ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

https://i.imgur.com/coKEqhk.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/j6PvtxA.jpg
OK this is concerning

Please tell me that this does not have an eye-like structure already...

It does not have an eye-like structure. Okay?

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/AnthonyDuarte03/status/1695528487438725170

[IcyTundra]

OK this is concerning

A TD with an "eye", yikes

It might be a TS soon hard to tell without recon.

[Iceresistance]

Slop storm cancel. Something tells things might be about to go sideways fast

Also, with the cursed "I" name, my gut tells me that this could get really ugly really quickly. It's heading towards waters above 30°C

This has the chance to become very strong very quickly if it can take advantage of the very warm waters in the GoM

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[dukeblue219]

It's not an eye, folks.

[toad strangler]

Slop storm cancel. Something tells things might be about to go sideways fast

Gotta respect the calendar for sure. Said it a couple times already, The 8/20 to 9/9 near 3 weeks is that unique time in A Basin tropics. Not saying TD 10 goes sideways but the date says beware!

[HurricaneBelle]

The forecast track is into the Big Bend/Eastern Panhandle with these wind probabilities:

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 12(32) X(32)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 17(34) X(34)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 26(39) 2(41)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) 1(44)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 31(48) 1(49)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)[

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 1(35)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13)

[Iceresistance]

Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatán, and a TS Watch for Western Cuba.

Expected to peak at 65 knots in the next 3 days per Forecast Advisory

[zzzh]

It is not an eye. The important thing here is that banding wraps into a compact core. With a structure like this and low shear, high sst, RI is very likely.

[USTropics]

TD10 is well ahead of the current model forecasts in terms of development, there are clear banding features developing this evening:


Quite a different look then what the 12z ECMWF run had forecasted:

[Iceresistance]

It is not an eye. The important thing here is that banding wraps into a compact core. With a structure like this and low shear, high sst, RI is very likely.

Thanks for clarifying

[REDHurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/coKEqhk.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/j6PvtxA.jpg
OK this is concerning

Please tell me that this does not have an eye-like structure already...

It does not have an eye-like structure. Okay?

Yeah, if anything it looks like the convection on the east side of the storm right at the tip of western Cuba is fighting for dominance -- an eye-like structure might take at least another day or two as the storm has to consolidate a large area of energy before it can undergo any kind of RI

[TallyTracker]

Deep convection is waning due to the diurnal minimum. I expect convection to return overnight at the which time intensification will commence. The structure looks fantastic though so it shouldn’t have a problem producing deep convection.

[LandoWill]

The people in the panhandle must be getting tired of storms. us down here in tampa, always panic like its coming, and then it never does. If i lived up there near the stateline. i'd be paying a lot of attention.

[Iceresistance]

Please tell me that this does not have an eye-like structure already...

It does not have an eye-like structure. Okay?

Yeah, if anything it looks like the convection on the east side of the storm right at the tip of western Cuba is fighting for dominance -- an eye-like structure might take at least another day or two as the storm has to consolidate a large area of energy before it can undergo any kind of RI

We are not sure about it since there is evidence of banding features per USTropics post that was previously done.

[cycloneye]

Important excerpt from discussion.

The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.

[AnnularCane]

OK this is concerning

A TD with an "eye", yikes

It might be a TS soon hard to tell without recon.

Would being near land help? They would probably be able to get reports from that, I think. Granted she's not right over land, but...

[aspen]

Hurricane peak and no land interaction until Florida in the first advisory. Yeah that doesn’t look good.

[ConvergenceZone]

Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatán, and a TS Watch for Western Cuba.

Expected to peak at 65 knots in the next 3 days per Forecast Advisory

Got to give wxman credit. He nailed it saying that the NHC would go with 65 knots at landfall. High end tropical storms seems likely, but I won't be shocked if it makes it to Cat 1 in spite of the shear expected.