ATL: IDALIA - Models

[chaser1]

GFS Trend. 93l looks roughly the same, but look at Franklin. Keeps adjusting S/W - What implications will that have on 93l?



https://i.imgur.com/9mtI4Pw.gif

It pushes the narrow ridge nose between it and 93L west or WSW, so does 93L.

https://i.imgur.com/EIicOFB.gif

Part of me wonders about that small nudging ridge between Franklin and 93. I would almost expect the ridge to erode thus suggesting a possible easward component to forward motion?

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like HMON has it going over the Yucatan for a bit, still recovers nicely though and has a strong TS in the gulf so far

[NDG]

12z HWRF is the strongest run so far in the short term.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS:

[NDG]

HAFS-B Cat 3 at hr 72.

[Ianswfl]

12z HWRF is the strongest run so far in the short term.

And more east than 6z that was into ft myers

[ElectricStorm]

bruh

[NDG]

Andy Hazelton's beloved model as a Cat 4 before landfall.

[gatorcane]

12z HWRF is the strongest run so far in the short term.

And more east than 6z that was into ft myers

Yes HWRF is much stronger and more east through 30 hours.983MB

[SunnyThoughts]

I was gonna say, HWRF would probably end up showing a cat 5 somewhere in the next few runs. Looks like that HAFS may beat it to the punch.

[AutoPenalti]

Yeah, I don’t know if that HWRF is going to verify…

[jlauderdal]

12z HWRF is the strongest run so far in the short term.

And more east than 6z that was into ft myers

Yes HWRF is much stronger and more east through 30 hours.983MB

All interests from key west to the bama ga line, hurricane season is back.

[Fancy1002]

bruh
https://i.imgur.com/BVE6Hsp.png

The return of Michael!

[Blown Away]

Andy Hazelton's beloved model as a Cat 4 before landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/EKiy14G.png

The extraordinarily rare Major into the Big Bend area.

[ElectricStorm]

HAFS-A has a Cat 3

[MississippiWx]

Pretty frightening hurricane model runs so far this cycle. Are they finally catching up to the structure and location of 93L? Meandering over the deepest warm water in the basin is a scary thought.

[Nimbus]

HAFS-A has a Cat 3
https://i.imgur.com/mIihe1e.png

“My name is Cebe Tate, and I just came from Hell.”

[Woofde]

Yikes, that's a major swing. Hopefully it's just a one model run type thing. Cannot ignore these runs though, the water is just that warm.

[USTropics]

Just a reminder, the HWRF had the third worst verification score last year for track guidance in the first 48 hours:


What is concerning is the uptick in intensity on all of the 12z guidance of the mesoscale hurricane models, where they typically are more useful:

[hohnywx]

Just a reminder, the HWRF had the third worst verification score last year for track guidance in the first 48 hours:
https://i.imgur.com/Vluqb3A.jpg

What is concerning is the uptick in intensity on all of the 12z guidance of the mesoscale hurricane models, where they typically are more useful:
https://i.imgur.com/UDSeUX0.jpg

Thank you for sharing. Can you share the link to this data on the web?