ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Poonwalker]

This could be a perfect example of the battle between El Niño and the current record Atlantic water temps. Which will win? There is certainly westerly shear to the north and also NW shear to the east. The core however is really ramping up over the warm deep water.

[MarioProtVI]

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1695494270721884416

I actually believe it was close this morning when I found a West wind. I'd be shocked if they don't pull the trigger at 5. If we are to believe the Euro , we're T-96 for landfall and effects being felt around 72.

NHC basically admitted they’ll start advisories at 5 with the latest TWO wording.

HWRF and HAFS-B both predicting high-end C4, while the rest of the models are playing catch up (all still making it a hurricane at least). All systems seem go for yet another powerful “I” named storm in the Gulf…

[Hurricane2022]

Seriously?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png

All scatterometers were pre-programmed prior to launch to miss any tropical feature that does not have a clear eye, worldwide. Didn't you know that? Once the clear eye forms, they hit it twice daily.

This is as true as an easter bunny or a 5-headed dragon

[wxman57]

Satellite imagery is suggestive of at least a TD and quite possibly a TS. However, wind to its west in Cancun is NNW at only 5 kts. We have seen systems in the past that look like tropical storms on satellite, but recon can't close off a well-defined circulation. In this case, I think it's a TD and NHC will start advisories in a couple hours. As for landfall intensity, it does look like SW wind shear increases the farther north it tracks. The environment across the NE Gulf may not be favorable enough for a hurricane to survive. Lots of southwest wind shear north of 25N. Our shift forecaster wanted to go 65-70 kts at landfall, but we talked him down from the ledge until we're more confident. Always better to start low and go stronger than the other way around.

I'm thinking NHC will call it a TD and predict landfall north of Tampa just east of the big bend as a 55kt or 60kt TS on their first advisory. Could be some significant rain and wind into the Tampa area Wednesday morning. It emerges offshore S. Carolina late Wednesday and might have a shot at becoming stronger as it tracks slowly away from the coast. We'll see in a couple of hours.

[Poonwalker]

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1695494270721884416

I actually believe it was close this morning when I found a West wind. I'd be shocked if they don't pull the trigger at 5. If we are to believe the Euro , we're T-96 for landfall and effects being felt around 72.

NHC basically admitted they’ll start advisories at 5 with the latest TWO wording.

HWRF and HAFS-B both predicting high-end C4, while the rest of the models are playing catch up (all still making it a hurricane at least). All systems seem go for yet another powerful “I” named storm in the Gulf…

[gatorcane]

Pressures gradually falling and winds increasing at a buoy in the NW Caribbean:



https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42056

[SteveM]

Looks like a tropical storm with around 35knt winds.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6966/b0DCuO.gif

Agreed. Whether it can keep over water is probably key from here. I'll be interested in what the NHC do.

[zzzh]

This could be a perfect example of the battle between El Niño and the current record Atlantic water temps. Which will win? There is certainly westerly shear to the north and also NW shear to the east. The core however is really ramping up over the warm deep water.

El Nino clearly does not create ULAC in West Caribbean.

[MarioProtVI]

Satellite imagery is suggestive of at least a TD and quite possibly a TS. However, wind to its west in Cancun is NNW at only 5 kts. We have seen systems in the past that look like tropical storms on satellite, but recon can't close off a well-defined circulation. In this case, I think it's a TD and NHC will start advisories in a couple hours. As for landfall intensity, it does look like SW wind shear increases the farther north it tracks. The environment across the NE Gulf may not be favorable enough for a hurricane to survive. Lots of southwest wind shear north of 25N. Our shift forecaster wanted to go 65-70 kts at landfall, but we talked him down from the ledge until we're more confident. Always better to start low and go stronger than the other way around.

I'm thinking NHC will call it a TD and predict landfall north of Tampa just east of the big bend as a 55kt or 60kt TS on their first advisory. Could be some significant rain and wind into the Tampa area Wednesday morning. It emerges offshore S. Carolina late Wednesday and might have a shot at becoming stronger as it tracks slowly away from the coast. We'll see in a couple of hours.

Feel like I’ve seen this exact scenario before and I did not like how it turned out…

[gulf701]

Having endured Michael, 93 has our attention. We need some rain, but zero wind.

