ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

Visible Sat loop shows some dry air getting ingested into the northern area.
Hope it does not collapse.

I don't think it's dry air. It is normal for convection to decrease as DMIN approaches.

[Chemmers]

Visible Sat loop shows some dry air getting ingested into the northern area.
Hope it does not collapse.

Dosnt look like dry air on water vapor, maybe land interaction?

[ElectricStorm]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

[Iceresistance]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

There it is

[tolakram]

The tweet, official.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1695530687317819756

[tolakram]

SLIDER: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=8568&y=6293&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=natural_color&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Still no floater That new convection might just be the center, and if as organized as it looks I think the models are well behind this system. Big IF of course.

[beachnut]

... And Irma, and Charley, and probably many other storms.

Both of those taught me well ... Ian drove a nail in it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

SLIDER: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=8568&y=6293&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=natural_color&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Still no floater That new convection might just be the center, and if as organized as it looks I think the models are well behind this system. Big IF of course.

You can definitely see where the center is now. It's about 1/3 of the way between tip of Cuba and tip of Yucatan (closer to Yucatan)

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1695534217478787211

[tolakram]

SLIDER: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=8568&y=6293&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=natural_color&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Still no floater That new convection might just be the center, and if as organized as it looks I think the models are well behind this system. Big IF of course.

You can definitely see where the center is now. It's about 1/3 of the way between tip of Cuba and tip of Yucatan (closer to Yucatan)

I can't see the surface yet. On this RGB view surface will be white, MLC and higher in blue. MLC is no doubt, but do we have a single LLC, or a broad LLC with multiple vortices?

[ScottNAtlanta]

SLIDER: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=8568&y=6293&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=natural_color&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Still no floater That new convection might just be the center, and if as organized as it looks I think the models are well behind this system. Big IF of course.

You can definitely see where the center is now. It's about 1/3 of the way between tip of Cuba and tip of Yucatan (closer to Yucatan)

I can't see the surface yet. On this RGB view surface will be white, MLC and higher in blue. MLC is no doubt, but do we have a single LLC, or a broad LLC with multiple vortices?

You can see the white clouds moving south around the center

[tropicwatch]

If that is the center near the tip of Yucatan. Then it is really getting its act together. The buoy southeast of Cozumel is reporting a pressure of 1005.6mb. That also might be due to afternoon pressure drops.

[tolakram]

saved loop. Remember at a distance this is the MLC.

[jlauderdal]

Here is my favorite picture for this: this was from a week ago with the trio of Emily, Franklin, and Gert (before they developed).

https://i.ibb.co/DLbfbKd/ascat.png

I usually don't like to extend OT sidebar, but...

This. Is. Legendary.

Board warning for ajc3

[AnnularCane]

AL, 93, 2023082618, , BEST, 0, 211N, 861W, 25, 1006, DB,

Doubt they are going to upgrade it at 5.

At the very least we should get a PTC. The 2pm TWO said that advisories will be initiated later today if development trends continue.

The pace of contractions have eased and dialation seems to have paused at about 4 centimeters. I dont see any evidence of our little girl's (Idalia) head cresting quite yet LOL. Seriously though, it appears that cloud tops have recently warmed. I still havn't seen any bouy data indicating wind gusts over 20 mph. NHC could have kicked this to a TD hours ago, thus I'm not sure why they would suddenly choose to do so an hour from now. There's typically a delay between pressure falls and increase in wind speed. Perhaps they will put off any upgrade until they at least begin to see new convection and colder cloud tops fire up over the supposed center, along with some evidence of any increase in wind speeds. Maybe that occurs by mid or late evening. As it is, I dont think their quite at the window where PTC advisories have to be hoisted yet.

Looks like labor has started progressing again.

[zzzh]

OK this is concerning

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/coKEqhk.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/j6PvtxA.jpg
OK this is concerning

Please tell me that this does not have an eye-like structure already...

[HurricaneBelle]

OK this is concerning

A TD with an "eye", yikes

[Coolcruiseman]

Here we are end of August, start of the “height” of hurricane season and right on cue this pops up on the gulf’s doorstep.

[psyclone]

Slop storm cancel. Something tells things might be about to go sideways fast