ATL: IDALIA - Models
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
ICON is way too far south IN MY OPINION. Not to mention it's very weak. it would be a good scenario though(from a strength standpoint), but I think it's too far south.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Franklin is 6MB stronger on this run of the GFS. We will see how that impacts the track of TD #10. A stronger Franklin might mean the ridge building west over the Caribbean to push TD north is slightly weaker/delayed.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
I thought it was on the move but 54 hour plot backs up a bit.
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M a r k
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
When the GFS is consistently Left of the other globals it usually results in a big correction.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
weaker and west so far
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Did I say west, now east and south, sharp turn.
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M a r k
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
At 78 hours the GFS is slightly southeast of the 12Z. Caribbean ridge slightly weaker because Franklin is stronger at least the first few days.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
4 run trend
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M a r k
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Hurricaneman
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
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M a r k
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:Gfs is correcting towards the other models
Notable shift southeast by the GFS comparing the 12Z and 18Z:
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PavelGaborik10
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:Gfs is correcting towards the other models
Honestly I think meeting in the middle is the more likely outcome. Some of the runs from the Euro & Icon in particular have come in real, real west the last day or two.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
6 hours later and well inland, really takes off.
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M a r k
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Keldeo1997
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
GFS down trending on the shear?
Last edited by Keldeo1997 on Sat Aug 26, 2023 5:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
18Z GFS has landfall very close to where the official NHC forecast has it.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
Trend. Note 982 is a pretty consistent strength prediction, though inland.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
To show the magnitude of the right shift.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models
So, just a thought. GFS showing only a 5 mb drop in pressure in 60 hr's? Given the significant amout of organization that occured today and assuming no near term land interaction then i'm not sure what mitigating factor would prevent moderate deepening resulting faster pressure falls (especially given the bath water below). Upwelling? Misalligned LLC/MLC? Increase in shear? A stronger storm at 60 hr's. then what the GFS is depicting "may" impact the further downstream GFS forecast.
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Andy D
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