/SRCOTBy.gif

Agree with you. The system looks better organized than just a few hours ago. I didn't realize I posted this again, I meant to edit, my bad