ElectricStorm wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:SconnieCane wrote:
They go with 65 kts at the 72-hour forecast point, which is at about the latitude of Fort Myers. Plenty of water between there and landfall.
Now that I re-read it, I think they are calling for 65 knots at PEAK though, so I'm assuming that means that they expect shear much more after that. If they aren't calling for 65 knots at peak, feel free to correct me. But then again I guess there isn't much difference between a 65 MPH or a 75 mph at landfall.
They don't mention increasing shear after thatThe tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.
We'll see what the hurricane models have for the 18z runs but the last cycle all showed it strengthening all the way up to landfall. Considering how much space is between the 65kt point and land I would imagine it would probably get a little stronger than that.
That being said it's still a bit far out to know what exactly will happen. The first step is avoiding any land interaction with the Yucatan or Cuba like the current NHC track has. If it can do that I think it opens the door for a stronger system later in the gulf.
Guess I"m just going with Met Wxman said, which is a very sheared system at landfall. There is also no indication that the expected Shear suppose to abate at all...