ATL: IDALIA - Models
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TomballEd
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Possibly TD10, NHC actually has control over the automated designations and can change them up until advisories post.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
MetroMike wrote:This just dropped
https://i.imgur.com/S7EK0hC.png
Definitely shows a decent hit coming for the Gulf Coast. Higher resolution models and mesoscales ought to start telegraphing structure. Those rain channels can set up on the east side so even if it’s a NE Gulf hit, you know some people on the peninsula are going to see extreme rainfall.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
18Z ICON has shifted east some through 57 hours so far. Perhaps the west shifts are over:
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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Almost all of the hurricane models are now making this a strong hurricane at landfall both the HAFS-A and HAFS-B both make this a sub 950mb storm at landfall
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Stormlover1970
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
The nhc does not.ScottNAtlanta wrote:Almost all of the hurricane models are now making this a strong hurricane at landfall both the HAFS-A and HAFS-B both make this a sub 950mb storm at landfall
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skillz305
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
18z ICON way East. Landfall in TB. Lil worries for SWFL (I’m on EC CFL)
Last edited by skillz305 on Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Stormlover1970 wrote:The nhc does not.ScottNAtlanta wrote:Almost all of the hurricane models are now making this a strong hurricane at landfall both the HAFS-A and HAFS-B both make this a sub 950mb storm at landfall
This is the models thread...not the NHC forecast thread
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
skillz305 wrote:18z ICON way East. Landfall in TB. Lil worries for SWFL (I’m on EC CFL)
18Z ICON loop:
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
ICON landfall
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skillz305
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
18z ICON landfall
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Hurricanes: Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Katrina 2005 - Wilma 2005 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024Re: ATL: TEN - Models
ICON model landfall around Bradenton. Landfall 12z was Citrus County so a sizeable shift back south!
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Ianswfl wrote:ICON model landfall around Bradenton. Landfall 12z was Citrus County so a sizeable shift back south!
That landfall is in Pinellas and Tampa Bay. Not Bradenton
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
caneman wrote:Ianswfl wrote:ICON model landfall around Bradenton. Landfall 12z was Citrus County so a sizeable shift back south!
That landfall is in Pinellas and Tampa Bay. Not Bradenton
Yep, looks like St Pete to me
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
caneman wrote:Ianswfl wrote:ICON model landfall around Bradenton. Landfall 12z was Citrus County so a sizeable shift back south!
That landfall is in Pinellas and Tampa Bay. Not Bradenton
hard to tell on the models splitting hairs by a few miles, Bradenton is on Tampa Bay anyway.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
18Z ICON track through FL peninsula and strengthening up until landfall and then again over the Atlantic:
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Happy hour has started, Hrmph on the init. This is the perfect time for the GFS to go haywire, a day before recon data gets into the model.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Doing the expected counter clockwise loop
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
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