This is what Tallahassee NWS had in its latest discussion.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Attention turns to the south with the eventual track and evolution
of the tropical system in the western Caribbean. The break in the
ridge, along with a retrograding upper low in the northern Gulf,
should allow the system to move north rather quickly towards the
northern and northeast Gulf coast Tuesday night and Wednesday. As
of this morning, NHC gives this system a 60% chance of development
in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of development in the next
7 days.

Since the system hasn`t `developed` yet, model solutions for the
track and intensity are fairly wide and uncertainty is high.
Once and if the system develops, this will greatly determine the
magnitude of impacts to the region. Its too early to pinpoint
specific impacts at this stage.

It is highly recommended to stay tuned to future forecasts and
latest updates. You can also check for updates at the NHC webpage at
www.hurricanes.gov along with hurricane preparedness tips at
www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep

[zzzh]

AL, 93, 2023082618, , BEST, 0, 211N, 861W, 25, 1006, DB,

Doubt they are going to upgrade it at 5.

[xironman]

The buoy in the channel has had strong west winds for hours

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... t=E&tz=EST

[LandoWill]

Satellite imagery is suggestive of at least a TD and quite possibly a TS. However, wind to its west in Cancun is NNW at only 5 kts. We have seen systems in the past that look like tropical storms on satellite, but recon can't close off a well-defined circulation. In this case, I think it's a TD and NHC will start advisories in a couple hours. As for landfall intensity, it does look like SW wind shear increases the farther north it tracks. The environment across the NE Gulf may not be favorable enough for a hurricane to survive. Lots of southwest wind shear north of 25N. Our shift forecaster wanted to go 65-70 kts at landfall, but we talked him down from the ledge until we're more confident. Always better to start low and go stronger than the other way around.

I'm thinking NHC will call it a TD and predict landfall north of Tampa just east of the big bend as a 55kt or 60kt TS on their first advisory. Could be some significant rain and wind into the Tampa area Wednesday morning. It emerges offshore S. Carolina late Wednesday and might have a shot at becoming stronger as it tracks slowly away from the coast. We'll see in a couple of hours.

Feel like I’ve seen this exact scenario before and I did not like how it turned out…

The Tampa shields always work, pray for those in the big bend/panhandle.

[caneman]

AL, 93, 2023082618, , BEST, 0, 211N, 861W, 25, 1006, DB,

Doubt they are going to upgrade it at 5.

If it's close enough, I think they will. We're inside of a 120 hour window and closer to 96. Need to get the word out.

[aspen]

AL, 93, 2023082618, , BEST, 0, 211N, 861W, 25, 1006, DB,

Doubt they are going to upgrade it at 5.

At the very least we should get a PTC. The 2pm TWO said that advisories will be initiated later today if development trends continue.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm thinking NHC will call it a TD and predict landfall north of Tampa just east of the big bend as a 55kt or 60kt TS on their first advisory. Could be some significant rain and wind into the Tampa area Wednesday morning. It emerges offshore S. Carolina late Wednesday and might have a shot at becoming stronger as it tracks slowly away from the coast. We'll see in a couple of hours.

[zzzh]

I'm thinking NHC will call it a TD and predict landfall north of Tampa just east of the big bend as a 55kt or 60kt TS on their first advisory. Could be some significant rain and wind into the Tampa area Wednesday morning. It emerges offshore S. Carolina late Wednesday and might have a shot at becoming stronger as it tracks slowly away from the coast. We'll see in a couple of hours.

https://imageshack.com/i/poeSGmCUj

[johngaltfla]

Wow, just happened to look up the latest on it and the model runs. This one could sneak up on people that aren't expecting such a storm in the short term.

Not our first rodeo for this happening in SW Florida. But it gets tiring. Can we just retire the letter "i" now?

[johngaltfla]

Perfect upper level conditions above 93L currently. There is nothing to hold it back as long as the disturbance remains offshore. Wish we had recon this afternoon......MGC

[wxman57]

The buoy in the channel has had strong west winds for hours

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... t=E&tz=EST

The southern band of squalls was passing earlier. It's outside the squalls now, but a SW wind is consistent with TD status. NHC may want to get recon in it before calling it a TD or TS. Anyone know when recon is scheduled?