ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#401 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2023 3:59 pm

First track. From around Bradenton to Destin:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 26, 2023 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#402 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 26, 2023 3:59 pm

saved loop
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#403 Postby zzzh » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:03 pm

Image
Pressure near 1005.0mb on a buoy that is ~100miles from TD10.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#404 Postby SconnieCane » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:05 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatán, and a TS Watch for Western Cuba.

Expected to peak at 65 knots in the next 3 days per Forecast Advisory


Got to give wxman credit. He nailed it saying that the NHC would go with 65 knots at landfall. High end tropical storms seems likely, but I won't be shocked if it makes it to Cat 1 in spite of the shear expected.


They go with 65 kts at the 72-hour forecast point, which is at about the latitude of Fort Myers. Plenty of water between there and landfall.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#405 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:05 pm

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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#406 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:11 pm

Looks like maybe a large "gyre" type system shaping up.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#407 Postby mantis83 » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:14 pm

can't go wrong with the NHC, they're the best at this stuff!
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#408 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:19 pm

Here is a great article discussing Michael's interaction with a ULL to it's west as it moved through the Gulf and why it rapidly intensified. The big kicker seems to storm-relative shear vector and warm vs. cold air advection ahead of the storm.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.07.009

Can any mets here describe the presumptive shear vector Idalia will interact with vs. Michael and if dry air/cold air advection will affect it on approach?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#409 Postby Gums » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:19 pm

Salute!

Hope that probability track is too far west, Gator, and hoping the thing orbits down near Yucatan long enuf for the cold front we have coming down here to help.

Hard to predict very well by anybody once the storms get into the Gulf. I have seen some follow the black line put out by NHC, and then have seen some do a harsh turn or even to a circle.

Anyway, land fall in the big bend between St Marks and Perry has least potential for loss of life and actual high $$$ damage. It's one reason it is not well-developed.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#410 Postby TomballEd » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:20 pm

I don't think anything that looks like an eye to me. NHC forecast of minimal Cat 1 about 12 hours before landfall, assuming it is correct (and they are the professionals) and no reason looking at GFS forecast antiyclone aloft to think it wouldn't still be strengthening.

0Z models should have better data to work off of, as far as intensity and track. This is a focus on the cone situation.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#411 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:21 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatán, and a TS Watch for Western Cuba.

Expected to peak at 65 knots in the next 3 days per Forecast Advisory


Got to give wxman credit. He nailed it saying that the NHC would go with 65 knots at landfall. High end tropical storms seems likely, but I won't be shocked if it makes it to Cat 1 in spite of the shear expected.


They go with 65 kts at the 72-hour forecast point, which is at about the latitude of Fort Myers. Plenty of water between there and landfall.


Now that I re-read it, I think they are calling for 65 knots at PEAK though, so I'm assuming that means that they expect shear much more after that. If they aren't calling for 65 knots at peak, feel free to correct me. But then again I guess there isn't much difference between a 65 MPH or a 75 mph at landfall.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#412 Postby skillz305 » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:24 pm

Trending back East, boys. Windshield wiper in full effect.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#413 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:25 pm

I am betting some hot towers will fire up around sunset
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#414 Postby SconnieCane » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:25 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Got to give wxman credit. He nailed it saying that the NHC would go with 65 knots at landfall. High end tropical storms seems likely, but I won't be shocked if it makes it to Cat 1 in spite of the shear expected.


They go with 65 kts at the 72-hour forecast point, which is at about the latitude of Fort Myers. Plenty of water between there and landfall.


Now that I re-read it, I think they are calling for 65 knots at PEAK though, so I'm assuming that means that they expect shear much more after that. If they aren't calling for 65 knots at peak, feel free to correct me. But then again I guess there isn't much difference between a 65 MPH or a 75 mph at landfall.


All they say about intensity is this, which is prudent at this juncture, IMO:

The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#415 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:26 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Got to give wxman credit. He nailed it saying that the NHC would go with 65 knots at landfall. High end tropical storms seems likely, but I won't be shocked if it makes it to Cat 1 in spite of the shear expected.


They go with 65 kts at the 72-hour forecast point, which is at about the latitude of Fort Myers. Plenty of water between there and landfall.


Now that I re-read it, I think they are calling for 65 knots at PEAK though, so I'm assuming that means that they expect shear much more after that. If they aren't calling for 65 knots at peak, feel free to correct me. But then again I guess there isn't much difference between a 65 MPH or a 75 mph at landfall.

They don't mention increasing shear after that
The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.


We'll see what the hurricane models have for the 18z runs but the last cycle all showed it strengthening all the way up to landfall. Considering how much space is between the 65kt point and land I would imagine it would probably get a little stronger than that.

That being said it's still a bit far out to know what exactly will happen. The first step is avoiding any land interaction with the Yucatan or Cuba like the current NHC track has. If it can do that I think it opens the door for a stronger system later in the gulf.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#416 Postby Ianswfl » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:27 pm

skillz305 wrote:Trending back East, boys. Windshield wiper in full effect.


Yea, ICON went from Citrus county on 12z run to Bradenton landfall 18z.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#417 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:28 pm

Now that I re-read it, I think they are calling for 65 knots at PEAK though, so I'm assuming that means that they expect shear much more after that. If they aren't calling for 65 knots at peak, feel free to correct me. But then again I guess there isn't much difference between a 65 MPH or a 75 mph at landfall.


They're calling for a 75MPH storm at the forecast point in 4 days off of SW Florida, and the next position in the forecast isn't until 24 hours later, inland in the Big Bend area. This isn't necessarily the peak because it could strengthen between 26.3N and 31.5N in those 24 hours before making landfall.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#418 Postby TomballEd » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:31 pm

They don't publicly predict peak, unless I am very wrong. Ballpark half day before landfall at minimal Cat1 and strengthening from the Tuesday morning forecast tells me they are expecting something stronger, my unofficial guess they are thinking 75 knots at landfall. Likely center location should help 0Z forecasts, and a plethora of upper level and low level recon data, tomorrow's 0Z models should clarify far more. Landfall location could be Tampa Bay to Mobile, IMHO, and I suspect the landfall strength may be a bit higher than Cat 1. HAFS models unlikely, but give an upper range.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#419 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:33 pm

gatorcane wrote:First track. From around Bradenton to Destin:

https://i.postimg.cc/HshVDykY/205449-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png


That’s a very rare hurricane track into the Big Bend arm pit. Just like with Ian, I’ll play the big odds that doesn’t happen. JMHO
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#420 Postby REDHurricane » Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:34 pm

Center appears to be trying to consolidate just slightly northeast of the current NHC best track location of 21.1ºN, 86.1ºW

Image
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